Attorney in Texas
Attorney in Texas's JournalGreat read on 538 this morning: "Donald Trump Is Running A Perpetual Attention Machine'
Here's an excerpt from the insightful analysis:
What’s interesting is how Trump seemed to go out of his way after the debate to ensure that he’d remain the center of attention, with his tirade against Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly (a feud that he’s since resurrected). That tended to drown out most of the coverage of whether, say, Fiorina or Kasich had gained momentum after the debate, perhaps preventing them from having the sort of feedback loop of favorable attention that can sometimes trigger surges in the polls.
I don’t know whether this was a deliberate strategy on Trump’s behalf. But if so, it’s pretty brilliant. Trump is perhaps the world’s greatest troll, someone who is amazingly skilled at disrupting the conversation by any means necessary, including by drawing negative, tsk-tsking attention to himself. In the current, “free-for-all” phase of the campaign — when there are 17 candidates and you need only 20 percent or so of the vote to have the plurality in GOP polls — this may be a smart approach. If your goal is to stay at the center of attention rather than necessarily to win the nomination, it’s worth making one friend for every three enemies, provided that those friends tell some pollster that they’d hypothetically vote for you.
Is it sustainable? In the long run, probably not. There are lots of interesting candidates in the GOP field, whether you’re concerned with the horse race, their policy positions or simply just entertainment value. Sooner or later, the media will find another candidate’s story interesting. Cruz has a lot of upside potential in the troll department, for instance, along with better favorability ratings than Trump and a slightly more plausible chance of being the Republican nominee
Salon: "Sanders the populist, Trump the fascist: The truth about comparing two unlikely presidential
contenders":Comparisons between Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are often lazy and sloppy—a point Chris Hayes humorously underscored recently by demonstrating how both men pronounce “huge” the same distinctive way—but there is an element of truth involved: they represent two different forms of a worldwide populist phenomena that’s become much more prominent since the Great Recession hit in 2008, promoting a dramatic rise in discontent with national and global elites, whose basic competence is severely in doubt.
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In sharp contrast, Trump’s shadowboxing with mythic phobias—Obama’s birth certificate last cycle, immigrant rapists this time around—is much more of a cathartic performance, aimed only at a select part of the electorate, Sarah Palin’s “real Americans.” Digging down into the details, greater overlap between the two appears on some issues—both oppose cutting Social Security and Medicare, for example—but not on others: Sanders supports raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour, while Trump recently said, “I think having a low minimum wage is not a bad thing for this country.”
We’ll return to the overlap in a moment. But what’s most significant is the profound difference in the very nature of their thinking. Sanders’ no-nonsense thinking is deeply informed by his engagement with reality—both the reality of decades working with constituents to help solve their problems, and the reality of how other countries have created better lives for their own citizens—universal healthcare, paid sick leave and family leave, etc. Trump’s thinking, in sharp contrast, is soaked in fantasies, both those shared with GOP base voters, and his own personal set of narcissistic fantasies expressed in trumpeting his own self-importance.
Latest Polling - Sanders doing as well as Bush + Walker + Rubio
Here is a link.
This poll is not an anomaly. In other recent polling, Sanders is doing as well as Trump + Cruz.
On what planet does the Democratic Party need someone other than Sanders to offer a viable alternative to Clinton?
I love Biden, but the position he is inquiring about has already been filled.
Clinton isn't failing (you're thinking of Bush) and Sanders already provides a viable alternative
(Sanders has principled policy disagreements with Clinton whereas Biden agrees with Clinton on 98% of the key issues and is slightly to Clinton's right on those few issues where they disagree).
In sum, no Democrats need a "viable alternative" to replace the "failing" Clinton campaign; the MSM just needs to generate stories to sell newspapers and to provide hand-wringing topics for the shouting-at-each-other Sunday political talk shows.
Can we move on from the suggestion that some other candidate needs to jump in the race to fill the role that Sanders is already filling with intelligence and grace?
Can we also move on from the right-wing talking point that Clinton's campaign is failing because she used a private email server (just like George W. Bush, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, and Martin O'Malley)?
Walker on birthright citizenship: 3 positions, 7 days
Source: WISN (ABC affiliate)
WASHINGTON (CNN) —Scott Walker on Sunday took his third position within seven days on Donald Trump's proposal to end birthright citizenship, this time saying he opposes Trump and supports the policy.
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ABC's George Stephanopoulos pressed further, asking: "So you're not seeking to repeal or alter the 14th Amendment?"
"No," Walker said. "My point is, any discussion that goes beyond securing the border and enforcing the laws are things that should be a red flag to voters out there, who for years have heard lip service from politicians and are understandably angry because those politicians haven't been committed to following through on those promises."
It's a different answer than the one Walker gave Monday [when a]sked by MSNBC's Kasie Hunt whether birthright citizenship should be ended, he said then: "Yeah, absolutely, going forward."
Read more: http://www.wisn.com/politics/walker-on-birthright-citizenship-3-positions-7-days/34871316
Donald Trump in Alabama Pitches His ‘Non-Politician’ Cred
Source: Bloomberg
Trump also delivers anti-lobbyist message, saying maybe he should take money offered recently by an unidentified man “How about if I take his money, but in the end I screw him and don’t do anything?”
Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-08-22/donald-trump-in-alabama-pitches-his-non-politician-cred
Wow. What a creep!
538: "This Is How Bernie Sanders Could Win"
Excerpts from the analysis:
Presidential primaries can be about momentum. You win Iowa, you win New Hampshire, and the sky’s the limit. You saw that with John Kerry in 2004 on the Democratic side. You saw that with Jimmy Carter in 1976. Carter, especially, was someone who sort of came out of nowhere — the outsider candidate, if you will. So the first thing that Sanders likely needs is to win the first caucus and the first primary.
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Let me say one thing that has changed in recent Democratic politics. If Gallup’s numbers are to be believed, there are more self-identified liberals than at any point in the last 15 years among the Democratic base:
And, of course, Sanders is doing best among self-identified liberals. So he has more of a chance this year than in past years.
LATEST BREAKING POLL: Oprah Winfrey 25%, Joe Biden 12%, Bernie Sanders 10%, Hillary Clinton 9%,
O'Malley 6%, Chaffe 6%, Webb 5%.
This is current Republican polling with Trump's name replaced with Winfrey, Carson replaced with Biden, Cruz replaced with Sanders, Bush replaced with Clinton, Huckabee replaced with O'Malley, Walker replaced with Chaffee, and Fiorina replaced with Webb.
Ask yourself -- what would this say about our candidates if this was a real Democratic poll?
I would be weeping for the weakness of our great candidates if Oprah Winfrey had better than twice the support of our candidate with the next highest number (keeping in mind that the number 2 candidate is also someone who cannot possibly win).
How sad would it be if the candidate who truly inspired our base could only manage 10% in the polls?
How broken would our party have to be for the candidate with most party-establishment endorsements to sink to fourth place at 9% support?
Ask yourself -- what would this say about our voters if they hated our candidates so much that they were flocking to a television star with no political experience rather than embracing one of our candidates?
PS - I like Oprah and I apologize in advance for scandalously associating her in any way with Trump; I picked Oprah because I think if Democratic voters were to flock to a celebrity (which I do not believe they would), Oprah is as likely as any celebrity to fill that role. I thought about putting Jon Stewart in that role because I love Stewart, but that seemed like a poor analogy because Stewart is a well known student of politics and public policy and so the analogy fails because Trump has not got a similar background (i.e., the person who currently leads all the Republican polls does not have the policy credentials equal to an out-of-work comedian).
Trump pushes Cruz out of the lead in Texas
Source: Houston Chronicle
A new poll released Thursday puts Trump in the lead with 24 percent of support among registered Republicans in the state, pushing Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas into the second spot at 16 percent....The poll could be bad news for Cruz, who enjoyed a commanding lead with 20 percent in the June Texas Politics Project poll. It's also more bad news for former Gov. Rick Perry, who was second at 12 percent in the previous poll, but who now has dropped to 4 percent, at the back of the pack with Scott Walker and Mike Huckabee.
In third place after Cruz in the new poll is Ben Carson, at 12 percent. Jeb Bush follows at 9 percent, a troubling fourth place standing for an establishment favorite and scion of the Bush family in Texas.
Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio are tied at 5 percent, and Rand Paul, another candidate with Texas ties, didn't rate a mention at all.
Read more: http://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/election/national/article/Trump-pushes-Cruz-out-of-the-lead-in-Texas-6456734.php
Those who know Perry and Cruz best don't much like them.
Q poll: Trump, Clinton ahead in Fla., with great news for Biden
Source: Tampa Bay Times
A new swing-state poll by Quinnipiac University finds that Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton are the clear winners in party primaries in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but Vice President Joe Biden does as well as Clinton in general election matchups against Republicans.
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Clinton received support of 48 percent of Florida Democrats followed by 15 percent for Sanders and 11 percent for Biden, with 17 percent undecided. Among Republicans, Trump gets 21 percent, with 17 percent for Bush and 11 percent each for Rubio and Ben Carson. No other candidate tops 7 percent, with 8 percent undecided.
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When Florida Republicans were asked which candidate they would definitely not support, 29 percent chose Trump, 17 percent chose Bush and Rand Paul and 16 percent chose Chris Christie.
Read more: http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/q-poll-in-florida-favors-clinton-bush-but-good-news-for-biden/2242033
Florida's Ex-Gov. Bush is losing to Trump in Florida?!?
Florida Sen. Rubio cannot poll ahead of Trump, Bush, or Carson - a doctor with no political experience or any ties to Florida?!?
I guess the Florida Republicans who know Bush and Rubio best are not sold on the Bush or Rubio campaigns. This shocks me.
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