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Attorney in Texas

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Member since: Sun Aug 2, 2015, 11:10 AM
Number of posts: 3,373

Journal Archives

Sanders winning in New Hampshire (by 10% in newest poll), Maine, Utah, Vermont (plus Iowa update)!

Here are the most recent polls in Maine, New Hampshire, Utah, and Vermont.

In Iowa, Clinton has the lead but Sanders has the momentum.

A report on ABC News this morning confirms that Sanders is ahead of the Obama 2008 pace in Iowa:

Pollster Ann Selzer, who conducts the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll, noted one similarity between the contest today and in 2007. In Selzer's October poll, Clinton was leading the field, as she was then. But Selzer also noted that Obama held a double-digit lead with independents eight years ago and Sanders holds an even larger lead with that group this time.

"On paper you would say Sanders is in a better place" than Obama, the eventual Iowa winner, in 2007, Selzer said. But the question, she said, is whether he has the organization to turn that potential into caucus votes.


Iowa is notoriously difficult to poll because it is a caucus state, but -- historically -- the Des Moines Register has a pretty good track record, and here is a graph of the Des Moines Register's polling results (it is shown two ways: with moderate smoothing and then, to better capture the trend, smoothed -- I include both so the Give Hillary Her Crown Now! squad can get twice as pissy about it):

MODERATE SMOOTHING



SMOOTHED


Either way, Clinton's trend is downward and Sanders' trend is upward.

After the Des Moines Register, the second most active live phone pollster working in Iowa is Quinnipiac, and that polling confirms this trend:

MODERATE SMOOTHING (Quinnipiac)



Sometimes the Give Hillary Her Crown Now! squad likes to crow about internet polls and cherry picking among pollsters and polling methods, and CBS has commissioned some internet polling in Iowa, so here is that polling:

MODERATE SMOOTHING (CBS/YouGov)



Looking at all these polls together confirms that Clinton's path is generally downward and Sanders' path forward in Iowa is up!

SMOOTHING TO HIGHLIGHT TRENDS (Quinnipiac and CBS/YouGov)



SMOOTHING TO HIGHLIGHT TRENDS (Quinnipiac and CBS/YouGov and Des Moines Register)



MODERATE SMOOTHING TO HIGHLIGHT HIGHS AND LOWS IN POLLS (Quinnipiac and CBS/YouGov and Des Moines Register)


Ultimately, I prefer the Des Moines Register polling and I'm not much of a fan of the type of internet-based polling that CBS commissioned, but whether you look to the Des Moines Register or Quinnipiac or CBS/YouGov or a combination of these pollsters, Iowa looks like a close race. The coronation squad does not want to hear this, but the higher they raise expectations, the more momentum Sanders will take out of Iowa.

Things look good in Iowa and GREAT in New Hampshire! Here is the polling trend-line in New Hampshire:


Here is the same polling graphed with the smoothing minimized (to show the individual ups-and-downs in the polls rather than the general trend lines shown in the smoothed polling above):


Have a great weekend!
Posted by Attorney in Texas | Fri Dec 11, 2015, 08:25 PM (8 replies)

Rolling Stone: "2015: The Year in Bernie Sanders"

Link to the great article, "2015: The Year in Bernie Sanders -- Sanders emerged as a national political phenomenon this year"; excerpt (with excellent photos):



The rise of Bernie Sanders has no doubt been one of the more fascinating political stories of 2015 – a year that was not short on fascinating political stories. When he announced his run in the spring, few thought the self-described democratic socialist would be such a strong opponent against Hillary Clinton, but his impact in the race has been significant: He's raised significant money, without relying on super PACs, and has pushed Clinton to the left in very real ways.
...







Posted by Attorney in Texas | Fri Dec 11, 2015, 07:34 PM (21 replies)

Time: "Hillary Clinton and the Democrats’ National Security Problem"

link; excerpt:

Not a single question about national security. Several times Clinton tried to steer her answers toward the topic, but the crowd resisted–and it occurred to me that Clinton was actually taking a risk with the Democratic base when she talked about what had to be done to defeat ISIS. The latest poll shows her trailing Bernie Sanders 50-40% in New Hampshire.

What were the questions about? Genetically modified food. Climate change. Gun control. Whether Exxon Mobil suppressed information about carbon pollution. Voting rights. Mental health. Student loans. Immigration (pro-family preservation, not border control). Preserving social security and Medicare. Taking care of veterans (with the implicit assumption that veterans are victims of the military-industrial complex).

Dear Secretary Clinton:

We are not scared of Daesh. We know that we're 187 times more likely to starve to death in America than be killed by terrorism, we're over three times more likely to be killed by lightening strikes than by a terrorist, and our odds of being killed by a falling asteroid are about the same as our odds of being killed by a terrorist.

You are thinking of Republicans who curl up into a shivering fetal ball at the threat of terrorism. We're Democrats, and we're not afraid.

Now, let's talk about that starvation statistic.
Posted by Attorney in Texas | Fri Dec 11, 2015, 05:05 PM (4 replies)

"Trump is getting all the press, but the Bernie Sanders movement is more important for the future"

link to insightful analysis on Vox; excerpt:

Donald Trump, as you have probably heard, is dominating national polls of Republicans who want to lead their party in the 2016 presidential election. As you have likewise probably heard, Hillary Clinton is currently crushing left-wing challenger Bernie Sanders in national polls of Democrats.

What you have probably not heard as much about is that Trump and Sanders have approximately equal levels of public support.

Here's Trump bouncing around in the mid- to low 30s:

link to graph

And here's Sanders bounding around in the mid- to low 30s:

link to graph

Trump right now is a few percentage points ahead of Sanders in terms of the number of Republicans backing him versus the number of Democrats backing Sanders. But because there are more Democrats than Republicans in America, Philip Bump of the Washington Post reckons that there are actually slightly more Sanders supporters in America than Trump supporters. Nonetheless, Trump has dominated media coverage of the 2016 campaign while Sanders has largely been a non-factor in coverage since Clinton started handing in solid debate performances.
Posted by Attorney in Texas | Fri Dec 11, 2015, 10:33 AM (7 replies)

Aren't you LOVING this trend-line of polling in New Hampshire?

Here is the polling trend-line in New Hampshire:



Here is the same polling graphed with the smoothing minimized (to show the individual ups-and-downs in the polls rather than the general trend lines):



Posted by Attorney in Texas | Fri Dec 11, 2015, 10:23 AM (65 replies)

41% v. 27% find Sanders honest/trustworthy (+13%); 31% v. 53% find Clinton honest/trustworthy (-24%)

That's among all voters in today's YouGov/Economist internet poll.

Among Independents, Sander has an even higher +15% net honest/trustworthy rating, and Clinton has a much lower -32%.

Even among Democrats, Sanders has a higher net +56% (i.e., 68% find Sanders honest/trustworthy and 12% disagree) compared to Clinton's net +25 trustworthiness rating among Democrats (54% find Clinton honest/trustworthy and 29% disagree).

CLINTON FANS - THIS IS NOT GOOD IF YOU WANT HER AS OUR PARTY'S STANDARD BEARER.
Posted by Attorney in Texas | Thu Dec 10, 2015, 06:14 PM (41 replies)

Most Americans are nervous or scared about Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton

Source: The Week

There's good news and bad news for Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in a new national New York Times/CBS News poll, partly released Thursday morning. ... most Americans said they were concerned with both frontrunners: 40 percent of respondents expressed fear and 24 concern about a President Trump, while 34 percent were scared and 23 percent concerned about a President Hillary Clinton.

Read more: http://theweek.com/speedreads/593588/most-americans-are-nervous-scared-about-donald-trump-hillary-clinton



Here is a link to the polling results data.

The "excited" vs. "concerned" vs. "scared" data concerning independent voters was the most interesting, especially as contrasted with partisan voters:

Independents on Trump:

8% .....excited
26% ...concerned
41% ...scared

Independents on Clinton:

4% .....excited
27% ...concerned
32% ...scared

Democrats on Trump:

2% .....excited
25% ...concerned
63% ...scared

Democrats on Clinton:

22% ...excited
17% ...concerned
6% .....scared

Republicans on Trump:

25% ...excited
20% ...concerned
13% ...scared

Republicans on Clinton:

2% .....excited
24% ...concerned
65% ...scared

All Voters on Trump:

11% ...excited
24% ...concerned
40% ...scared

All Voters on Clinton:

9% .....excited
23% ...concerned
34% ...scared
Posted by Attorney in Texas | Thu Dec 10, 2015, 11:43 AM (120 replies)

3 Points: Rubio is likeliest Repub nominee. Sanders beats Rubio by 4%. Rubio beats Clinton by 3%.

These three points warrant consideration:

Rubio is likeliest Republican nominee.

Sanders beats Rubio by 4% (this most recent poll result is part of a consistent trend).

Rubio beats Clinton by 3% (this most recent poll result is part of a consistent trend).
Posted by Attorney in Texas | Wed Dec 9, 2015, 12:28 PM (68 replies)

Report: Hillary Clinton intervened for a St. Petersburg firm after request to son-in-law

Source: Tampa Bay Times, Associated Press

As secretary of state, Hillary Clinton intervened in a request forwarded by her son-in-law on behalf of a deep-sea mining firm to meet with her or other State Department officials, according to the recently released Clinton emails.

One of the firm's investors had asked Clinton's son-in-law, Marc Mezvinsky, who is married to Chelsea Clinton, for help setting up such contacts, the emails show.

The lobbying effort on behalf of Neptune Minerals Inc. came while Hillary Clinton - now the leading Democratic presidential candidate - was advocating for an Obama administration push for Senate approval of a sweeping Law of the Sea Treaty. The pact would have aided U.S. mining companies scouring for minerals in international waters, but the Republican-dominated Senate blocked it.

Clinton ordered a senior State Department official in August 2012 to look into the request. Her action came three months after an investor in the mining firm emailed Mezvinsky, a partner in Eaglevale Partners LP, a New York hedge fund, asking for his help in setting up State Department contacts.

Read more: http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/report-hillary-clinton-intervened-for-a-st-petersburg-firm-after-request/2257056
Posted by Attorney in Texas | Wed Dec 9, 2015, 12:02 PM (54 replies)

Bernie Sanders to Donald Trump: 'That kind of crap won't work in the U.S.'

Source: CNN

(CNN)Bernie Sanders condemned Donald Trump's call for a ban on Muslims entering the United States, calling the Republican front-runner a "demagogue" and saying "that kind of crap won't work in the United States of America."

Appearing on NBC's "The Tonight Show" on Tuesday, the Vermont independent who's seeking the Democratic presidential nomination accused Trump of trying to "divert attention away from the real issues."

"What somebody like a Trump is trying to do is to divide us up -- a few months ago, we're supposed to hate Mexicans," Sanders said. "Now we're supposed to hate Muslims. That kind of crap is not going to work in the United States of America."

Asked by host Jimmy Fallon whether he was more focused on Trump or primary opponent Hillary Clinton, Sanders replied, "I look forward to beating Donald Trump -- I would enjoy that race very, very much."


Read more: http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/09/politics/bernie-sanders-tonight-show-donald-trump/index.html



Posted by Attorney in Texas | Wed Dec 9, 2015, 11:48 AM (12 replies)
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