October 26, 2015

Are you a Democratic Socialist?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonkblog/wp/2015/10/23/are-you-a-democratic-socialist-take-the-quiz/

October 26, 2015

One of the earlier objections and most frequent

has been that Bernie could not win in the general election, so I need to back HRC. Well....

That is simply not true, and I am putting this here to use as a reference any time you hear that from someone.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/favorability-ratings-show-hillary-clinton-is-unelectable_b_8388316.html

If HRC is the nominee, there will be a Republican President.
but
When Bernie is the nominee, there will be a Democratic Socialist President...oh and bonus DWS will be out.

October 25, 2015

Look for a very large number of candidates to begin

dropping out of the race for President. (I include R's in this metric).

I think you will begin to see some big names, including Bush. Personally, I think that was what the Trump campaign was about, to push Bush out of the race. Once that happens, as Trumps poll numbers decline, I am nearly positive you will see him go.

Oh and it will be speaking ill of corn that killed his race. Sad.

Iowa, NH and Cash on Hand are critical. With HRC not capturing a lot of small donors (she has them and will spike surely), the longer Sanders stays in, the more difficult it is going to get for her, she was counting on no significant competition. Look for her at some point AFTER the IA and NH primaries to economize which could get the attention of the press.

Nobody here should be worried too much about the HRC posters going a bit nuts on the board. I have read some incredibly bad posts lately, all trying to tamper enthusiasm for Bernie....well, it ain't gonna happen. As Bernie goes after HRC on the issues which is fair game AND he takes NH and possibly IA, he will get a MAJOR boost in the polls. He will have money, and a broad base of activist support.

HRC may win in SC, but if it is close, that will be big news and GREAT News for Bernie, so keep fighting there!

This will be a long haul, something HRC didn't expect. The campaign is doing great.

This election, it's not just change we can believe in, it's real fuckin change. (including at the DNC, that is coming too).

We are fighting for the very soul of the Democratic Party here.

<insert motivating favorite rally/fight song here, yes go ahead play it in your head and let's go!>

October 22, 2015

Wink wink

October 18, 2015

Bernie Sanders on CNBC

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/05/26/10-questions-with-bernie-sanders.html

This interview is truly interesting. Bernie is not afraid to go to places like Liberty U and by going to CNBC and being interviewed, he goes directly to the Wealthy Class and Wall Street.

Good read.

Added: This is an interview from last May, but still illuminating.

October 17, 2015

This will not make many of you happy.

It is becoming increasingly likely that HRC may have won the debate. I know you won't like this, and I expect many of you will flame my ass. I am tossing this out at all of you like a frickin bomb because it means something.

First, here is an indicator, and instead of attacking polls, we can see that HRC has made gains in NH in a new CNN poll. (You can cry rigged now if you want, but bear with me). We will see more polling coming out over this weekend and into early next week and I think they will show more HRC gains and here is why.

Secondly, the media has been declaring it so. Repeatedly. They have become a spin cycle for the HRC campaign.

Third, the HRC campaign itself has been doing a GREAT job spinning and playing up how well HRC did in the debate, and make no mistake, she did well.

Fourth, candidates like Webb and Chaffee who pointedly stuck out to the right. Webb just because of the military aspect and demeanor, Chaffee for saying the Republican Party left him and now here is is, says "Hi I'm a moderate" This put HRC into a bit more of a 'lean left' juxtaposition at the debate.

Hating this so far?

Okay, so....

Here is the GOOD News. Nobody votes tomorrow. This is a long haul. The campaign is being extremely well run. I mean seriously well run...so good so far...simply amazing.

So again. What has happened POST DEBATE for Bernie?

An enormous influx of cash in just a few days. News reports about the small donor base for Bernie vs. the large contributions to HRC. Also, news about Cash on Hand and the expense rates of Bernie vs HRC...Bernie's campaign costs are much, much lower than hers. Bernie raising more cash than ANY Republican candidate is news.

Continued campaign cash economy by doing shows (that are not costly to the candidate!) like Ellen and Real Time, as well as other interviews that reach mass audiences, even larger than the crowds that have shown up city after city. This by the way, would never have happened without supporters and social media AND Bernie's message that has generated a lot of excitement.

I also believe that the Sanders campaign move to smaller discussion groups, bbq's and house parties is a good idea that will give the campaign really good perspective on how WE are moving his message forward. I think it will also provide the campaign with solid feedback about the message and how it is resonating by community. That just can't take too long because I still believe he needs to generate some more big crowds, just not as often as those events are very costly.

Social Media and an Activist Explosion.

Even more people coming out and endorsing Sanders. Hollywood = money, we are seeing more and more of these wealthy folks become believers and truly great advocates.

A HUGE energized base of support by Party activists that will get out and WORK for the candidate as much as they can. More and more influencers persuading family and friends and tamping down this whole Socialism vs. Democratic Socialism thing.

AND Bernie Sanders himself. 15.7 million people now know what an honorable man he is and not just by his email response, but by his record. People know he is NOT BOUGHT and PAID FOR. And as we move forward even more people will find out just what kind of a once in a lifetime candidate Bernie is for President.

HRC gains, yes, but only modest ones. A 5% swing in NH, not a 30% swing and only perhaps a small drop in Sander's support.

Finally, and this one may seem weird, but Hillary Clinton herself. Bernie Sanders has and will never consider her an enemy and she certainly knows and respects how he is campaigning now and may even take a lead from it and do two things; refrain from attacks against Bernie on anything but policy and recognize the energy he is bringing to the Party and think that she can use Bernie's small donor base down the road (don't take this the wrong way here, her campaign sees us donating to Bernie, she doesn't have us, she covets us. Do not think for one second she doesn't. In the end, if she ever goes negative on Bernie, know it will be a very desperate move because she will lose us, she can't afford that..but eh it won't matter because Sander's is going to win the most delegates in the end)

Sidebar benefit: DWS's curtain is being pulled back (Wizard of Oz reference, look it up you young whippersnappers)

and now for the bottom line....

Even if HRC "won" that debate, Sander's did not LOSE it for all of the reasons I stated above and I am sure more. If there were losers in that debate, it was certainly Webb and Chaffee, who I doubt will remain in much longer. O'Malley has some post debate issues as news reports are showing he took money from the NRA which really contradicts his most spoken about messages during the debate so his performance may turn on him.

I wouldn't be surprised if a few HRC supporters find this post and say, "See? see??? the truth is setting in with at least one of them over there..." BUT make no mistake....sometimes, it doesn't matter whether you win or lose, it's how you play the game and this is a LONG season! It only matters that you take the series.

October 15, 2015

Democratic Socialism Explained

http://www.vox.com/2015/10/14/9530787/socialism-history-explained

This is such a GREAT article and one that I will use to explain to my friends who don't understand. Definitely worth a thorough read by everyone in this group to better explain Sander's position and exactly WHY he identifies as a Democratic Socialist.

October 14, 2015

What really defines who won or lost the debate

First of all, we never really know who won or lost for a few days. (minimum of 3)

Even though there may be indicators, like google searches, added twitter followers, a huge uptick in campaign donations and talking heads all claiming this or that, half of who usually look pretty dumb a few days later...

The truth is in the polls.

There are also different definitions of victory. Here is my take on Victory for each candidate.

Clinton.

Did her debate performance convince Biden to stay out or jump in? If Biden jumps in, she faces a big bleed of support.
Was she able to appeal to the progressive base and frame her message to stop the drift of the party to Sanders? The test on this is whether or not her poll numbers stay steady, right where they are. We should see some polling by Friday, maybe.

Money and Activism: Did the debate garner more of both?

Sanders.

Did his debate performance serve as an introduction of the candidate to those who don't really know him? That is a yes, just by his being there.
Did he do a good job with the whole 'socialist' thing? Be honest here, it is too early to tell. If sanders sees a post debate momentum swing upward in the polls, this answer is really, "He made progress on that one"

Money and Activism: Did the debate garner more of both?

O'Malley.

Did his debate performance serve as an introduction of the candidate to those who don't really know him? That is a yes, just by his being there. He had the best closing statement of all of the candidates, it was pretty inspiring.

Will his poll numbers rise as well?

Money and Activism: Did the debate garner more of both?

Webb and Chaffee

Money and Activism: Did the debate garner more of both? I only put this here, because if he doesn't get more of both immediately, they will drop out soon.

If Hillary's poll numbers start declining any further, she did not win this debate, period.

If Sanders continues to surge in the polls and raises a great deal of money, as well as fire up or sway more voters, he won, period.

Bottom line is this....we don't know yet. We really don't.

Yeah and I hate the wait.

October 14, 2015

The Candidate Breaking Through in the Debate

Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/10/13/the-candidate-breaking-through-in-the-democratic-debate-bernie-sanders/

For the non-Hillary Rodham Clinton, non-Bernie Sanders Democrats participating in the first debate on Tuesday night, there was one goal: Get noticed. A look at the candidates being searched on Google during the debate shows that one candidate managed to do that.

Bernie Sanders.

October 14, 2015

Weighing in on the debate...

just cuz I want to

Okay, at first I thought that every single question was designed as a gotchya at Bernie, but the more I watched cooper challenged all of them, so I was kind of okay with the questions.

I thought Bernie did really well overall and got his message across and will lose no steam. I liked that the debate stayed mainly to the issues.

Ok so...

Chaffee....he has to be done, just the I was brand new to the Senate so I voted that way...um....Cooper was right to do a "say what???

Webb....maybe in the 90s...third way, all the way...no thank you.

O'Malley...honestly, best closing statement of the night, it really rocked, but the Baltimore thing really hurt him.

Clinton...I felt like on too many questions she continued to thread the needle..."So are you a moderate or are you a progressive?" "I'm both...." There was some real damage there. Even afterwards, Begala was a complete spin fail, virtually thanking Bernie for calling bullshit on the email stuff.

Sanders....ok, going to be honest, there were a few times he frightened me, he took some NRA hits even though I completely understood his rural vs urban viewpoint which made sense at the time. He nailed it completely on Black Lives Matter. He could have gone a bit further on Immigration and mentioned more about how immigrants are a benefit, not a liability to the country (like he did in Tucson). His move to Cuomo for a post interview was BRILLIANT and he basically got 5 extra minutes of Free debate time to clarify and further his message. I also think that American democratic voters have to be thinking..Damn I need to take a closer look at this guy.

The vote on the Patriot Act was marvelous....it was 99 to 1....Bernie: "I was the one" That is visionary and it is also someone not afraid to stand up for Constitutional principles in the US.

Bernie won. You know why?

Because, I am sending him another $100 tonight. I KNOW I am not alone. I am so going to love watching his poll numbers jump.