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Jarqui

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Member since: Sun Aug 23, 2015, 03:58 PM
Number of posts: 6,827

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A picture says a 1000 words ..



credit to this thread:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511002697

Well her supporters obviously do because she's lied so frequently

it's the only way left for them to handle it.

60% of Americans do not trust Hillary Clinton. Those are repeated poll results. I'm not making that up.

The Republicans are already hammering away at "untrustworthy" with Hillary. They hammered away at Obama being a Muslim Kenyan and got 20% of the electorate to believe that. 60% are believing the untrustworthy label because Hillary has been caught lying a lot - there's some truth to the allegation so it sticks more.

I can't recall a presidential candidate in my lifetime getting elected president while 60% of the country finds them untrustworthy. It's a really bad polling number.

It's helping Bernie right now who is a significant contrast to that behavior.

It's a key reason why she is a turnoff as a candidate for me because I can't believe in what she's telling me - she's burned me too many times.

It's a problem Hillary cannot shake and here she is, sending her daughter out to carry on the family tradition of lying to the American people. Not a good moment for Hillary. That's self destruction/implosion.

When folks catch on to crap like that, it often backfires

Unfortunately, folks looking for the quick answer don't fully inform themselves

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-we-are-forecasting-the-2016-presidential-primary-election/
"Therefore, we think the models (polls-only model & polls-plus model) are more useful when looked at together."


That one sentence doesn't replace what Nate says at that link about what is behind his analysis. It underscores that before drawing too much conclusion incorrectly like the simplistic top post in this thread, one needs to look a little deeper at what Nate is trying to tell people with this information. Nate should stick to doing what he's doing. People should not stick to interpreting Nate incorrectly.

Normally, I'd lean more towards Nate's polls plus model in the general election. In the primary, I'd currently lean more towards the polls only model because things like endorsements and national polling are in Clinton's favor because Sanders is coming on - folks do not know him and what he stands for well nationally yet. If Sanders wins Iowa and NH, that's going to change - something like it did for Obama. In fact, Sanders good results recently are starting to change the mainstream's view and coverage of his candidacy. I think that will continue to drive Nate's results further towards Sanders over the next couple of weeks.

ARG had him +3 earlier this week

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/dem/iadem.html

Iowa is a dead heat though Bernie probably currently has the momentum ...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html

That's about where Obama was



He had a little flutter up to 20 but was 13 or so before the Iowa caucus.

Iowa gave him a good jolt and then super Tuesday cemented him.

I won't guarantee history will repeat itself here but it's looking pretty good for Bernie right now to make a real race of this thing.

CNN: Is Hillary Clinton's campaign in trouble?

Source: CNN.com

Recent polls show Bernie Sanders leading Hillary Clinton in both New Hampshire and in Iowa. CNN's Brianna Keilar reports.



Read more: http://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2016/01/12/could-hillary-lose-to-sanders-keilar-dnt-lead.cnn



As for other mainstream headlines

ABC: New Polls Concern Clinton Campaign
http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/video/polls-concern-clinton-campaign-36202212

MSNBC Despite polling, uncertainty is the only thing certain in Democratic race
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/polls-take-democratic-primary-and-wild-ride
"few expected a septuagenarian democratic socialist would force Clinton to send such dire warnings to her supporters."

NBC News : Poll: Neck-And-Neck 2016 Races in Iowa, New Hampshire
Sanders outperforms Clinton in general-election matchups
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/poll-neck-neck-2016-races-iowa-new-hampshire-n493361
The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls also show that Sanders outperforms Clinton in hypothetical general-election matchups in these two presidential battleground states - something other surveys have found, too.

CBS: NH Poll: Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton in every major voting bloc
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/nh-poll-bernie-sanders-leads-every-major-voting-bloc/

CBS: Trump: Clinton having "tough time" against Sanders in 2016 race
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-clinton-having-tough-time-against-sanders-in-2016-race/


Beyond the tightening polls. This is not good for the Clinton campaign when they start to see headlines like that on the mainstream news sites and their videos .

Hat tip to Bernie's campaign who have done precisely what they had to to this point - get within striking distance on New Hampshire (which they've exceeded) and Iowa (which is now a true toss up with momentum in Sanders corner).

There's little doubt that this race has changed and Bernie's very, very much in it now.

I don't like the word hate but I HATE FOX "News"

because they spew BS and hate 24/7.

But if it were the Bush Foundation and their donors, like Halliburton, were getting arms deals, etc we'd be all over that (and we were with Halliburton during the Bush/Cheney years).

I've looked at that Foundation donor stuff some - did some of my own research and I'd quickly concur that I saw no "proof" but to be honest and forthright, it smelled pretty bad. So if she takes some hits on that, some of it is their responsibility because the Clintons were in a position to know what the perceptions were going to be and went ahead with it.

It happens to all candidates

The different is how much it happens and how much traction it will get. The volume of Clinton's scandals, flip-flops and lies is likely to get more traction than most in my opinion.

Trying to brand Bernie as a commie is coming. And they'll probably ding him a few points in the polls for it. But what I'm seeing is as more people get familiar with him, they like him and he's still rising.

Everyone knows who Hillary is, a good percentage do not like or trust her so she's close to her ceiling. YHou're not likely to see a big rise or lots of enthusiasm.

Iowa is a true toss up in Real Clear poll of polls - Clinton +0.2

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html

and he's starting to get some daylight in New Hampshire +6.2
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html

I'm not surprised by NH but Clinton was +17.7 less than four weeks ago in Iowa. Closing that gap so quickly is undeniable and pretty major.

Classy top post
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