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Jarqui

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Member since: Sun Aug 23, 2015, 02:58 PM
Number of posts: 7,651

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I think it's a trivial complaint

a) because it hasn't been proven to not be Sanders yet
b) because others identified Sanders as being in the photo (I saw someone quote the caption in an article - don't know where)
c) he ran for high school president - campaigning to raise education money for Korean war orphans. In other words, he was an activist long before that picture was taken doing the very things like what we see going on in that picture. So even if someone messed up and identified Sanders wrongly, it doesn't materially change Sanders story.


I think Axelrod is right:

“He has no chance if he doesn’t win Iowa,” said David Axelrod, the chief strategist in both of President Obama’s campaigns. “Even if he were to win New Hampshire, it could be written off as a home-state victory because he’s from across the border.”


If he wins Iowa, he's likely to win New Hampshire. That means for the first 20 days of the primary after the voting starts, all the media would be talking about is whether Bernie is going to do what Barack did to Hillary => which legitimizes his candidacy with free media coverage (kind of like what happened with Obama). Bernie has a good message and would gain some momentum with media exposure that legitimizes him.

Look at the polls in 2008:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html#charts
Clinton has a 21 point lead Jan 3rd - date of the Iowa caucus .... which Obama wins and BOOM ... he closes the gap and away his campaign goes ...

If Bernie wins Iowa, people (most people are just tuning in) and media will sit up, take notice and listen to what he's selling - which gives Bernie a shot.

But if Bernie loses Iowa, even if he wins New Hampshire, it's tough because he's behind in Nevada and South Carolina. Good chance Hillary wins 3 of the first four setting her up well with momentum as the likely winner for the super Tuesday vote in March. Game over. Stick a fork in him.

Poor guy was under house arrest

at his 8,300 square foot home ...

.... until he petitioned the court successfully to let him spend a month at a resort he owned that needed his personal attention in person.

.... Then he successfully got the court to reduce his probation down to two years.
http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/search/pagedetails.action;jsessionid=v6l0WGQcRLctYqGNfXyTRGggJkmHrNm2v8nBp19qmQxHJGWl6TBw!-116820484!1252773383?st=07-344+-+USA+V.+COSTA&granuleId=USCOURTS-pawd-2_07-cr-00344-1&packageId=USCOURTS-pawd-2_07-cr-00344

Further to the above

go to this link and put in an Iowa or New Hampshire postal code
https://go.berniesanders.com/page/event/search_simple
and notice 3 digits worth of Sanders events going on.

Go to SC or NV postal codes and the number of events is dramatically less.

Some of that may be that Bernie is in NH right now and they don't look very far into the future but I suspect some of it is that their focus is on Iowa and New Hampshire.

Hillary won the state in 2008 BUT .... (as you say ..)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nv/nevada_democratic_caucus-236.html

she lost the Nevada delegates contest 11-14 to Obama:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

Hillary's biggest lead on Obama in South Carolina was around +18
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_primary-234.html
She lost the state to Obama -28.9.

This time, Hillary is +46.9 over Sanders in SC - WAY ahead of where she was in 2008
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html
That lead is so massive, it's hard to imagine Bernie catching up. 30% of the population is black and Bernie isn't doing nearly as well with Blacks as Obama did.

So if Harry can tilt NV Hillary's way along with her winning the state vote again like she did last time against Obama (she's +26.5 right now) and SC goes the way it's looking to go, Bernie pretty much has to get Iowa and hang on to New Hampshire. Since September, Sanders pretty much lost his 12 point lead in New Hampshire and has fallen from a tie to down 24 points in Iowa. So the recent trends probably have to turn around in those states or he's toast. If you want Bernie to win, that's where he could really use some help.

I want Bernie to win but

"the fact that Bernie has gained just as much support as Hillary these past few weeks, and is in fact now at record high numbers nationally"


I'm not so sure that's an accurate claim.

At the end of September, Clinton was +13.2 over Bernie. Now, Clinton is +21.6 over Bernie. So Bernie hasn't gained as much support as Hillary over the past few weeks. Bernie is at an all time high in part because Biden dropped out to provide a boost. But Hillary got more of Biden's supporters than Bernie did (which roughly explains Clinton's surge/gain).
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

The start of the 2016 primaries is roughly a month later than 2008. So it could be argued that Clinton's lead of +25.6 on Oct 12, 2008 over Obama or her lead of +23.0 on Nov 12, 2008 has Bernie closer to Clinton than Obama was at the same time during their contest - if your looking for something factually positive to grab on to.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html#charts

I think what we have to watch closely is the early Feb 2016 primary states: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada & South Carolina. Bernie's doing well in NH already. Iowa and Nevada are caucuses of some kind so he could surprise like Obama did there (though you can be sure Clinton will be much more vigilant and determined at the caucus level this time around). In order to close on Clinton and legitimately contend, he's going to need some good early showings to prove he might be able to beat her. Like Obama, that will get him media coverage and momentum if he can pull that off and then we'll have a real contest. Hopefully, something like that happens to close the gap.

As one of the articles pointed out with this, he most certainly does

http://www.politifact.com/personalities/ben-carson/

I think that's why all these anecdotes are getting scrutinized. Since he has no political background, his life story is pretty much all they have to look at.

I still haven't got over that one

and I think her less publicized claim about helping Ireland get peace (that was such a stretch it was a lie).

Those lies removed whatever very few doubts I had about supporting Obama. And to this day, she will never be a candidate that I can be as enthusiastic about because of those lies.

There seems to have been so much lying in politics, we've collectively become somewhat numb to it. But I haven't. It still bothers me.

And that's a key reason why I like Bernie so much. He's very straightforward and forthright. And he's been rock solid in his beliefs for years - not compromising his beliefs and pandering (a less obvious form of dishonesty).

Scarborough to Carson "You're lying ... admit it"

JOE SCARBOROUGH TO BEN CARSON: ‘YOU’RE LYING,’ ‘COME OUT FRONT AND YOU NEED TO ADMIT IT’
http://www.breitbart.com/video/2015/11/09/joe-scarborough-to-ben-carson-youre-lying-come-out-front-and-you-need-to-admit-it/

A little hypocrisy using this as I'm not a big fan of Scarborough.

This guy has issues

The thing is, a bunch of them lied at the last debate and the media didn't make that much of a collective fuss.
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