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TheDormouse

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Member since: Wed Feb 24, 2016, 04:38 PM
Number of posts: 1,168

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Hillary leads Bernie by only 235 - There are 1,400 still up for grabs

Hillary has garnered approximately 235 more pledged delegate votes from primaries and caucuses than Bernie has (1,443 to 1,208).

But a third of the total pledged delegates haven't been taken yet. There are still another 1,400 pledged delegates available from the states and territories that haven't yet voted.

Anyone saying that it's impossible for Bernie to win the nomination isn't being honest.

Kasich crushes Clinton in polls; Sanders beats Kasich

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_kasich_vs_clinton-5162.html#polls

In 15 national polls since the beginning of the year, Kasich has consistently beat Clinton.

But in polls between Kasich and Sanders, Sanders beats, or runs neck and neck with, Kasich.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_kasich_vs_sanders-5817.html#polls

Hillary can't win the nomination before the convention

Two things to be mindful of:

First, History

Let's go to the videotape
February 2008
Superdelegates switching allegiance to Obama

Hillary Clinton is starting to lose her overwhelming lead in superdelegates, the Democratic party officials whose votes she is counting on to help her close the gap with Barack Obama.... After once leading Obama by a 2 to 1 ratio in the superdelegate chase, Clinton now has 241 to his 181, according to the latest Associated Press tally.

Most unnerving for Clinton is the trickle of superdelegates who have defected from her corner to Obama's.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/feb/23/uselections2008.barackobama

May 2008
Barack Obama erased Hillary Rodham Clinton's once-imposing lead among superdelegates Saturday when he added more endorsements from the group of Democrats who will decide the party's nomination for president.
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/24556427/ns/politics-decision_08/t/obama-takes-lead-superdelegates-ap-reports/

Second, Math

Hillary is unlikely to win enough pledged delegates in the remaining primaries to be able to clinch the nomination before the superdelegates can vote at the convention.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/sanders-is-right-on-super_b_9695718.html

Hillary has already won 1,443 pledged delegates in primaries and caucuses.
(This is 538's count as of last night. Other sources report slightly different numbers; Bloomberg says 1,428; NY Times/AP says 1,446. We'll keep it simple and use 1,443.)
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html

Based on polls summarized at RealClearPolitics, we are looking at the following in upcoming primaries (I've tried to generally lean toward using the figures that give Hillary a higher percentage of votes; so for Pennsylvania, for example, I used 55%):
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

Legend:
state---total pledged delegates available---Hillary's predicted take (based on polling)---Hillary's likely delegates yield

CT 55--0.51--28
MD 95--0.58--55
PA 189--0.55--104
IN 83--0.48--40
CA 475--0.48--228
NJ 126--0.53--67

(In other words, for Connecticut, for example, there are 55 total pledged delegates available. Polling predicts Hillary will win about 51% of the votes, meaning about 51% of the pledged delegates will be awarded to her. 51% of 55 means she should get about 28 pledged delegates from Connecticut, based on recent polls.)

total pledged delegates Hillary is likely to win from these 6 states, based on recent polling:
28 + 55 + 104 + 40 + 228 + 67 = 522

That will give Hillary 1,443 + 522 = 1,965 pledged delegates.

There are an additional 13 states & territories that will also contribute pledged delegates, but I haven't seen polling for them, so I can't say what fraction Hillary is currently expected to win. These states/territories are:

DE 21
RI 24
Guam 7
WV 29
KY 55
OR 61
Virgin Is 7
PR 60
MT 21
NM 34
ND 18
SD 20
DC 20

The total yield from all of these latter states/territories is 377. In other words, if Hillary were to win 100% of all the pledged delegates from these states/territories where we don't have good polling, she would take an additional 377 delegates. (Obviously, she won't win ALL of their delegates in reality.)

The magic number to clinch the nomination is 2,383.

Since Hillary's pledged delegates haul is likely to be 1,965 after the 6 upcoming states for which we do have polls, she will need 2,383 - 1,965 = 418 additional pledged delegates from the states/territories for which we don't have good recent polls.

However, as noted above, even if she won ALL of the pledged delegates from those 13 states/territories, she would only get an additional 377 delegates. So she would still fall short by 418 - 377 = 41 pledged delegates.

Of course, anything could happen in the next few weeks. The polls could dramatically change based on a terrorist attack or huge gaffe or something--or the polls could just be wrong.

But if the polls are reasonably accurate and do not significantly change, and if my math is right, Hillary can't win this race by pledged delegates alone. She will have to make her case to superdelegates to stick with her--and they can't vote until the convention.

So any claims that the race is over and Bernie should drop out now are just Hillary camp propaganda. The nominee will be decided in Philadelphia at the end of July at the convention.

Someone check my math, please

Seth Abramson has pointed out something the mainstream media don't mention:

Hillary is unlikely to win enough pledged delegates in the remaining primaries to be able to clinch the nomination before the superdelegates can vote at the convention.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/sanders-is-right-on-super_b_9695718.html

As far as I am aware, Abramson's last post running the numbers was made before the NY primary.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/a-contested-democratic-convention_b_9672328.html

So can someone check my back-of-the-hand calculations?
It looks to me that Hillary remains unlikely to win enough pledged delegates outright to secure the nomination without having to rely on superdelegate votes--which will not be cast until the convention.


Hillary has already won 1,443 pledged delegates in primaries and caucuses. (This is 538's count. Other sources report slightly different numbers; Bloomberg says 1,428; NY Times/AP says 1,446. We'll kep it simple and use 1,443.)
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html

Based on polls summarized at RealClearPolitics, we are looking at the following in upcoming primaries (I've tried to generally lean toward using the figures that give Hillary a higher percentage of votes; so for Pennsylvania, for example, I used 55%):
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

Legend:
state---total pledged delegates available---Hillary's predicted take (based on polling)---Hillary's likely delegates yield

CT 55--0.51--28
MD 95--0.58--55
PA 189--0.55--104
IN 83--0.48--40
CA 475--0.48--228
NJ 126--0.53--67

(In other words, for Connecticut, for example, there are 55 total pledged delegates available. Polling predicts Hillary will win about 51% of the votes, meaning about 51% of the pledged delegates will be awarded to her. 51% of 55 means she should get about 28 pledged delegates from Connecticut, based on recent polls.)

total pledged delegates Hillary is likely to win from these 6 states, based on recent polling:
28 + 55 + 104 + 40 + 228 + 67 = 522

That will give Hillary 1,443 + 522 = 1,965 pledged delegates.

There are an additional 13 states & territories that will also contribute pledged delegates, but I haven't seen polling for them, so I can't say what fraction Hillary is currently expected to win. These states/territories are:

DE 21
RI 24
Guam 7
WV 29
KY 55
OR 61
Virgin Is 7
PR 60
MT 21
NM 34
ND 18
SD 20
DC 20

The total yield from all of these latter states/territories is 377. In other words, if Hillary won 100% of all the pledged delegates from these states/territories where we don't have good polling, she would take an additional 377. (Obviously, she won't will ALL of their delegates in reality.)

The magic number to clinch the nomination is 2,383.

Since Hillary's pledged delegates haul is likely to be 1,965 after winning the 6 upcoming states for which we do have polls, she will need 2,383 - 1,965 = 418 additional pledged delegates from the states/territories for which we don't have good recent polls.

However, as noted above, even if she won ALL of the pledged delegates from those 13 states/territories, she would still fall short by 418 - 377 = 41 pledged delegates.

Of course, anything could happen in the next few weeks. The polls could dramatically change based on a terrorist attack or huge gaffe or something--or the polls could just be wrong. But if the polls are reasonably accurate and nothing changes, if my math is correct, Abramson is still right.




Many Dem primary voters made up their minds over a month ago

if exit polls are to believed, and if New Yorkers are similar to voters in other states in this regard.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/04/19/us/elections/new-york-primary-democratic-exit-polls.html

So any campaigning going forward is basically to motivate people who have already decided on a particular candidate to actually get out and cast a vote. (Or to try to convince the opposing candidates' supporters that it's not worth bothering to cast a vote.)

There are very few left to be persuaded to make a choice they haven't already made.

When Hillary told Russ Feingold his campaign finance reform legislation was a fantasy

Clinton, Feingold have shouting match over campaign finance reform

By FREDERIC J. FROMMER / Associated Press Writer Jul 19, 2002

WASHINGTON -- Sens. Russ Feingold and Hillary Clinton got into in a heated argument over the impact of Feingold's campaign finance reform legislation on Senate Democrats, Feingold said Friday.

"'You're not living in the real world,"' Clinton screamed at him, according to Feingold, D-Wis., the party's leading backer of the McCain-Feingold law....

At issue was the law's ban on soft money -- large, unregulated donations to parties from corporations, unions and wealthy people. Feingold said Clinton was worried the ban would open Democrats to legal liability because of what she considered the vagueness of the law.

Feingold said a "core group" of five or six Democrats -- including Clinton, D-N.Y. -- was trying to find ways to get around the ban.

"It was a troubling display for a party that claims to be for trying to clean up the system," Feingold said.

...

Feingold said Clinton apologized to him on the Senate floor later in the day....

But he said he will fight anyone who tries to keep the current system -- "even those who vote for it and then try to undercut it."


http://chippewa.com/clinton-feingold-have-shouting-match-over-campaign-finance-reform/article_94f8c743-93e1-5e6a-ac64-ce7206ae7b8b.html

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511613732

The most pro-Hillary Bernie Sanders endorsement video you'll ever see

New Yorkers: What were Hillary's main accomplishments in the Senate?

Hillary represented New York in the Senate for almost 8 years.
What did she accomplish while there?

What percentage of Hillary supporters were for Hillary in 2008?

I bet a lot of Democratic voters who are backing Hillary really wanted her to win back in 2008, rather than Obama, and never got that yearning fulfilled. Almost half the party was for Hillary in that election. For the average person, once you've set your mind on something it can be very difficult to see any other perspective. So support for Hillary in 2016 would just be getting satisfaction that was denied the last time around.

Another large chunk, overlapping with the above, is older Dems who, like almost all members of their generation, were brainwashed into fearing "socialism" in past decades. They still can't get past that label now.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/183713/socialist-presidential-candidates-least-appealing.aspx

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/rampage/wp/2016/02/05/millennials-have-a-higher-opinion-of-socialism-than-of-capitalism/

Hillary's just fine with your past NRA support so long as you support her

Bernie Sanders has a "D-" rating from the NRA, but that doesn't matter because he stands between Shameless Hillary and the Democratic nomination for president.

Sen. Harry Reid, Nevada
has had an NRA "B" rating and received lots of NRA money in the past
http://lasvegassun.com/news/2012/dec/28/harry-reid-may-have-change-his-tone-gun-control/



Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, New York
had an NRA "A" rating as US House rep, before taking Hillary's old Senate seat
http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2016/04/hillary-better-than-trump-better-than.html



Gov. Peter Shumlin, Vermont
has had an "A+" rating from the NRA
http://www.ontheissues.org/Peter_Shumlin.htm
http://www.sevendaysvt.com/OffMessage/archives/2013/01/04/at-shumlins-request-nra-releases-govs-endorsement-questionnaire



Alison Lundergan Grimes, Kentucky
Remember her? She ran against Mitch McConnell for Senate in 2014. She's good friends with Hillary & Bill, who strongly supported her in the Democratic primary and in the general election.


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