TheDormouse
TheDormouse's Journal
33% of Bernie supporters won't vote for Hillary
according to a nearly two-month-old NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/video/poll-33-sanders-supporters-wouldnt-120220441.html
Do we have any actual hard numbers that are more recent?
(I've seen a number of articles, from random blogs to articles published in more highly-respected sources, that quote surveys of Democrats specifically. But are there are any recent surveys that have asked respondents of all stripes who are Bernie supporters what their plans are?)
Democrats should nominate the candidate who stands the best chances of prevailing in November. He or she will need independents, as well as self-identified Democrats, to do that.
Most Hillary voters back her as a vote against the alternative rather than as a vote for her
NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey April 10-14
(Prior question: "Thinking again about the 2016 presidential election... if the election for president were held today, and Donald Trump were the Republican candidate and Hillary Clinton were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote?"
Next question: "Are you voting for that person more because you want that person to be president...or...more because you do NOT want the other person to be president?"
50% of registered voters who back Hillary say it's more because they don't want Trump
33% of registered voters who back Hillary say it's more because they want Hillary
Asked earlier in the same survey--
Among registered voters overall
58% could NOT see themselves supporting Hillary Clinton
48% could NOT see themselves supporting Bernie Sanders
41% could see themselves supporting Hillary Clinton
49% could see themselves supporting Bernie Sanders
31% could see themselves supporting Donald Trump
68% could NOT see themselves supporting Donald Trump
Among registered voters who had or were planning to vote in the Dem primary:
78% could see themselves supporting Hillary (21% could not)
78% could see themselves supporting Bernie (21% could not)
http://www.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/16229NBCWSJApril2016Poll.pdf
Take Home Message:
Bernie is the more electable candidate among registered voters of all political persuasians.
Kathleen Matthews (Mrs. Hardball) LOSES! Jamie Raskin wins!
Democratic Primary for Maryland's 8th Congressional District
CANDIDATES VOTE PCT.
Jamie Raskin 38,902 33.7%
David Trone 31,529 27.3%
Kathleen Matthews 27,401 23.8%
115,354 votes, 100% of precincts reporting
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/maryland
Buh-Bye ........
The Empire does NOT always win!!
Matthews and Trone were Establishment favorites in what turned out to be the most expensive congressional primary election in US history--over $15 million spent.
Jamie Raskin, a state senator and constitutional law professor, was preferred by the voters, despite being vastly outspent by his opponents.
NYT: Hillary Clinton at times seems tone-deaf to public anger
YES !!!! Bernie 44%, Hillary 50% -- & Bernie has the momentum!
Hillary's support level has plateaued--she's got all the supporters she is going to get. But Bernie's still getting new supporters, as more potential voters hear his message.
Bernie is within striking distance of Hillary in national polls.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary
YOUR vote counts! There are still 1,400 pledged delegates up for grabs!
Don't let anyone make you think it won't matter whether you vote or not.
This race is still alive!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html
Hillary leads Bernie by only 235 - There are 1,400 still up for grabs
Hillary has garnered approximately 235 more pledged delegate votes from primaries and caucuses than Bernie has (1,443 to 1,208).
But a third of the total pledged delegates haven't been taken yet. There are still another 1,400 pledged delegates available from the states and territories that haven't yet voted.
Anyone saying that it's impossible for Bernie to win the nomination isn't being honest.
Kasich crushes Clinton in polls; Sanders beats Kasich
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_kasich_vs_clinton-5162.html#pollsIn 15 national polls since the beginning of the year, Kasich has consistently beat Clinton.
But in polls between Kasich and Sanders, Sanders beats, or runs neck and neck with, Kasich.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_kasich_vs_sanders-5817.html#polls
Hillary can't win the nomination before the convention
Two things to be mindful of:
First, History
Let's go to the videotape
Superdelegates switching allegiance to Obama
Hillary Clinton is starting to lose her overwhelming lead in superdelegates, the Democratic party officials whose votes she is counting on to help her close the gap with Barack Obama.... After once leading Obama by a 2 to 1 ratio in the superdelegate chase, Clinton now has 241 to his 181, according to the latest Associated Press tally.
Most unnerving for Clinton is the trickle of superdelegates who have defected from her corner to Obama's.
Barack Obama erased Hillary Rodham Clinton's once-imposing lead among superdelegates Saturday when he added more endorsements from the group of Democrats who will decide the party's nomination for president.
Second, Math
Hillary is unlikely to win enough pledged delegates in the remaining primaries to be able to clinch the nomination before the superdelegates can vote at the convention.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/sanders-is-right-on-super_b_9695718.html
Hillary has already won 1,443 pledged delegates in primaries and caucuses.
(This is 538's count as of last night. Other sources report slightly different numbers; Bloomberg says 1,428; NY Times/AP says 1,446. We'll keep it simple and use 1,443.)
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html
Based on polls summarized at RealClearPolitics, we are looking at the following in upcoming primaries (I've tried to generally lean toward using the figures that give Hillary a higher percentage of votes; so for Pennsylvania, for example, I used 55%):
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html
Legend:
state---total pledged delegates available---Hillary's predicted take (based on polling)---Hillary's likely delegates yield
CT 55--0.51--28
MD 95--0.58--55
PA 189--0.55--104
IN 83--0.48--40
CA 475--0.48--228
NJ 126--0.53--67
(In other words, for Connecticut, for example, there are 55 total pledged delegates available. Polling predicts Hillary will win about 51% of the votes, meaning about 51% of the pledged delegates will be awarded to her. 51% of 55 means she should get about 28 pledged delegates from Connecticut, based on recent polls.)
total pledged delegates Hillary is likely to win from these 6 states, based on recent polling:
28 + 55 + 104 + 40 + 228 + 67 = 522
That will give Hillary 1,443 + 522 = 1,965 pledged delegates.
There are an additional 13 states & territories that will also contribute pledged delegates, but I haven't seen polling for them, so I can't say what fraction Hillary is currently expected to win. These states/territories are:
DE 21
RI 24
Guam 7
WV 29
KY 55
OR 61
Virgin Is 7
PR 60
MT 21
NM 34
ND 18
SD 20
DC 20
The total yield from all of these latter states/territories is 377. In other words, if Hillary were to win 100% of all the pledged delegates from these states/territories where we don't have good polling, she would take an additional 377 delegates. (Obviously, she won't win ALL of their delegates in reality.)
The magic number to clinch the nomination is 2,383.
Since Hillary's pledged delegates haul is likely to be 1,965 after the 6 upcoming states for which we do have polls, she will need 2,383 - 1,965 = 418 additional pledged delegates from the states/territories for which we don't have good recent polls.
However, as noted above, even if she won ALL of the pledged delegates from those 13 states/territories, she would only get an additional 377 delegates. So she would still fall short by 418 - 377 = 41 pledged delegates.
Of course, anything could happen in the next few weeks. The polls could dramatically change based on a terrorist attack or huge gaffe or something--or the polls could just be wrong.
But if the polls are reasonably accurate and do not significantly change, and if my math is right, Hillary can't win this race by pledged delegates alone. She will have to make her case to superdelegates to stick with her--and they can't vote until the convention.
So any claims that the race is over and Bernie should drop out now are just Hillary camp propaganda. The nominee will be decided in Philadelphia at the end of July at the convention.
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