March 31, 2016

Bill Scher: "Sanders biggest problem is that no one over 30 trusts him."

Bill Scher gives a pretty straightforward analysis of the age gap and how it affects the 2016 Democratic Primary.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/how-bernie-sanders-can-win-213779

But to do that, Sanders has to figure out how to dramatically widen his base of support—and right away. In effect, this 74-year-old aspiring revolutionary needs to start gaining the trust of anyone older than 30. Sanders must swiftly persuade a large number of skeptical voters who are not part of his core of youthful enthusiasts, voters who are nonwhite, or middle-aged, or even his own age and older.

.....

Sanders may find it exceptionally hard to offer new material to his huge rallies of fans who desperately want to hear all his old hits. The last Vermont insurgent presidential candidate, Howard Dean, shared with the Huffington Post “Candidate Confessional” podcast earlier this year that “I knew I had to make the turn” from angry insurgent to plausible president, but “I couldn’t make myself do it. … I would try to give a measured speech, and the audience would be completely flat. And I wouldn't let myself leave them flat.”

Sanders has gone much further than Dean, much further than most people expected, without making that turn. But he has not gone far enough to win, and time is running out.

Does it seem like Sanders is almost a hostage now of his own fans' expectations? What does it say about his supporters that they won't stand for him even trying to appeal to anyone other than them? If he became the nominee, how would he pivot to appeal to a general election audience?

I just don't think he has it in him.

Edit: I realized this isn't very Hillary Clinton specific, so I hope it doesn't violate any Group rules. I just thought it was interesting, because it was so honest.

March 29, 2016

NYTimes TheUpshot: Clinton Favored the Rest of the Way

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/29/upshot/bernie-sanders-faces-tougher-terrain-after-a-big-week.html?_r=0

Hillary Clinton could win about 54 percent of the remaining delegates, according to estimates for coming primaries based on demographic trends. She needs 44 percent to win a majority of pledged delegates.

.....

It might not look too daunting after he just won at least 70 percent of the vote in five states. But the remaining states aren’t especially welcoming for him. Mrs. Clinton’s delegate advantage seems likelier to grow over the rest of the contests than to shrink. The remaining states force Mr. Sanders to confront his big weaknesses: affluence, diversity, establishment-friendly areas and closed primary contests.

.....

There are a lot of closed contests left, including New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, New Mexico, Delaware, Kentucky and Oregon. Mr. Sanders has not yet won a closed primary.

.....

The model picks up on Mrs. Clinton’s strength among nonwhite voters in a few ways, but the bottom line is that she has won every primary where white voters represent a below-average share of the electorate. She has won all but one county where nonwhite voters represented a majority of eligible voters in a primary — as is now the case in California as a whole.

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It's funny, I had commented earlier that I was looking for just this kind of analysis, maybe an hour or so before I found this. And while I previously thought that complacency might be the biggest remaining threat to Clinton's nomination, that recent poll about us Clinton supporters being more energized than Sanders supporters has really put some fire back in the furnace.

Just a few more weeks, everyone. Just a few more weeks of the slings and arrows from the Sanders supporters. Just a few more weeks until we don't have to hear from Jeff Weaver or Tad Devine for a long while. Just a few more weeks until we make history by nominating Hillary Clinton as the first woman to represent the Democratic Party in a presidential election!

Hang in there!

March 29, 2016

Tad Devine's 42 State Strategy?

Did he really just brag to reporters that the Sanders campaign actively chose not to compete in certain states? No wonder this donation-leeching consultant has 4 failed presidential campaigns under his belt. Bernie's will make it a solid 0-for-5 record on Devine's old campaign scorecard.

And now the Sanders campaign has a list of "secret super-delegates" who are "ready to back Bernie," just not publicly yet, because... reasons, apparently. Right, like that's not a classic failing (or flailing, take your pick) campaign tactic right there. Why would the candidate with only 30-odd super-delegates publicly behind him so far want to announce that more had come to his side, right?

March 19, 2016

New Republic: Who is the Hillary voter?

https://newrepublic.com/article/131762/hillary-voter

So perhaps Clinton voters don’t show up at rallies so much. Perhaps they are a bit less passionate on Facebook, share fewer articles, give less money to their candidate (she does have a super PAC, after all). But what they are doing is perhaps the only thing that actually matters in an election. They are showing up to vote. In numbers that no other candidate can boast.

"Momentum" and self-righteousness don't win elections. Voters do. I've said before that Clinton is running 2008 Obama's winning campaign, and by that I mean she has worked to maximize her strengths and limit her weaknesses, and has been very intelligent about where to invest time and resources. And it's paying off.

If anything, Clinton might need to thank the press for consistently underestimating her. Perhaps this is why her supporters are coming out for her in such strength: to assert their existence in the face of a narrative that both overlooks them and disparages their candidate.

I am constantly hearing about the "media bias" against Bernie Sanders. It seems he's getting a taste of what Hillary Clinton has been dealing with since at least 1993. Welcome to life outside the progressive bubble, Senator Sanders.

Clinton voters are in this all the way. Not just to elect Hillary Clinton, but to protect the legacy of President Obama. Maybe the difference is that we have something to defend, while other voters just want to go on the attack against anything and everyone that doesn't fit into their narrow worldview.

We've come a long way in this primary already, but let's not get complacent. There are still a lot of states left to vote, so let's do everything to help Hillary Clinton win them.

Clinton 2016.

March 16, 2016

Yesterday, Sanders needed 54% of remaining delegates. Today he needs 58%.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-is-following-obamas-path-to-the-nomination/

Sanders will need to win about 58 percent of the remaining 2,000 or so elected delegates to tie Clinton. Since the Democrats allot delegates proportionally, that means he’d need to win about 58 percent of the vote in the average remaining state to Clinton’s 42 percent, meaning he’d need to beat Clinton by around 16 points the rest of the way.

Problem is, there are only something like 2 or 3 "open" primaries left where independents can make a difference. Everything else is closed, registered Democrats only. And Clinton is winning them by a wide margin, enough to prevent any "blowouts" necessary for Sanders to catch up.

And the percentage of delegates he needs to win will only climb higher and higher as the race goes on.

March 8, 2016

Sanders fumbles tribute to 60th anniversary of Bloody Sunday in Selma

http://www.theatlantic.com/notes/all/2015/09/gaffe-track/403855/#note-472650
Gaffe Track: That's Not the Selma Bernie Was Looking For

The gaffe: Today, March 7, is the 60th anniversary of Bloody Sunday, when state troopers beat civil-rights marchers coming over the Edmund Pettus Bridge in Selma, Alabama. Seeking to mark the occasion, Sanders tweeted, “Bloody Sunday was about showing the entire world how far some would go to prevent African-Americans from voting,” along with a photo. As Twitter users quickly pointed out, that image, here via Politwoops, isn’t from the march—it’s from the acclaimed 2014 film Selma. Close, but no cigar!