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qdouble

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Member since: Wed Mar 16, 2016, 03:00 AM
Number of posts: 891

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One Thing Is Clear: Democrats can win elections without appealing to Republicans.

Even after Trump did everything imaginable to show that he was unfit for the job and we ran Joe Biden, a person no honest person would consider as a radical leftists, republican support for Trump only dropped a few percentage points at best. Beyond that, most Republican policy positions that are not based on culture wars are so unpopular that they won't publicly acknowledge them.

I think the exit polls are off a bit when it comes to voting demographics... but out of the people who voted for Trump 71% said having a strong leader was the most important quality in a candidate..."cares about people like me": 49%..."good judgement": 27% and "can unite the country": 23%.

Let that sink in. Unity and good judgement are the most important things to Democrats, but are the least important to Republicans. The majority of them do not care about good governance, they just want endless culture wars and low taxes for rich people.

What we did see is that if Democrats simply energize the base and independents (real Independents, not the Republicans pretending to be independents), then Democrats can win.

Pushing popular policies like Medicare-for-All, switching to green energy to combat climate change, getting rid of student debt, increasing police accountability and things of that nature are good ideas.

We should stop trying to convince Republicans of obvious things like racism is bad or that getting sick shouldn't lead to bankruptcy, because they know but just don't care.

Exit Polls can be just as inaccurate as regular polls

I've been seeing a ton of people in the media and on the web talk about how they can't believe that Trump got more support among certain groups of people as if exit polls are somehow 100% accurate, when they are not. They are based on samples, just like regular polls. Exit polls quite often over or under estimate certain groups and have to be adjusted as far as how they are weighted after all of the results are fully analyzed.

Given how people voted in several different ways this year, exit polling may be even more inaccurate than normal.

So claims about Trump getting more support among people of color may be completely false.

The Lincoln Project Probably Did Help the Democrats

I know a lot of people have been bashing the Lincoln project because Trump still had a very high turnout. However, if you look at the races county by county as the final votes come in, Biden made solid gains in a lot of urban and suburban areas. So while rural areas remained hardcore MAGA, it's likely that a good number of moderate Republicans who don't live in super Republican counties abandoned Trump this cycle.

Hopefully Democrats can figure out how to convert rural voters next cycle, but all is not lost. I suspect that a solid ground game and rallies may be a stronger motivator in terms of voting rather than political ads in those areas.

Reminder: NBC Estimates there are almost 18 Million uncounted ballots

Judging from the states that have the most uncounted ballots and factoring in the fact that more democrats voted by mail or early, I'll estimate that could easily break to be a 70%/30% split in favor of Biden.

That would put Biden at around 83 or 84 million votes and Trump at 72 or 73 million. So Biden would win 52 or 53% of the popular vote and Trump would win about 45 or 46%. So that means the national polls were pretty accurate.

The question is going to be why is the polling in certain battle ground states so off? How many undelivered ballots are there? Did voter suppression play a role? What else could it be?

Washington Post models project Biden will win WI and Pennsylvania

https://twitter.com/lennybronner/status/1324000690012856320

Be patient...the election is likely to end way better than it started
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