Beastly Boy

Beastly Boy's Journal

January 31, 2020

New IBD/TIPP national poll (A/B rated)

Joe Biden leads with 26% support in the February IBD/TIPP Poll, followed by Bernie Sanders at 19% and Elizabeth Warren at 13%. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, with 8% support, has pulled into fourth place, ahead of South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, backed by 7%.
Andrew Yang (4%), Amy Klobuchar (3%) and Tom Steyer (2%) are the only other candidates polling above 1%.

https://www.investors.com/politics/joe-biden-leads-bernie-sanders-but-trump-pulls-even-ibd-tipp/

January 31, 2020

New LA Times national poll: Biden +16

Biden 34%
Sanders 18%
Warre 16%
Buttigieg 9%
Bloomberg 9%
Klobuchar 3%

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-01-31/joe-biden-holds-lead-in-national-poll-is-it-a-firewall-against-iowa-new-hampshire-losses

January 31, 2020

New Park Street Strategies Iowa poll

Joe Biden 20%
Bernie Sanders 18%
Pete Buttigieg 17%
Elizabeth Warren 17%
Amy Klobuchar 12%
Andrew Yang 5%
Tom Steyer 4%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Michael Bloomberg <1%

Second choice candidate:
Elizabeth Warren 21%
Amy Klobuchar 16%
Joe Biden 16%
Pete Buttigieg 14%
Bernie Sanders 9%
Tom Steyer 6%
Andrew Yang 6%
Tulsi Gabbard 2%
Michael Bloomberg 2%

https://parkstreetstrategies.com/new-iowa-poll-biden-holds-small-lead-democratic-race-top-four-candidates-closely-clustered/

January 28, 2020

538: the poll numbers in early states change daily. But most of these changes are within MOE

Today, it's a virtual tie between Biden and Sanders in Iowa and Nevada, and a 5 point advantage for Sanders in NH.

Also, Biden leads Sanders in SC by 20, their respective standings are well within MOA in California and Maine, Biden is tied with Warren in Massachusetts with Sanders a distant third, Biden is 13 points ahead of Sanders in North Carolina, Biden leads Sanders by 8 in Texas, by 5 in Utah and by 13 in Virginia. No recent data is available for the other Super Tuesday states.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/

To mangle Mark Twain, the rumors of anyone surging in any race are being greatly exaggerated.

January 24, 2020

How Joe Biden went from slumping to surging in Democratic presidential race in Iowa

The turnaround for Biden, who trailed rivals Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg in Iowa for much of the past year despite leading in national polls, is a promising sign for the front-runner who received less than 1% of the vote in the state during his failed 2008 bid.

Biden is now ahead or tied for the lead in Iowa with Sanders, a U.S. senator from Vermont. He has also risen into second place behind Sanders in polling averages in New Hampshire, the second state to vote in the nominating battle.

snip

A win for Biden in Iowa could upend the race. Unlike Warren and Buttigieg, who are banking on a strong showing in the predominantly white state to propel their campaigns forward, Biden has far stronger support from African-American voters in South Carolina and other more diverse states that could help him seal the nomination

The contest remains extremely fluid and close among the top contenders. Biden also faces a threat from Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire former New York mayor who is spending millions of his fortune on his own White House campaign focused on later voting states.

Yet Biden's campaign has shifted from lowering expectations in Iowa to saying a win there would allow him to control the race from the start.

https://news.yahoo.com/joe-biden-went-slumping-surging-111521974.html

January 20, 2020

Odds makers everywhere except Las Vegas consider Biden front runner for the Democratic nomination

RCP average betting odds:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/democratic_2020_nomination/

January 10, 2020

Just as I suspected: Bloomberg is not running to win nomination.

He just pledged his entire campaign apparatus, including the big bucks that come with it, to the eventual Democratic nominee:
https://www.axios.com/mike-bloomberg-staff-general-election-democratic-nominee-8148b285-5108-4470-b8e4-577b3ca07a75.html

It appears that his two goals are: to position himself for the VP spot, no matter who the nominee is, and, more importantly, to piss Trump off, no matter who Trump runs against in the Generals. It's personal. Having been NY's mayor for 12 years, he's appears to really be pissed at Trump, and he is ready to hurt him where it hurts most.

Hey, that works for me, especially the last part!

January 3, 2020

Suddenly, Biden leads in Iowa!

By just 0.5% with an MOA greater than 3%, but some would consider it a surge...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/

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