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reggieandlee

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Member since: Wed Jul 20, 2016, 05:44 PM
Number of posts: 690

Journal Archives

BTRTN March 2019 Month in Review: Mueller Time Masks a Dreadful Month for Trump on Signature Issues

Born To Run The Numbers' March-in-review details just how much went wrong in the month that history may view as the finest of his presidency:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/04/btrtn-march-2019-month-in-review.html

Excerpts: "Now it is no great accomplishment to avoid being named as an unindicted co-conspirator – it’s not exactly up there with defeating Hitler, creating the Marshall Plan, winning the Cuban Missile Crisis, enacting monumental Civil Rights legislation, landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to Earth, signing the Camp David Accords, bringing down the Soviets, or killing Osama bin Laden. But it is something..."

"Trump can indeed crow for now about the legal validation of his long-repeated “no collusion, no obstruction” mantra, based on Attorney General Barr’s four-page conclusions... None of this may matter much in the long run of history, or even in the balance of Trump’s presidency. The month was chock full of setbacks of all kinds for the Trump Administration, on many of his signature issues...

"Trump’s approval rating ticked up one point to 42%, though the reality is that Trump remained smack in the middle of the same zone he has been in his entire presidency. Trump’s high point for any month was 46% in February, 2017, the first full month of his presidency, and the low was 38%, just six months later in August, 2017. But most of those months Trump has been in the 40-43% range. No president has operated in such a tight band in his first two years, another sign of the polarized world we live in and that Trump has exacerbated."
Posted by reggieandlee | Wed Apr 3, 2019, 08:44 AM (0 replies)

BTRTN: How to Break Out from the Crowded Pack of Candidates? Find "The Most Important Thing"

Born To Run The Numbers sees weak messaging strategies across the field of Democratic candidates, and has some stern advice:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/03/btrtn-how-to-break-out-from-crowded.html

Excerpts: "Yes, there is a silver lining in the Mueller report. Democrats finally know that the only way they can get Donald Trump out of office is at the ballot box. Now they can stop wasting time dreaming about impeachment and focus on the 2020 election. Democrats who assumed that Donald Trump would be so soiled by scandal and accusation that he would be very beatable in 2020 just got a monster of a wake-up call. It’s quite the opposite: Trump now has a blunt instrument that he can use to bludgeon Democrats… that he was right all along, noooooooo ko-luuuuge-shun! Witch Hunt! Fake News! Deep State!"...Most of you candidates are off to milquetoast starts... if Buttigieg can outshine six U.S. Senators, a current and former governor, and a few members of the House on his very first whirlwind tour of the talk shows, then the other declared Democrats are not cutting it. And that, even this early in the game, is cause for concern..." "Democratic candidates could actually learn a lesson from Trump. You can loathe him, diss him, curse him, and belittle him, but if you want to know how to break out from an over-crowded field of candidates, just take a look at his playbook. He showed sixteen reasonably impressive 2016 Republican presidential contenders what a long-shot candidate must do to seize the momentum. In 2016, Trump had a vastly superior marketing strategy than his opponents. He drew up an extremely short list of the issues that he calculated were the most important to the most Republicans. He decided to focus only on them, and to do so at a decibel level that could not be ignored. He chose immigration, the loss of manufacturing jobs, and 'stupid' treaties and deals that he claimed took advantage of the United States. Then he went after those three issues with a boldness, focus, and gusto that no other candidate matched..." Dems, do your homework. Study the playbook.

BTRTN: A Most Uncivil War... What Happens in America When the Mueller Report Drops?

Born to Run the Numbers on the fact that everyone is speculating about when the Mueller report will drop, but few appear to be thinking about how its arrival will impact an already deeply polarized society:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/03/btrtn-most-uncivil-war-what-will-happen.html

Excerpts:"If you thought that the pace of breaking news was already at a fever pitch – Dems in droves announcing their candidacy for the presidency in 2020, government shut-downs, emergency declarations of non-emergencies, more mass murders in tiny, peaceful countries -- then strap in and pull down the oxygen mask. Our country is about to fly into a category five shit storm and let’s just pray that we are not on a 737 Max...
"Does Mueller open Door #1 or Door #2? Treason Trump or Free Trump? In other words, which half of America is going to explode in anger? Because no matter what Mueller decides, somewhere between 30% to 50% of the United States is likely to be rip-roaring pissed off. Light the match, Mr. Mueller. Then pick which bone-dry pile of kindling you are going to toss it on...
"Protesters and counter-protestors are tinder looking for a match. Perhaps we should expect angry clashes. But in the fire this time, the confrontations are instantly viral on a zillion iPhones, sparks on gasoline all across the country. What could rapidly ensue: a most uncivil war with no geographic boundaries, only sectarian regions with prevailing influences. We become our own private Iraq, with the potential for violence to explode in communities around the nation. It is not a war of Red States and Blue States. It is Red people and Blue people sharing restaurants, bars, and stadiums, overhearing conversations, feeling cheated, and looking for trouble...
"No, it does not appear that the current President is making– or apparently planning – calming words to the nation about allowing the legal process to work through to completion.Quite the opposite: he appears to be getting his troops ready to rumble..."

BTRTN: A Most Uncivil War... What Happens in America When the Mueller Report Drops?

Born to Run the Numbers on the fact that everyone is speculating about when the Mueller report will drop, but few appear to be thinking about how its arrival will impact an already deeply polarized society:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/03/btrtn-most-uncivil-war-what-will-happen.html

Excerpts:"If you thought that the pace of breaking news was already at a fever pitch – Dems in droves announcing their candidacy for the presidency in 2020, government shut-downs, emergency declarations of non-emergencies, more mass murders in tiny, peaceful countries -- then strap in and pull down the oxygen mask. Our country is about to fly into a category five shit storm and let’s just pray that we are not on a 737 Max...
"Does Mueller open Door #1 or Door #2? Treason Trump or Free Trump? In other words, which half of America is going to explode in anger? Because no matter what Mueller decides, somewhere between 30% to 50% of the United States is likely to be rip-roaring pissed off. Light the match, Mr. Mueller. Then pick which bone-dry pile of kindling you are going to toss it on...
"Protesters and counter-protestors are tinder looking for a match. Perhaps we should expect angry clashes. But in the fire this time, the confrontations are instantly viral on a zillion iPhones, sparks on gasoline all across the country. What could rapidly ensue: a most uncivil war with no geographic boundaries, only sectarian regions with prevailing influences. We become our own private Iraq, with the potential for violence to explode in communities around the nation. It is not a war of Red States and Blue States. It is Red people and Blue people sharing restaurants, bars, and stadiums, overhearing conversations, feeling cheated, and looking for trouble...
"No, it does not appear that the current President is making– or apparently planning – calming words to the nation about allowing the legal process to work through to completion.Quite the opposite: he appears to be getting his troops ready to rumble..."

BTRTN: Job App for POTUS... No Experience Required. Indeed, No Experience Preferred.

Born To Run The Numbers looks back and reflects on what the history of Democratic Presidential nominees suggests about the prospects for the 2020 contenders:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/03/btrtn-job-app-for-potus-no-experience.html

Excerpts: "Somehow, however, the voting population of the United States has a different hiring philosophy. It’s as if they would conduct a job interview for a computer programmer by asking about the applicant’s proficiency as a dog groomer or endocrinologist. Or, worse still, they would say, 'So, you want to work for us a computer programmer? Just so you know: the more experience you have had as a computer programmer, the less attractive a candidate you are. We count relevant experience against you.' So it would appear to be. Repeatedly, Americans have chosen the candidate for President who has demonstrably less experience...
"Here’s another interesting fact... Democrats win when they nominate a youthful, relatively inexperienced charismatic. When they nominate a graying policy wonk, they lose. Think about that. John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama were all highly charismatic but nonetheless inexperienced candidates, and each would win the presidency while still in the forties. Democrats win when they embody generational change...
"In contrast, think about the imagery conjured by these names: Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis, Al Gore, John Kerry, and Hillary Clinton. Each of these candidates could blow you away with their command of policy detail, global politics, and the practical workings of government. Every single one of them was over fifty --most well over fifty -- when nominated for president. And yeah, maybe every single one of them would have been a fine President. But here’s the significant thing they have in common: the Democratic losers over the past forty years were all wooden technocrats who suffered from chronic charisma deficit disorder."

BTRTN: Hey, Democrats... Stop with the "Democratic Socialism." Try "Progressive Capitalism."

Born To Run The Numbers thinks that Bernie has the right ideas, but is marketing them with a terrible branding idea.

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/03/btrtn-hey-democrats-stop-with.html

Excerpts:
“Positioning a brand” means to give it a unique, powerful, and credible meaning that enables consumers to know exactly what they are getting, and getting exactly what they want. Think, if you will, of brands like BMW, which has promised its customers “the ultimate driving machine” for over 40 years...
"Positioning a candidate as a 'Democratic Socialist' is a really bad branding idea. Don’t get me wrong: I think Bernie Sanders has actually put his finger on the most critical issues facing our country. But he is giving his proposed solutions a terrible brand identity.
"A majority of Americans cannot tell you the difference between 'socialism' and 'communism,' and that if you actually tried to explain it, their eyes would glaze over and they would swivel back to re-runs of season four of 'Real Housewives of Atlanta...'
"The second reason for disposing of this branding device is actually more significant: 'Democratic Socialism' is a misleading description of the economic policies that we need to put in place to correct our society and our economy...
"And yet – and this is the scary part -- there is yet a third reason why 'Democratic Socialism' would be a branding disaster for Democrats. If the Democrats push “Democratic Socialism,” they will be reminding Donald Trump to talk more about his stewardship of the economy. They will be giving Trump a giant crowbar he can use to bang you over the heads of every Democratic candidate. They will be framing the 2020 debate on terms that are most favorable to Trump..."

BTRTN: Trump's February Ends With a Bang and a Whimper

Born To Run the Numbers with its February "Month in Review," a month in which Trump was pummeled on three fronts:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/03/btrtn-february-ends-with-bang-and.html

Excerpts: "If you can find a narrative for the month, it was the interweaving of three themes: Trump continuing to torture himself on immigration with his wildly unpopular 'national emergency' declaration; Trump pivoting to foreign affairs (to change the subject) and coming up empty; and more shocking revelations from various Russia-and-more investigations just ahead of the release of the Mueller report. The month ended in utterly epic fashion with Michael Cohen testifying against Trump for three days on Capitol Hill, while Trump fumed helplessly from Vietnam, in the midst of doomed de-nuclearization negotiations...

"And so it goes. It’s become axiomic that Trump likely has more to fear from the Southern District of New York than Mueller, yet this is quite a statement because Mueller seems to have the goods, at the very least, on the Stormy Daniels campaign-lawbreaking scheme. And if Trump believed that the long-awaited release of the Mueller report would end his troubles, he surely understands that is far from the truth, as the SDNY grinds on and the Democrats are just getting started...

"The bang of Michael Cohen’s public testimony, combined with the whimper of the North Korea talks, surely left the Trump Administration facing one of its lowest moments, with plenty of investigations ahead and no clear catalyst to improve Trump’s fortunes (such as a North Korea or China deal) readily apparent."
Posted by reggieandlee | Fri Mar 1, 2019, 06:32 PM (1 replies)

BTRTN: Trump's February Ends With a Bang and a Whimper

Born To Run the Numbers with its February "Month in Review," a month in which Trump was pummeled on three fronts:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/03/btrtn-february-ends-with-bang-and.html

Excerpts: "If you can find a narrative for the month, it was the interweaving of three themes: Trump continuing to torture himself on immigration with his wildly unpopular 'national emergency' declaration; Trump pivoting to foreign affairs (to change the subject) and coming up empty; and more shocking revelations from various Russia-and-more investigations just ahead of the release of the Mueller report. The month ended in utterly epic fashion with Michael Cohen testifying against Trump for three days on Capitol Hill, while Trump fumed helplessly from Vietnam, in the midst of doomed de-nuclearization negotiations...

"And so it goes. It’s become axiomic that Trump likely has more to fear from the Southern District of New York than Mueller, yet this is quite a statement because Mueller seems to have the goods, at the very least, on the Stormy Daniels campaign-lawbreaking scheme. And if Trump believed that the long-awaited release of the Mueller report would end his troubles, he surely understands that is far from the truth, as the SDNY grinds on and the Democrats are just getting started...

"The bang of Michael Cohen’s public testimony, combined with the whimper of the North Korea talks, surely left the Trump Administration facing one of its lowest moments, with plenty of investigations ahead and no clear catalyst to improve Trump’s fortunes (such as a North Korea or China deal) readily apparent."
Posted by reggieandlee | Fri Mar 1, 2019, 06:32 PM (0 replies)

BTRTN: What, Exactly, is at the "Heart" of the Special Counsel's Investigation?

Born to Run the Numbers is hearing mixed messages about the Mueller investigation. There are reports that it will be released imminently, but only last week The New York Times reported on an unredacted quote from Andrew Weissmann about "getting to the heart of the Special Counsel's investigation." What gives? Here's a theory:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/02/btrtn-what-exactly-is-heart-of-special.html

Excerpts: "Does The Times really think Mueller’s investigation has led to just 'a few hints' of collusion? For heaven’s sake, your own investigative reporters have exposed more than 'a few hints' on page one of your own paper. From where we sit, there appears to be more 'evidence of possible collusion' already sitting in plain sight than there are commercials for Trivago, golfers named Jason, Justin, Jordon, or Dustin, or even Democratic candidates for President. Geez, there’s probably a website called The Daily Collusion...
"Why wasn’t Weissmann’s comment redacted? It’s possible somebody goofed. But we doubt it. No, we suspect that Mueller wanted to make sure that everyone knows that conspiracy and collusion are still very much on the table. Particularly if he suspected that his soon-to-be-approved new boss has ideas of pressuring Mueller to bring his investigation to a rapid and premature conclusion. Perhaps the new Attorney General thinks that his best chance of saving Trump’s ass is to force the report into the public before Mr. Weissmann has actually gotten all the way to the 'heart.' Sure, we’ve been saying for a year that we’d love to see that report as soon as is humanly possible...for sake of the Constitution, the balance of power, the rule of law, and the United States of America. But now? Now we want to feel certain that Mr. Mueller and Mr. Weissman have all the time they need. Don’t be rushed. Do the job you’ve been asked to do, in exactly the way you think it should be done. Don’t let the new Attorney General force the issue.Take your time. Mr. Weissmann, go for it. Get to the heart of the matter."

BTRTN: What, Exactly, is at the "Heart" of the Special Counsel's Investigation?

Born to Run the Numbers is hearing mixed messages about the Mueller investigation. There are reports that it will be released imminently, but only last week The New York Times reported on an unredacted quote from Andrew Weissmann about "getting to the heart of the Special Counsel's investigation." What gives? Here's a theory:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/02/btrtn-what-exactly-is-heart-of-special.html

Excerpts: "Does The Times really think Mueller’s investigation has led to just 'a few hints' of collusion? For heaven’s sake, your own investigative reporters have exposed more than 'a few hints' on page one of your own paper. From where we sit, there appears to be more 'evidence of possible collusion' already sitting in plain sight than there are commercials for Trivago, golfers named Jason, Justin, Jordon, or Dustin, or even Democratic candidates for President. Geez, there’s probably a website called The Daily Collusion...
"Why wasn’t Weissmann’s comment redacted? It’s possible somebody goofed. But we doubt it. No, we suspect that Mueller wanted to make sure that everyone knows that conspiracy and collusion are still very much on the table. Particularly if he suspected that his soon-to-be-approved new boss has ideas of pressuring Mueller to bring his investigation to a rapid and premature conclusion. Perhaps the new Attorney General thinks that his best chance of saving Trump’s ass is to force the report into the public before Mr. Weissmann has actually gotten all the way to the 'heart.' Sure, we’ve been saying for a year that we’d love to see that report as soon as is humanly possible...for sake of the Constitution, the balance of power, the rule of law, and the United States of America. But now? Now we want to feel certain that Mr. Mueller and Mr. Weissman have all the time they need. Don’t be rushed. Do the job you’ve been asked to do, in exactly the way you think it should be done. Don’t let the new Attorney General force the issue.Take your time. Mr. Weissmann, go for it. Get to the heart of the matter."
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