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reggieandlee

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Member since: Wed Jul 20, 2016, 05:44 PM
Number of posts: 533

Journal Archives

BTRTN: Suburban Snapshot...One Republican's Reason for Backing Trump Spells Trouble -- for Trump

Born To Run The Numbers reports on a sustained, civil, and wide-ranging conversation with an upscale Trump supporter... and sees real dangers -- for Donald Trump:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/08/btrtn-suburban-snapshotone-republicans.html

Excerpts: "As recently as 2012, a spirited discussion of politics was a fair way to pass time ...I miss such conversations, because I ache to understand why so many people who voted for Trump plan on doing so again in 2020. Finally, I had a real conversation..."
"It was with the exact cohort of Republican that I find to be troubling… the citizens in affluent suburban towns. These are not the people who seethe with angry victimhood about losing the family breadwinner’s manufacturing job, not people who dismiss climate science, not people who would stand silent if a local town official spoke crudely about or molested their daughters..."
"...her infirm grip on the social policy issues of the Trump presidency -- and her efforts to minimize or excuse his handling of each – could have all been simply because these issues were not what truly mattered to her. She was essentially admitting to being a single issue candidate on the issue of the economy. Her statement that 'if one of those progressives gets nominated, I will probably vote for Trump,' was specifically targeted at the economic proposals of those candidates: healthcare, tax policy, and -- in her view -- the intent of turning the United States into a more “socialist” state. If even a small chunk of Donald Trump’s base thinks the way this person does, it is bad news for Donald Trump. Because the lady we spoke with was essentially saying to Donald Trump that as long as the economy is good for her, she’s good with Donald Trump."
"Those economic Republicans – who believe in math, science, and inverted yield curves – may be feeling sucker-punched that Donald Trump’s erratic economic policies are contributing to global economic destabilization and triggering a downturn."

BTRTN: Suburban Snapshot...One Republican's Reason for Backing Trump Spells Trouble -- for Trump

Born To Run The Numbers reports on a sustained, civil, and wide-ranging conversation with an upscale Trump supporter... and sees real dangers -- for Donald Trump:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/08/btrtn-suburban-snapshotone-republicans.html

Excerpts: "As recently as 2012, a spirited discussion of politics was a fair way to pass time ...I miss such conversations, because I ache to understand why so many people who voted for Trump plan on doing so again in 2020. Finally, I had a real conversation..."
"It was with the exact cohort of Republican that I find to be troubling… the citizens in affluent suburban towns. These are not the people who seethe with angry victimhood about losing the family breadwinner’s manufacturing job, not people who dismiss climate science, not people who would stand silent if a local town official spoke crudely about or molested their daughters..."
"...her infirm grip on the social policy issues of the Trump presidency -- and her efforts to minimize or excuse his handling of each – could have all been simply because these issues were not what truly mattered to her. She was essentially admitting to being a single issue candidate on the issue of the economy. Her statement that 'if one of those progressives gets nominated, I will probably vote for Trump,' was specifically targeted at the economic proposals of those candidates: healthcare, tax policy, and -- in her view -- the intent of turning the United States into a more “socialist” state. If even a small chunk of Donald Trump’s base thinks the way this person does, it is bad news for Donald Trump. Because the lady we spoke with was essentially saying to Donald Trump that as long as the economy is good for her, she’s good with Donald Trump."
"Those economic Republicans – who believe in math, science, and inverted yield curves – may be feeling sucker-punched that Donald Trump’s erratic economic policies are contributing to global economic destabilization and triggering a downturn."

BTRTN 2020 Vision: Are We Headed Toward a Biden-Warren Showdown?

Born To Run the Numbers provides its monthly snapshot of the state of the Democratic campaign:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/08/btrtn-2020-vision-are-we-headed-toward.html

Excerpts: "The main headlines from the 2020 presidential campaign in the last month, since mid-July, are as follows: Joe Biden remains at the head of the field, nationally and in each of the four 'early' states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina), and his support levels have stabilized. Elizabeth Warren continued her upward progress and pulled even with Bernie Sanders, while the momentum of Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg stalled. None of the remaining candidates surged into the 'top tier...'
"This race seems poised to follow a different pattern than either 2012 with its flavors or 2016 with Trump dominating. We could instead be very well be headed – ultimately -- for a one-on-one showdown between Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, a classic confrontation between the centrist and progressive wings of the party, more like Hillary versus Bernie in 2016. Biden seems to have solid support in the centrist wing of the party and there is no clear centrist alternative. While hardly an ideal candidate, Biden has a core 30% support level that has survived his slow-footedness during the debates and gaffes on the campaign trial. There is much to like about Biden: his centrist positioning; his deep experience; his authenticity and likeability; and his standing versus Trump, whom he routinely trounces in head-to-head polls... Warren seeming to be cruising by Sanders in the battle for the progressive wing in the party. No one else will emerge. Both Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg, the other two top tier contenders, are showing signs of being a bit past their peak..."
"There are four, and only four, potential candidates would could enter the race as late as December and immediately become a factor. Four candidates with the visibility and stature to offer a different, credible option. Can you name them? Read on..."

BTRTN: Trump, Send Me Back To The Country I Came From, Too

Born to Run the Numbers on two weeks in which our President’s racist and xenophobic rhetoric appears to be a contributing factor in another sickening wave of gun violence:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/08/btrtn-trump-send-me-back-to-country-i.html

Excerpts: "I, too, came from a different country, President Trump. It was far, far from where I live today in the United States of America. I miss the country I was born and raised in. It was better than the one I live in now. Go ahead. Tell me that if I am unhappy living in the United States, I should leave it and go home to where I came from. Yeah, I may be an English-speaking WASP dripping in privilege, but, hey – why not? Go ahead… I dare you. Tell me to go home, too...
"I’m not saying the country I came from was perfect. Far from. It had flaws. Big flaws. Inequities. Injustice. Discrimination. Biases. Factions. Anger. Even hate. But it woke up every day with a fierce determination to become better.
"Here's the essential difference between America then and America now: Back then, we had racial injustice, the bloodshed of a senseless war on the other side of the world, and a criminal in the White House. But we acted. We protested ferociously. We did something about each of these problems. Today, Republican leaders fan the flames of racial bigotry and discrimination, we have the bloodshed of ever-recurring gun madness in the town next door, and we have a criminal in the White House. And yet in the country I live in today, we do nothing..."
"Perhaps it is time that we all take a moment to look at the mass shooter in the mirror. No, nobody is saying that we pulled the trigger. No, we didn’t do that. We didn’t do anything. And that is the problem with the country I live in.We are not each pushing -- each in our own way, and each as hard as we can -- to bend the moral arc of the universe toward justice."

BTRTN: Trump, Send Me Back To The Country I Came From, Too

Born to Run the Numbers on two weeks in which our President’s racist and xenophobic rhetoric appears to be a contributing factor in another sickening wave of gun violence:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/08/btrtn-trump-send-me-back-to-country-i.html

Excerpts: "I, too, came from a different country, President Trump. It was far, far from where I live today in the United States of America. I miss the country I was born and raised in. It was better than the one I live in now. Go ahead. Tell me that if I am unhappy living in the United States, I should leave it and go home to where I came from. Yeah, I may be an English-speaking WASP dripping in privilege, but, hey – why not? Go ahead… I dare you. Tell me to go home, too...
"I’m not saying the country I came from was perfect. Far from. It had flaws. Big flaws. Inequities. Injustice. Discrimination. Biases. Factions. Anger. Even hate. But it woke up every day with a fierce determination to become better.
"Here's the essential difference between America then and America now: Back then, we had racial injustice, the bloodshed of a senseless war on the other side of the world, and a criminal in the White House. But we acted. We protested ferociously. We did something about each of these problems. Today, Republican leaders fan the flames of racial bigotry and discrimination, we have the bloodshed of ever-recurring gun madness in the town next door, and we have a criminal in the White House. And yet in the country I live in today, we do nothing..."
"Perhaps it is time that we all take a moment to look at the mass shooter in the mirror. No, nobody is saying that we pulled the trigger. No, we didn’t do that. We didn’t do anything. And that is the problem with the country I live in.We are not each pushing -- each in our own way, and each as hard as we can -- to bend the moral arc of the universe toward justice."

BTRTN July 2019 Month in Review: Will the Democrats Take the Plunge?

Born To Run The Numbers provides its review of the month of July, when the impeachment drumbeat grew ever louder, and Trump laid out his 2020 campaign strategy in all its divisive savagery. The Dems decided a good way to move forward was to attack Barack Obama(!), and Robert Mueller finally emerged from silence with, well, little more than a bunch of affirmative grunts.

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/08/btrtn-july-2019-month-in-review-will.html

Excerpts:
"Trump’s approval rating held at 43% for the third straight month. Our 'Trumpometer' measure of economic strength under Trump since his Inaugural dropped from +20 last month to +12 on a tepid Q2 GDP growth rate. Throughout the month Trump revealed his 2020 race-baiting campaign strategy in a series of ugly attacks, first on 'The Squad,' four U.S. representatives who are women of color, then on U.S. representative Elijah Cummings and the city of Baltimore. The 'impeachment now' movement gained momentum...
"On the foreign policy front, Trump suffered more setbacks. Iran announced it would soon breach the uranium enrichment levels established in the 2015 deal that Trump unilaterally withdrew from, with the strategy that ramping up sanctions would tank the Iranian economy and force them back to the negotiating table weakened and willing to go further in concessions. That strategy not only shows no sign of working...
"Trump also signed off on a Budget agreement with the Dems that was largely viewed as a Pelosi win (and which the GOP could not pass without significant Democratic help). One remembers a Trump campaign promise that he would not only eliminate the deficit but the entire debt in an 8-year year – yes, eliminate the entire $20 trillion of debt. Ah, good old GOP orthodoxy – tough on the Russians, tough on the debt, tough, tough, tough. Where has that GOP gone? (The debt is now just under $22 trillion.)"
Posted by reggieandlee | Sun Aug 4, 2019, 01:24 PM (1 replies)

BTRTN July 2019 Month in Review: Will the Democrats Take the Plunge?

Born To Run The Numbers provides its review of the month of July, when the impeachment drumbeat grew ever louder, and Trump laid out his 2020 campaign strategy in all its divisive savagery. The Dems decided a good way to move forward was to attack Barack Obama(!), and Robert Mueller finally emerged from silence with, well, little more than a bunch of affirmative grunts.

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/08/btrtn-july-2019-month-in-review-will.html

Excerpts:
"Trump’s approval rating held at 43% for the third straight month. Our 'Trumpometer' measure of economic strength under Trump since his Inaugural dropped from +20 last month to +12 on a tepid Q2 GDP growth rate. Throughout the month Trump revealed his 2020 race-baiting campaign strategy in a series of ugly attacks, first on 'The Squad,' four U.S. representatives who are women of color, then on U.S. representative Elijah Cummings and the city of Baltimore. The 'impeachment now' movement gained momentum...
"On the foreign policy front, Trump suffered more setbacks. Iran announced it would soon breach the uranium enrichment levels established in the 2015 deal that Trump unilaterally withdrew from, with the strategy that ramping up sanctions would tank the Iranian economy and force them back to the negotiating table weakened and willing to go further in concessions. That strategy not only shows no sign of working...
"Trump also signed off on a Budget agreement with the Dems that was largely viewed as a Pelosi win (and which the GOP could not pass without significant Democratic help). One remembers a Trump campaign promise that he would not only eliminate the deficit but the entire debt in an 8-year year – yes, eliminate the entire $20 trillion of debt. Ah, good old GOP orthodoxy – tough on the Russians, tough on the debt, tough, tough, tough. Where has that GOP gone? (The debt is now just under $22 trillion.)"
Posted by reggieandlee | Sun Aug 4, 2019, 01:23 PM (0 replies)

BTRTN: Pinata Biden... VP Fights But Fails to Parry Onslaught. The Race is Opening Up.

Born to Run the Numbers provides its analysis of the Democratic Debates:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/08/pinata-biden-vp-fights-but-fails-to.html

Excerpts: "After two debates, we know this much: Joe Biden is not holding up well under the merciless incoming raining down on the reigning front runner. He was more assertive last night than in the prior debate, but there were too many instances in which he was halting, uncertain, or simply unable to find the words to counter effective charges. Biden was, at best, uneven, and that makes twice in a row. Were this trend to continue, it would be unsustainable...
"The good news for Biden? No single, strong, voice has emerged that shows the muscle to screw a rudder on the stern and steer a firm course through choppy seas. Kamala Harris faltered after her strong first debate. Cory Booker finally emerged as a powerful force, which could trigger his ascent into the top tier...
"Elizabeth Warren was roundly celebrated for a strong showing in the Wednesday night debate, but that entire evening placed the issue of radical vs. incremental change in stark relief. As strong as Warren was, she simply emerged as the champion of a radical strategy that may be inherently flawed in a party that simply and only wants a candidate who can beat Donald Trump...
"Pete Buttigieg turned in his usual solid performance, and is so well funded that his future in the race is solid. Julian Castro had a another strong performance. Amy Klobuchar seemed tougher and more involved in the second debate, but it is questionable whether she really punched through the din. Beto O’Rourke continues to fade, unable to break through decisively on any single issue...
"In short, it’s now more open than it was three months ago...
"Here’s how we score it: (provides rankings of individual candidate performances)...

Posted by reggieandlee | Thu Aug 1, 2019, 08:33 AM (3 replies)
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