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molova

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Member since: Mon Jul 25, 2016, 02:02 PM
Number of posts: 543

Journal Archives

Pollster alert: auto_alliance/@ESAGovAffairs owned by a Republican lobbyist

This pollster has been very active in Twitter lately, pretending to have found results very favorable to Donald Trump. The CEO is Mitch Bainwold. Here is his Bio:

After his studies, Bainwol became a member of staff for various Republican political figures from 1977 until 2003 (Robin Beard, Connie Mack, Bill Frist and the RNC) before founding the Bainwol Group, a Washington, D.C.-based lobby group. More specifically, he served as a Congressional staff intern to Robin Beard, an employee of the U.S. Office of Management and Budget, a Congressional Staff Chief to Senator Connie Mack, a Congressional Staff Senate Leadership Staff Director, a member of the Republican National Committee, a consultant for Clark and Weinstock, a Congressional Staff Executive Director for the National Republican Senate Committee, and a Congressional Staff Chief of Staff to Senator Frist.[2] In 2003 he joined the RIAA as its CEO, succeeding Hilary Rosen. He serves as a member of the Board of the National Fatherhood Initiative, the Leadership Music Foundation and the Bryce Harlow Foundation.[3]


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitch_Bainwol

Magellan (prestigious pollster): Hillary +6 in Colorado

Someone please find out the dates. For some reason I cannot reach the website https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/794275426197766146

Melania Trump apparently steals line from Trump second ex-wife

"If you could dream it, you could become it ."

Melania Trump has allegedly committedly plagiarism again, according to this account https://twitter.com/LatPoliticalAve/status/794249853035577345

107 hours until election day

107.

Unbelievable. Pundits are paying more attention to NH polls than FL polls

Despite Florida having a gazillion electoral votes, and NH having 4.

The reason being, of course, that the latest NH trends have favored Trump whereas the latest FL polls have favored Clinton, and you gotta keep it close, you know.

I've known no other candidate having to face so much headwind against the media, where emails trumps sexual assault and NH trumps FL.

OpinionSavvy poll (Nov. 1-2) of Florida: Clinton 49%, Trump 45%

The poll was conducted for Fox.
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/OS-FL-General-11.3.16.pdf

Entirely post-Comey and it seems to be one of the most recent polls conducted so far (further in time from ComeyCoup-gate).

PDF here: http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/OS-FL-General-11.3.16.pdf

CBS/NYT (Oct. 25-28): Obama +1 over Romney

Obama won by 4%.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html#polls

Today CBS/NYT has Hillary up by 3%.

Will Jill Stein get to 1%?

I'm starting to have doubts of her even reaching that mark.

4 days, 15 hours, 28 minutes

Until election day.

I eagerly await and expect the downfall of the polling industry on November 8th

It seems that on November 8th, the polling industry will continue to be dealt major blows, after performing atrociously in Brexit, the Colombia referendum, and Iceland.

Today we see a wide lead in NH by Hillary (SurveyMonkey) whereas MassInc has Trump ahead by 1%. that guarantees that
one of those polling outfits will be discredited forever.

In Nevada, where early voting strongly suggests a Hillary victory, it appears that every single pollster there will have egg on its face.
Pollsters are saying the race will be close there, and SurveyMonkey even has Trump ahead by 1%, which is ludicrous.
In 2012, the polling average had Obama winning by 2%, and he won by 6 %.

SurveyUSA will have to close operations if their latest NC poll (Trump +7) is their last one, provided that Hillary wins NC as demographics and early voting suggest.

Rasmussen's tiny bit of reputation will dissipate as they once again pick the wrong US President. They have Trump ahead by 3% today.

Don't get me started on the LA Tracking poll.

I expect the debacle to be greater than 2012, when Gallup and Rasmussen fucked up big time.

I personally will love the fact that polls will lose their credibility, so that pundits can focus on the issues in 2020 instead of the horse race.
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