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radius777's Journal
radius777's Journal
October 12, 2020

It is different but has its own challenges.

2020 is much more favorable terrain on paper for us; but the reality is we are in the middle of a pandemic with unprecedented levels of mail in voting in states that lack a history of doing it. Mail-in voting during the primaries across the country saw a relatively high rate of 'spolied ballots' (those discarded on technicalities). Polls show Dem voters are heavily the ones using mail in, where GOP voters are going in person. Then add in the typical GOP voter suppression tactics and this election is far from certain. Trump/Turtle are desperate and will do anything to hold onto power, and we have to hope our Dem lawyers etc are ready to fight as hard as Repubs do. We can't have another 2000 situation where we were played (Brooks Brothers Riot, etc) and a RW Supreme Court gave the election to Bush.

So while things look good on paper, in reality we need to vote like our lives depend on it and be prepared to battle it out afterwards if necessary.

October 8, 2020

Katie Couric called them out. Here is the video of the focus group:

The problem with our presidential elections is that due to the Electoral College the president is chosen by moderate and independent white voters in swing states who don't really question social biases etc, and tend to be center-right if anything - and this holds back the country. If we went by the popular vote then more liberal and urban and diverse voters would play a much greater role in shaping how we are.

Katie Couric joined the conversation and did question them about sexism, some of their responses were interesting.

Note that this same focus group after the Trump-Biden debate was actually upset at Biden for calling Trump a clown/racist/failure etc and thought Biden was 'just as responsible' for the debate devolving. Some saw Trump as strong and Biden as weak and old, yet didn't see Biden as justified in defending himself. They seem to have a both-siderist worldview and tend to side with existing power structures.

Keep in mind that Luntz is a GOP pollster. The CNN focus groups (post Biden-Trump debate and post Harris-Pence debate) showed much better reactions for Biden and Harris, as well as the polls which showed that they won.
October 8, 2020

I worry about this. Trumpers are fearful

of mail-in ballots (which are likely to be heavily Dem this time) and will do anything to reinstall their cult leader. Not to mention the run of the mill GOP voter suppression that causes many ballots to be spoiled (thrown out) on technicalities. During the primaries across the country there was a relatively high rate of spoiled ballots. The only true way to make sure your vote counts is to go in and vote. Most states have early voting.

October 7, 2020

Dems retaking Senate may hang on this seat, next best chance is Greenfield in Iowa.

We need 4 seats and likely have 3 (CO, AZ, ME) in the bag. We need one more to make 50 and then VP Harris will be the tie-breaker.

Cal needs to simply come clean and admit he had affairs (there is another woman that came out), apologize and move on.

He needs to stress that while he has had personal failings, Tillis/Trump/McConnell represent a clear and present danger to the country.

October 4, 2020

IMO it's much better to just mask up and go in and vote.


Most states have early voting, simply go in on a quieter day.

The problem with mail in ballots (especially due to GOP voter suppression tactics) is that many are thrown out for petty technicalities such as a signature not perfectly matching what they have on record.
October 4, 2020

I agree we should invest in Texas.

more from the article:

For months, Biden’s polling average has consistently been within the margin of error in Texas. And the race continues to tighten. But what is important to understand is since the 2008 election, polling of the Texas electorate has significantly underestimated Democratic performance because, unlike demographically declining states, Texas has a growing, dynamic electorate with many new voters who are younger, more likely to have college degrees and more likely to be people of color — and often difficult to poll. As a result of this rapid demographic change, Texas is not only more racially diverse and urban than most other swing states, but also more rapidly trending Democratic. Unlike the Rust Belt, where the polls underestimated Trump’s strength on Election Day, the polls in Texas underestimated Hillary Clinton’s performance by 4.9 percent.

The modern Dem party is the party of metro areas (urbs and suburbs) and college towns, and Texas has alot of them. The small town centric Rust Belt is trending away from us. Biden is doing much better with non-college whites this time, and we can't continue to hemorrhage such voters in the future. But what is clear is that the Sunbelt (AZ, TX, GA, NC) seems to look more like what the Dem party actually is, rather than what it was.

If Biden were to win TX it actually would be less shocking than it was for Trump to win the Rustbelt, where the polls were wrong due to a failure to catch demographic realignment. It's possible (as the article alludes to) the poll models are also wrong in TX this time for similar reasons, which would mean Biden could win by a few points there.

The article speaks about PA and the chaos that could ensue there - and I agree with that analysis. PA lacks a history of doing mail in voting and even for the in person voting has new machines that could lead to chaos (and hacking). IOW, we should have other paths that don't include PA - and TX should be one of them. OH and IA also look possible.

FL 'should' be the state that does it for us, but it has a Latino population that is more conservative than elsewhere. The Dem party in the state historically has been outsmarted by the GOP there, who seemingly has rigged the state. IOW, FL is not a state we should count on (though should always try to win).
October 2, 2020

Trump made his own bed

and now has to lie in it. And that would be bad enough but he also made the bed for 200k people who would've been alive had he not tried to pretend the virus away in order to prop up the stock market for his rich friends.

At first there may be a 'sympathy bump' in his approvals, but this situation more than anything vindicates Biden's message of mask wearing and adherence to scientific guidelines which Trump mocked - and this will result in more votes for Biden.

The Boris Johnson situation is different as he actually was contrite, thanked the front-line workers etc. He also iirc won his race convincingly and it was early in his term. In contrast we are less than 30 days before an election and everyone is 'dug in'.

As to what the MAGAts will accept? Who cares - they won't accept anything short of Trump being installed as dictator for life. Trump alone is to blame for his situation we just hope he didn't also infect Joe.

October 1, 2020

Just vote in person, NY has early voting.


Most states have a site to check your voter registration and lookup polling place. In any state that has early voting people should just go in on a quiet day and wear proper PPE.

States that have typically not used mail-in voting are clearly going to have issues, as they are 'learning on the job', which is worrisome in such states that are swing states.
October 1, 2020

Agree, Trump and McConnell will just use it to make themselves look

like 'compassionate conservatives', ie 'Trump's really not that bad of a guy after all'. Swing voters who don't understand politics that much will just see it as a Trump win. It undercuts Biden's critique of Trump as an unfeeling rich guy whose selfishness and mismanagement led to 200k deaths.

Trump still has good ratings on the economy despite all that has happened, and I suspect the Cares Act may have something to do with it. IOW, what was an FDR/left-wing type of bill that people should be thanking Dems for - they don't necessarily do that.

We need to wait until after the election to pass anything and simply make it retroactive. Doing anything now could upset the dynamics which doesn't make sense when we're solidly ahead.

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