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Member since: Sun Sep 11, 2016, 09:37 PM
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+1. I've heard many people say this.

Someone as awful as Trump should be 20 points down, should've been impeached, etc, etc.

We have to thank Trump for one thing: he revealed the truth about our country (that many of us long suspected) and the nature of many of its citizens (many have no problem with a fascist as long as he's 'their facist') and institutions (police are a RW militia).

The good news is Biden does have solid and durable lead and nobody on our side is taking anything for granted like maybe some did last time. Biden's message is sharpening - he's hitting Trump hard where it hurts and I doubt there's anything Trump can do as the bodybags pile up and the October surprises rain down on him.

As Biden said in his acceptance speech - "I will be an ally of the light" - we just have to hope the light prevails.

We need to pitch a 'liberal' white identity politics.

As a gen-x PoC who grew up with many culturally liberal whites (ie, they are pro-choice and not religious) who now vote GOP - we can get these people back into the Dem column with the correct messaging.

Some white voters have the perception that Dems are for 'all of these other people' but have nothing specific for them. Like it or not people are snowflakes and like to feel catered to. We need to have an agenda specifically for (and use the term) 'white working class', and offer liberal solutions for alot of the problems (drugs, mental health, jobs, trade/outsourcing, education, healthcare, climate) that face many white communities.

Immigration is an issue that Trump killed us on with many groups, including some blacks, latinos, women, etc. We need to make it clear we support DACA but also believe in strong borders... basically take a centrist postion on immigration. Most voters don't want too much immigration, legal or illegal, as it puts too much pressure on the labor market, services, etc.

Guns often kill us with rural whites (and even some rural/southern latinos). We have to stress that we support gun control while respecting the rights of responsible gun owners. It's about getting guns out of the hands of dangerous people, which is good for everyone.

Carville knows what he's talking about.

I'm not a big fan of the Bernie wing, but the article in WaPo that came out the other day was very good, in terms of critiquing the weaknesses of the Biden campaign.

A great Dem once said 'it's the economy, stupid' and we can't allow Trump to beat us on this issue, which polls show to be Trump's one strong point.

We keep hearing that Trump lied about the virus, but we don't hear why. It's up to Biden/Harris to connect the dots. Trump lied to prop up the stock market while shoveling money (via the Fed and zero interest rates) to big corps - while forcing regular people into the pandemic to die for the 1 percent. Dems are the ones who passed the Cares Act and then the Heroes Act that is still being blocked by the GOP - while regular folks wait on food lines and have lost their healthcare.

the LA sheriff's dept is bad news

Whistleblower: California Deputy Killed Teen to Join Department’s “Gang”
“It is very disturbing – to say the least – that gangs are commonly known to exist within the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department. These reports go to the heart of our concerns that the Sheriff’s Department promotes and harbors a culture of violence against the public. Make no mistake, we have every intention of conducting a thorough investigation into the potential involvement of any Sheriff’s Department gang in the shooting of Andres Guardado.”

More than a dozen deputies have matching tattoos and belong to a violent clique called the Executioners at the station, according to Deputy Art Gonzalez, who filed a whistleblower complaint regarding the Executioners in June.

“I now call them a gang because that’s what gangs do – they beat up other people,” Gonzalez said.

His sworn testimony obtained by Spectrum News is for a separate excessive force case filed against Los Angeles County. The deputies in the lawsuit are accused of “chasing ink” – slang for trying to impress the Executioners to join their group.

“There are parties after shootings. They call them ‘998 parties.’ Some people say it’s to celebrate the deputy is alive. Others say it’s to celebrate that they’re going to be ‘inking’ somebody.”

LAist Reporter Josie Huang Arrested While Covering Protest
Even as she was being thrown to the ground, Huang — who was wearing a lanyard with her press credential hanging from her neck — was recording the encounter. In video that continued to film after her phone was knocked from her hand, Huang can be heard repeatedly identifying herself as a reporter and shouting “KPCC” several times. You also can hear Huang yelling "you're hurting me" and crying out in pain.

The incident occurred outside St. Francis Medical Center in Lynwood, where the two deputies were being treated for gunshot wounds. Huang had just finished covering a 10 p.m. news conference by Sheriff Alex Villanueva and other department officials.

Sheriff’s officials allege that Huang, an award-winning journalist, obstructed justice. The department initially refused to provide details of what happened, but later, Deputy Juanita Navarro of the Sheriff's Information Bureau confirmed that deputies took Huang into custody on suspicion of obstruction of justice by "interfering with a lawful arrest." Huang said she was trying to document the arrest of a protester, an account in line with her video from the scene.

Navarro also said Huang "didn't have proper credentials," but she was clearly wearing press credentials around her neck. A tweet from the Sheriff’s Department at 2:19 a.m. Sunday includes a false claim that Huang did not identify herself as a journalist. Huang told deputies at least five separate times that she was a reporter and KPCC staffer in less than a minute, according to the recording.

The polls were wrong in key states in the Midwest.

The poll models underestimated turnout of 'white non-college' voters (the white working class and rural whites) and overestimated turnout of urban PoC, which is why they were off by several points. Hillary didn't campaign in those states because both public and private polls said she was way ahead, and Comey's actions 11 days before the election sealed the deal (by shifting the undecideds heavily to Trump).

Alot of people on Twitter and Youtube noted that our convention was too touchy feely, and some of the musical performances were mocked by young people (especially the 'For What it's Worth' performance). Like it or not, some people are moved by 'fire and brimstone' and want to see some level of toughness and straight talk about policies.

I've never liked Sanders and thought he was vindictive in 2016. But I think this time he is operating in good faith and is just telling us what he is seeing amongst the demographics he handily won. Nevada concerns me as there have been several reports that Biden is underperforming with Latinos and youth as he did in the primaries. Bernie crushed in Nevada and we need his help, also with other swing states that could be decided by Latinos (especially young Latinos).

TLDR; we need to ignore the national polls and pay attention to state level and demographic trends, which are showing some weaknesses with certain groups, as we don't want to be 'surprised' and lose states we think we're going to win.

Alot of that message is spread by RW operatives and Russian bots

pretending to be black/brown Trump supporters, ie 'digital blackface' is what it's called, and it's designed to divide the Dem base and suppress votes.

To be sure there are PoC (conservative, as well as some far-left) who are anti-Dem and buy that message. But it is a message that is mainly spread as propaganda to divide.

+1. Any PoC who votes for Trump is a disgrace.

This is not about liberal vs conservative. Trump has transformed the GOP into an alt-right ethnofascist party and any PoC who votes for such a party is a self-hating bootlicker.

As a gen-x MoC, I can say that Bernie is correct.

I'm an Obama/Clinton Dem and no fan of the Bernie wing (especially on Twitter, many of them are rabid Dem haters) but Bernie himself is fully behind his friend Joe Biden in this thing and his advice is sound.

Biden is running a campaign that is in many ways similar to Hillary's: looking at good poll numbers (which could be wrong, just like last time) while ignoring the lack of enthusiasm amongst key demographic groups. This neglect could spell doom in swing states where every vote counts.

Younger voters especially PoC youth feel alienated and upset about many issues; Latino voters are not 'automatic Dem votes' and need to be messaged to properly; male voters are an issue and we can't continue to lose them as even male PoC voters seem to be drifting away. Our convention was overly touchy feely (as someone mentioned above) and this may work to get soccer moms but fails with alot of other demographics who are looking for harder answers to kitchen table issues.

The big mistake Dems are making is letting Trump beat them on the economy. A great Dem once said 'it's the economy stupid' and that is what it boils down to in moving alot of these voters into our column. Biden has to do a better job of connecting Trump's chaos and covid mismanagement to the failure of the economy for regular people. Because Trump is good at tricking people into the idea that he's some great businessman and that 'the stock market = the economy = everyone doing good'. More people than you would think buy that bullshit and Dems need to refute that narrative.

We keep hearing from Dems that 'Trump downplayed the virus' but we don't hear why he lied. He lied to prop up the stock market which he viewed as key to his reelection, pumped money (via the Fed) to these companies, at the same time forcing regular people into the pandemic to die for the 1 percent. That is the message we need to be pounding, that Trump=death and darkness and Biden is 'an ally of the light' who offers a bright future (and bulletpoint the policies which will lead people there).

For some reason Trump still polls well on the economy.

How these states hit hard by the virus play out electorally comes down to which party they blame more.

Remember, Trump is effective at gaslighting and his narrative boils down to 'Dems are exaggerating and shutting down the economy causing you to lose money'.

Biden/Dems are refuting this, but need to do so more powerfully, so that voters know that it was Trump and his mismanagement of the virus that led to the pandemic spiraling out of control thus damaging the economy for regular people - all to protect the stock market for the rich and his reelection.

Biden is leading in the betting markets.


Nate Silver has Biden as a 3:1 favorite but the markets have Biden favored at a slight coin flip (53 to 43). Markets could be factoring the '2016 shell shock factor' (that the polls could be wrong again) as well as Trump going to any lengths to win (voter suppression, kneecapping the post office, etc).

Note that the betting markets are not necessarily predictive in big races, as they were completely wrong in 2012(had Romney over Obama), in 2016 (Hilary was up to 87cents the day before election day), and this year in the primaries (thought Bloomberg would win, thought Bernie would win), and for the VP pick (Susan Rice was way ahead on the day Harris was chosen).

RW white guys with disposable income heavily dominate betting action, thus their viewpoint is reflected. Regardless of what some say, it's impossible to separate worldview from betting especially in a presidential race in such a polarized environment. The Russians and others could also be pumping money into the market to make things look better for Trump.

Even Nate Silver has said betting markets are not predictive.

Markets of any kind are potentially subject to herding behavior. Even if the “rogue trader” does not have superior information about the campaign, other traders might alter their behavior assuming that he did.

Or traders could be betting on speculation – buying up Mr. Romney’s stock, for example, in the hope of selling it at a higher price later, even if that price diverged from their estimate of the “fundamentals” in the race.

Coming up with a probabilistic assessment of the chances of each candidate’s winning the Electoral College is intrinsically a very challenging task. ”Gut-feel” probability estimates are not likely to be much good. It is the sort of problem, in my view, that benefits from a more rigorous approach, i.e. building a model. Yet, models are constrained by the lack of historical data and the infrequency of presidential elections – only since about 1980 has state-by-state polling of the election been common.

In these circumstances, traders may be looking for an anchor to calibrate their assessment of the probabilities. It is certainly possible that FiveThirtyEight itself serves something of this function.

The FiveThirtyEight model is sometimes perceived as being incredibly bold for having Mr. Obama as a two-to-one favorite despite what is certainly very close polling, but the few other models that seek to frame the election in probabilistic terms tend to give Mr. Obama an even clearer advantage, putting his odds at between 80 and 95 percent.
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