because he understands the crucial Midwestern states and how the white working class voters (which we do need at least a good portion of) think.
The documentary film-maker Michael Moore has warned that Donald Trump appears to have such momentum in some battleground states that liberals risk a repeat of 2016 when many wrote off Trump only to see him grab the White House.
Sorry to have to provide the reality check again, he said.
Moore, one of few political observers to predict Trumps victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016, said that enthusiasm for Trump is off the charts in key areas compared with the Democratic party nominee, Joe Biden.
Are you ready for a Trump victory? Are you mentally prepared to be outsmarted by Trump again? Do you find comfort in your certainty that there is no way Trump can win? Are you content with the trust youve placed in the DNC [Democratic National Committee] to pull this off? Moore posted on Facebook late on Friday.
Moore identified opinion polling in battleground states such as Minnesota and Michigan to make a case that the sitting president is running alongside or ahead of his rival.
The Biden campaign just announced hell be visiting a number of states but not Michigan. Sound familiar? Moore wrote, presumably indicating Hillary Clintons 2016 race when she made the error of avoiding some states that then swung to Trump.
The Midwest is not the Dem stronghold it once was, white voters have moved rightward (and Trump's fear tactics work with many of them), and there is voter suppression to stop liberal constitutencies (youth, PoC, etc) from voting.
Biden/Dems need to fight like our lives depended on it for those states. We can afford to lose MN and/or WI (especially if we win FL) but must win both PA and MI.
The GOP scoops them up because they play to white identity and make the Dems out to be only for PoC, women etc and not for them.
We need to speak directly to them - not in a race neutral sense - but specifically about issues (jobs, healthcare, drug addiction, mental health, etc) affecting whites and be clear about it being a 'white working class agenda'. Same goes for young voters, speak directly to their issues and be clear it's 'for them'. IOW, we need to add identities to our list of groups we fight for.
As a gen-x aged PoC, I can tell you that many gen-x (middle aged) and younger whites are not really conservative, and can be reached by speaking directly to them. They complain about identity politics but really only because they don't feel included or that a message is tailored 'for them only' the way we message to blacks/latinos/women/gays etc.
The 'liberal elite' narrative is bullshit when we consider that Dem voters have a lower avg income than Repub.
Rural whites (and conservative whites in general) don't like to be called out on their retrograde views on race/gender/etc - hence 'snobby liberals telling me what to do'. Too bad - they've been coddled for hundreds of years.
Some of which is based on hard data, other is based on worldview. White guys overwhelmingly hold an anti-Dem (or Dem paranoia) worldview which is reflected in the markets.
In 2016 Hillary was up to 86 cents on the day before election day. White guys have deep fear of Hillary and always think she can magically be president at any moment. Many still think she will be 'inserted' as president if Biden wins.
This year, Susan Rice was up to 65 cents on the day Harris was chosen. Rice has long been feared by white guys as 'another Hillary'.
The riots are not having the impact white guys think it will. Most voters outside of white guy world know Trump is divisive and destructive, and are not going to blame the calm/steady Biden - he's not the president, Trump is.
These are people pretending the be antifa and BLM in order to defame the left/liberals/Dems in the minds of white voters.
IOW, to sit back and look clueless to people's safety concerns.
Biden/Harris should've been there first on the ground, to talk about support for racial justice as well as safety.
They need to hit Trump directly for creating the chaos in this country via his divisiveness, and for the Covid mishandling, which also cratered the economy for Main St while Wall St soars. Trump presents himself as the solution, but he really is the problem and we need to vote him out to get back to some form of normalcy.
Thuggery and crime will always exist regardless of class/economics, and we will always need some form of police to handle it.
But I aree that most things cops do should be replaced by social workers, psychologists, etc.
Busting the police unions and rehiring based on true ability and merit would drastically improve policing.
Biden was strong yesterday when he said 'Trump is rooting for violence.. this is Donald Trump's America.. throwing gasoline on the fire.'
This is exactly the correct angle - turn it around and blame him for it - he is the president and swing voters always blame those in power.
Everyone knows (even many who support him) that he is the divider-in-chief who is the source of anger and division in this country
We need to pound this message: Trump divisive/responsible for chaos and covid / Biden calm and empathetic who will restore sanity and decency. Biden and Harris also have law and order records and are the farthest thing from 'anarchy'.
and anti-Dem LW white men as well.
That's why the value of prediction markets isn't that great, because they aren't simply betting in a neutral sense to make money, but it's all wrapped up in anti-Dem hatred.
Example: many of them on the PredictIt boards thought Hillary actually could be chosen as VP... she was trading at 5 cents or more at one point. Anyone who understands Dem politics would know she had zero chance (no interest in that role also). But their anti-Hilary/Obama/Dem paranoia comes through in their betting.
Joe Biden says the Trump administration is looking for more violence and more destruction to benefit them politically. Kamala Harris tells NBC News Craig Melvin that Americans should expect their leaders to voice even the difficult truths.
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