Fahrenthold451
Fahrenthold451's Journal10 Things to know if you have to talk yourself down
Hi Friends. It's been four years since I last posted on DU. Thanks to all of you for your insight, humor and company. Even though I was quiet, I was here all the time. I'm sure there are legions of silent admirers who are like me. So thank you all for what you do. (Except the trolls. They can f*ck off.)
So let me get to my points.
Anxiety is high. If you find yourself about to lose it, here are ten ideas to keep in mind.
1) Third party effect: At this time four years ago polls were showing Johnson support at close to 6% and he wound up getting 3% of the vote. These were the shy Trump voters. This time around there is no such scenario.
2) Let's also remember that one perhaps would be ashamed to vote for candidate "grab em by the p*ssy." Republicans now have fallen right in line and aren't self conscious anymore about this. Their BS refrain? Trump's behavior is outrageous but Biden is senile. Another reason to worry less about shyness affecting polls.
3) Dems have a consistent lead in mail return rates. Across the board Dems are returning their ballots faster than Rs. This suggests greater enthusiasm. Yeah, problems I know, but give me my silver lining.
4) Way fewer undecideds than in 2016 to late break.
5) Huge advertising and cash advantage for Biden the last 30 days to help sway these straggler undecideds
6) Dems control the firewall states. Remember that lady in Florida in 2000 with the crazy ass lipstick? Her analog in Wisconsin, Mich and Penn is a Dem.
7) Can you imagine a scenario where the election occurred after the first Covid wave? Trump's approval went way way up in March and he was the big fat hero. At least voters headed to the polls have all the information they need to know that they screwed this one up. If they don't care about legions of people dying, they were never going to vote Biden anyway. The story of this election is "It's the pandemic, stupid." And Covid response now is hugely a Biden issue.
8) Tucker Carlson humiliated himself and Barr is MIA. No Comey this year around. The October surprise was in Rudy's trousers. (I actually think Borat is the best political closing argument of all time.)
9) Live betting markets have been drip dripping every day Biden's way. The online comments from the MAGA crowd on these sites are getting increasingly deranged. It's fun to see. Check out predictit. May not mean anything but it will make you feel better.
10) In 2016 there was no flamethrower outfit like the Lincoln Project. HRC got swiftboated, let's be honest. Outfits like the Lincoln Project and RVAT have done a good job to suppress that nonsense this time around. They also have been effective counter punchers. Sorry to end this giving the Rs any credit, but I put them last in line for a reason.
So hit me your best, "Polls don't matter, Vote!" I can take it. All I'm saying is this list might make you feel a little better. Think of it as my way to say thanks to stinky the clown, your momma and the rest of y'all.
Cheers.
VOTECASTR UPDATE: NUMBERS LOOK SOLID HRC UP IN IOWA
http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election_day_turnout_tracker.html?live=trueYeah, yeah its votecastr, but I'll take it. VOTE!
499K N - 478K T IOWA
--
4,070,604 HRC -3,779,142 TRUMP FLORIDA
Dow Up, Peso Stronger, Betting Markets Show HRC Movement
There are a lot of people with money in the game who don't like volatility, which Trump represents in spades.
The CBOE volatility index VIX is down 4%.
Peso has made a .88% move stronger relative to the dollar.
The Mexican equivalent of the Dow Jones MXDOWD is up 1.87%.
Predictit "which party will win the White House" has a 4% pro dem move. Will the next president be a woman? +5 Yes.
PS. R heavy Lamar precinct in North Central Phoenix (rich white people) has no line whatsoever.
Keep voting.
HRC in Raleigh now. Explosive energy
Loud. Super energized. Crowd feeling it. Amazing.
What a way to end the campaign. Disparity between the campaigns is equivalent to the difference between major leagues and some fraternity dipnuts playing softball with a keg on second base.
I'm new to DU and just gave them money. You should too, newbies. Before you vanish into the ether..
Over the past month I've leaned hard on this website to maintain something that resembles sanity and linear thinking. It's clear to me that I have failed in preserving my mental health, but it isn't DU's fault.
I appreciate the thoughtfulness of the members here. I have learned quite a bit from all of you. I have also wasted a tremendous--galactic--amount of time.
If you are new to the site and have quietly propped yourself up here I think it's time to pay them back. I suggest you might want to throw them a "few sheckels."
Thanks amigos.
PS: For those of you who were reflexively horrified at the sheckle thing. Sorry. Here's the ironical source... http://forward.com/news/national/353286/watch-donald-trump-backer-accuses-press-of-selling-out-for-a-few-shekels/
Good Lord, Trump is a national virus...
NH GOP Ex Senator Humphrey "Trump could get us into nuclear war."
Except from article. Very Helpful In NH:
“On Tuesday, millions of lifelong Republicans will vote against Donald Trump. I’m one of them,” declared Gordon Humphrey, a former U.S. senator who served more than two decades in that chamber. He made the comments in a video released by the Democratic nominee’s campaign.
The Boston Globe described Humphrey’s vote as a “stunning development,” given the former senator’s conservative ideology and support for tea party groups. Many anti-Trump Republicans, including Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H., have said they will cast a write-in vote for a fellow conservative as an alternative to voting for either Trump or Clinton.
But Humphrey said the risk of a Trump presidency is too great to vote for anyone but Clinton.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/former-gop-senator-trump-could-get-us-into-a-nuclear-war-121502731.html?client=safari
Bill Weld Just Said This On Lawrence O....
"She's a straight shooter"
"She and I worked very closely"
"The effect of that letter was to interfere with a presidential election"
I would have told Comey, (prior to sending the letter) "don't do it"
"PS there's no there there"
Who are you hoping will win? ".....(after first bloviating about the need for a viable third party) I don't think that Trump is fit to be president with regards to stability"
I'll take it. Very forcefully anti Comey. Very forcefully pro HRC.
Edit: Sorry if the title is a bit clickbaity. That interview was different in the sense that Weld was far more definitive in his criticism of Comey. Gone was "raw deal" and present was an overall allegation of illegality (or at least radically inappropriate actions) by FBI.
Pete Williams to Chuck Todd "End of road of investigation" Todd continues to wear horrific goatee.
Email investigation completely closed. 100%
Pete Williams just said that the number of classified emails didn't change. Comey believes new info doesn't change the bottom line. Williams claiming that the new FBI letter is the ultimate conclusion. Not interim. Investigation over.
Chuck. You have a weasel on your face.
Prediction markets move net +10 in the space of 30 minutes.
PredictIt, which has given Trump every benefit of the doubt just jumped as much as I've seen. Now at 80 HRC - 20 Douchenozzle
https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/67
Polling Spanish Speakers is Hard. Obama Outperformed Polls In Latino Heavy States in '12
It's well established that pollsters are struggling with Spanish Language polling. Most polls are random dial and the preamble is in English. Non-participation by Spanish speakers is a real issue.
It should be noted here that polling the Hispanic population is still a work in progress — in large part because of language and other barriers that often exist.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/29/hillary-clinton-dominates-among-hispanics-unless-theyre-english-speaking-or-american-born/?client=safari
Also---
Higher-quality polls make efforts to reach cell-phone respondents, but many of the state polls this year have been mostly or entirely conducted via landline phone.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/latino-vote-surge-donald-trump-campaign-230804#ixzz4PF0KTiaI
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
And Nate Silver Admitted this this on 538 while doing the 2012 post mortem.
Third, there was some tendency for Mr. Obama to beat his forecasts in states where a large percentage of the population are racial minorities, but to match or underperform them in whiter states.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/21/where-obama-and-romney-beat-their-polls/
You could argue BS, because Arizona didn't do so well. Remember, however, that AZ has a super energized Mormon population. Romney was exactly their cup of tea. Romney also outperformed his polls in Utah.
Latino voters will be the story of this election. When the pollsters are calling they are hanging up. But when it's time to vote, they are voting.
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Member since: Mon Oct 17, 2016, 12:48 PMNumber of posts: 436