Fahrenthold451
Fahrenthold451's JournalUSC Daybreak Poll Deep Dive Looks Promising
Lots can be said about the USC Daybreak Poll. Nate Silver doesn't seem to be a huge fan. But that being said, the poll offers some useful info if you want to go deep. So let's go deep.
Keep in mind that USC interviews the same 5000 group of people every 14 days in a 1/14 sample per day rotation. Let's assume their initial methodology was wrong and Biden really isn't leading by +11. Who cares? It's still a great tool to show how people are changing their minds and general volatility.
First takeaway shows an insanely different story for election volatility. The 2016 USC poll was nuts--all over the place. 2020, solid as a rock. Biden leading by 11 pretty much the whole way. See for yourself.
2016 Crazy Volatility
https://dornsife-center-for-political-future.usc.edu/past-polls-collection/2016-poll/
2020 Snoozefest
https://election.usc.edu/
Obviously Access Hollywood and Comey were major players in this volatility for 2016.
For 2020, Biden picked up support after Trump's Walter Reed visit but then lost it during the brief laptop nonsense. Other than that, zip movement. We are where we started a few months ago.
Second takeaway is that because USC shows how these people actually voted, you can see hard number trends.
The internals from two weeks ago show an interesting trend for Trump abstainers. Dems were voting Biden for president, but a lot of women Republicans were voting for nobody. Independents were also sitting on the sidelines and abstaining in huge numbers. But Indies still gave Biden an advantage of around 5%.
But..... 20% + of R women who already voted in the USC did not vote for president at all. (You have to do a little extrapolation and the sample is small but it's there)
This opens the door to a very plausible scenario that I haven't read much about. Yes, Biden picks up maybe 5% better crossover voters and he does better with independents. But the real story might be this year that an unusually large number of R women voters may skip filling in a presidential bubble and not vote for president at all. This would make it all but impossible for Trump to win. It also explains his stupid-ass begging for suburban women voters on the stump.
Men (and I'm an man and I should know) continue to suck, choosing Trump by a huge margin. Ridiculous.
So the USC poll tells us that the race is not volatile. The other polling we see--especially the partisan or low quality outfits--varies because of methodology.
Trafalgar, by the way, literally changes responses from Biden to Trump. They figure that if someone answers all other questions as if they were a Trump voter but say they will vote Biden, they will change their preference back to Trump. I simplify, but literally they do this.
The Upshot? Stable race. No tightening. Biden is doing slightly better with crossover voters and Indies. Women hate Trump. R women are abstaining. And white men, (that's me) F*CKING SUCK.
10 Things to know if you have to talk yourself down
Hi Friends. It's been four years since I last posted on DU. Thanks to all of you for your insight, humor and company. Even though I was quiet, I was here all the time. I'm sure there are legions of silent admirers who are like me. So thank you all for what you do. (Except the trolls. They can f*ck off.)
So let me get to my points.
Anxiety is high. If you find yourself about to lose it, here are ten ideas to keep in mind.
1) Third party effect: At this time four years ago polls were showing Johnson support at close to 6% and he wound up getting 3% of the vote. These were the shy Trump voters. This time around there is no such scenario.
2) Let's also remember that one perhaps would be ashamed to vote for candidate "grab em by the p*ssy." Republicans now have fallen right in line and aren't self conscious anymore about this. Their BS refrain? Trump's behavior is outrageous but Biden is senile. Another reason to worry less about shyness affecting polls.
3) Dems have a consistent lead in mail return rates. Across the board Dems are returning their ballots faster than Rs. This suggests greater enthusiasm. Yeah, problems I know, but give me my silver lining.
4) Way fewer undecideds than in 2016 to late break.
5) Huge advertising and cash advantage for Biden the last 30 days to help sway these straggler undecideds
6) Dems control the firewall states. Remember that lady in Florida in 2000 with the crazy ass lipstick? Her analog in Wisconsin, Mich and Penn is a Dem.
7) Can you imagine a scenario where the election occurred after the first Covid wave? Trump's approval went way way up in March and he was the big fat hero. At least voters headed to the polls have all the information they need to know that they screwed this one up. If they don't care about legions of people dying, they were never going to vote Biden anyway. The story of this election is "It's the pandemic, stupid." And Covid response now is hugely a Biden issue.
8) Tucker Carlson humiliated himself and Barr is MIA. No Comey this year around. The October surprise was in Rudy's trousers. (I actually think Borat is the best political closing argument of all time.)
9) Live betting markets have been drip dripping every day Biden's way. The online comments from the MAGA crowd on these sites are getting increasingly deranged. It's fun to see. Check out predictit. May not mean anything but it will make you feel better.
10) In 2016 there was no flamethrower outfit like the Lincoln Project. HRC got swiftboated, let's be honest. Outfits like the Lincoln Project and RVAT have done a good job to suppress that nonsense this time around. They also have been effective counter punchers. Sorry to end this giving the Rs any credit, but I put them last in line for a reason.
So hit me your best, "Polls don't matter, Vote!" I can take it. All I'm saying is this list might make you feel a little better. Think of it as my way to say thanks to stinky the clown, your momma and the rest of y'all.
Cheers.
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