October 10, 2022

Financial Times: While Putin doubles down in Ukraine, his gas gambit is failing

https://www.ft.com/content/be331b8e-3a24-4941-b6d0-aa3041f789cf?ftcamp=traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev

"While Russia needs to sell the EU its natural gas, Europe no longer needs these supplies. Gas is becoming a buyer’s market. The energy crunch should be no threat to unified support for Ukraine, let alone Europeans’ comfort this winter, despite Putin’s machinations.

Analysis of underlying supply patterns reveals that, contrary to common belief, Europe is securing enough gas and liquefied natural gas from global markets to fully substitute for lost Russian supplies already. What is more, it can fully replace every last bit of Russian gas without any need for demand destruction or even substitution away from gas.

Since the invasion of Ukraine in February, EU sourcing of Russian gas has plummeted from 46 per cent to 9 per cent. This pivot came partially through increased piped gas from Norway and Algeria. Even more noteworthy, the dramatic increases in shipped LNG imports from the US and elsewhere have replaced the lost Russian vaporous gas from the targeted pipelines. This new supply surge to the EU now approaches, based on our calculations, 40 per cent of total global LNG supply.
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Good short article. Putin's gambit hasn't paid off at all.