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TheHak

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Member since: Thu Dec 1, 2016, 02:04 PM
Number of posts: 71

Journal Archives

opposing Trump globally

We need internal resistance and external resistance

In Europe, this year's key election will be in France, which will decide whether Le Pen (alt right), Fillon (Tatcher I kind of dont like Europe) and Macron.

Macron is pro globalization, pro innovation, sets climate change as his first priority, is very pro Europe, has empathy for the refugees (http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/749522/Merkel-saviour-Europe-left-wing-Emmanuel-Macron-France-President-immigration-Germany)

He will drive the external resistance to Trump and is starting doing so, claiming Britain is becoming the vassal of the US (https://www.rt.com/news/375320-uk-us-macron-vassal/)

We need all progressivist forces around and we can all help. His chance is real but coming without the support of a party makes it much more difficult.

real way to help is to donate (https://en-marche.fr/je-donne/). France has this particularity that anyone in the world can give (to a max. of 7500$ per person) and 10mio for a campaign. So we can make a big difference. I just donated 100$.

Would be fun to read a pouring of donations coming from the US haha

The word of the president of the USA

On 22 October 1962, President Kennedy informed de Gaulle about the Soviet attempt to put missiles in Cuba through his special emissary, former Secretary of State Dean Acheson, who flew to Paris. When Acheson entered the presidential office at the Palais díElysťe to present the photographic evidence, de Gaulle answered ďThe word of the President of the USA is enough,Ē he assured Acheson, as he dismissed the accompanying CIA technical expertís attempt to show him the intelligence. He offered Franceís support.

Which country will take the President's word as enough evidence going forward hahaha

The terrible performance of stock markets under GOP

Data from 1927 (i dont have before)

First fact, over the 8 Republican presidents (Coolidge to GWB), the total SP500 gain under them was a shocking NEGATIVE 661 points. This is largely due to the 941 point destruction market experienced under Bush Jr. But even after removing his checkered years, market would still have only been up 280 points under the Republican presidents.
Comparatively, the market advanced 2661 points under the 7 Democrats. If I remove the 941 points that Obama dug out from W, it would still be a gain of 1720 points.

More importantly, if I average the CAGRs under each president, the 8 republicans averaged only 1.29%, while the 7 Democrats averaged 4.89%.

Another critical fact to consider is the "Oh shit" meter, which kicks in when the market declines. There were four presidents that saw markets declining during their tenures. Three were republicans: Hoover (-69% over 4 years for a CAGR of -25%); Nixon (47% over 5.6 years, -11% CAGR); George W. Bush (-50% over 8 years, -8% CAGR). Democrats were represented by Carter (-14% over 4 years, -4% CAGR).


Lets see what happens under trump

There is one thing both trump and us agree on

And this is very clear from his tweets, like the one comparing his nielsons tv rating from obama s 4 years ago instead of 8.

he obviously beleives his electoral base is made in great majority of people that dont have much insights into whats going on. And on that i fully agree with him.

I'm done with the mourning, I know how I'll spend my energy in the next 3 months.

I am done with mourning, time to make a real difference again!

Because I donít want to look at my kids eye to eye and tell them: I knew about Climate Change and did nothing

Because no action will have more impact than political resolve

Because I canít think of a better way to spend my savings for the future of my children, I gave 25% of our college fund to the Clinton Super PACS and spent 2 months on the road raising assets for those PACS.

Today Iím energized again and focusing my efforts to France and to Macron because his top priorities are

1) The fight against global climate change
2) Rebuilding the French German relationship and a stronger Europe. Europe imposing a carbon tax will have a completely different outcome than if it is France alone

Climate change is not a US centric problem. Every country that steps up will increase odds that we give our children a chance.

Because a stronger Europe will p** off both Trump and Putin

Because a stronger Europe will help safeguard Americas' democratic interests

Because a stronger focus on climate change will p** off both Trump and Putin

Because Macron is a realist, understands economic constraints and world dynamics. Because he understands that with globalization and automatization all jobs cant be protected and the focus has to shift from protecting those jobs to protecting people (healthcare, training) and encourage and reward innovation.

Because the alternative is a far right candidate or a Tatcher type conservative candidate (who is pro life, against gay marriage, doesnít believe climate change is a priority and is uninterested in Europe)

Because Macron has a real chance of winning

Because Macronís biggest problem is a lack of funds (since he started with no party)

Because he only needs 6mio$ to be competitive

Because as incredible as it seems France allows funding from non French people, even those that have never lived in France (limited to 7500 euros per person)

I have energy again

For those that speak French: check out the website https://en-marche.fr to find out more info.

How long before DU is tracked by the nsa

And a record of its members is created?

Are we too nice?

I was reading about the flood of amazon negative reciews received by a clinton supporter who had accosted ivanka on a jetblue plane and this reminded me how at the height of my anger i looked into logging into my tripadvisor account and trashing the trump hotels (after all i am a very senior reviewer) but i just never did it. Just not me...

Are we just wired so that we are ill equipped when it comes to gutter fight?

And i hear people speaking about a nuclear conflict again

I never thought this would come so quickly but its true, its on many discussion topics. Unbeleivable..

For those who have miss it i can highly highly recomment barefoot gen: a cartoon story of hiroshima

I thought it was even more powerful than mouse from spiegelman and certainly more powerful than any book you can read. The autobiographic story of a young boy at the time of the bomb is unbelievavle and the amoont of suffering is incredibly touching..

Its high time to share this little jewel..

How the man without party, Macron might win the French election

Macron has not received much public attention. He is in ny opinion a pretty extraordinary candidate. He is getting monentum. His meetings are packed with 10x more people than the official right wing candidate.

He is a left wing liberal with the following programme. Worth the read in my opinion.

His assesment of the world:

Western democracies combining real freedom with capital markets have been both extraordinary places to live in but also the global drivers of growth. The balance within them however relies on a social pact (different in the us and in europe) where inequalities are handled and there is no social unrest.

Globalization is great and inevitable but it has increased inequalities as it has really benefited the 1% of the wealthiest and the emerging middle classes. The traditional middle class, the cement of our social pacts, is struggling to position itself.

As a result there will be 2 solutions: 1) the middle classes will elect government that will reject globalization, refocus on themselves, desperetaly try and retain employment at all cost (ie also at the cost of innovation) there is almost no chance it can succeed but it will happend and countries closing on themselves will necessarily be more violent vis a vis th others

The 2nd option is what he wants to bring to France:

A) recognize that the long term cycle of employment has changed. Jobs will be lost so you need to focus from protecting the jobs to protecting the people: employment contracts need to be flexible to encourage companies to be dynamics and people should have a safety net to encourage them to take risks (healthcare, etc..) and there should be a strong focus on education not only for the childrn but also for the adults to retrain them in having skills useful to an economy that is changing at a much higher speed.

B) Focus on innovation; the biggest challenge of our lifetime, climate change but also the tranformation of the global economy into a much more automated and ai centric economy means risks but also huge rewards. France has to encourage innovation and reward innovation. The country needs to attract and reatin as much talend as possible.

C) a third avenue: the traditional answer of the right to say: its a meritocracy, let the winners win will not be tenable in the light of what is happening to the middle cllass but the answer of the traditional left which is lets cap the winners will not work either. If despite the best training you cant compete with usain bolt, there is no reason to cut his ligaments. What is unacceptable i that someone as gifter as usain bolt isnt given the chance to compete because he is born in the wrong neighborhood.

And so D) the focus has to be done on education. A heavy refocus of government spend has to go back to education as a cement of our social pact and as the backbone of the focus on innovation.

E) the framework should be much liberalized: the global economy is moving too fast to have rigid rules set in place by a global governement. The government shouldnt impose its will as to how companies are organized nor how many hours each employee should work. Decision making should be less centralized to have less admin and quicker more adapted reactions. Similarly education targets should be set but the means cant be imposed as this is a function of local specificites. Teaching should be meritocratic and teaching the the most difficult neighborhoods should be paid more.

It sounds to me he is one of the most modern candidate in the political world today. Interesting for sure. He says also a lot of interesting things on europe (pro european) but thats for another time to not make this post too long.

And the next Chairman of the SEC is ...

Raj Rajaratnam

Or at least that is what I expect given the other picks at top positions.
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