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Sloumeau

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Member since: Thu Dec 1, 2016, 03:01 PM
Number of posts: 980

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Monmoth Iowa Poll Posted today: Biden 24%, Sanders 18%, Buttigieg 17%, Warren 15%

Link:

[link:https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IA_011320/|


MofE 4.9%

Biden: 24%
Sanders: 18%
Buttigieg: 17%
Warren: 15%
Klobuchar: 8%
Booker (poll taken prior to him dropping out): 4%
Steyer: 4%
Yang: 3%

Four candidates are currently vying for the top spot in next month’s Iowa caucuses – Biden (24%), Sanders (18%), Buttigieg (17%), and Warren (15%). Compared with Monmouth’s November poll, Biden has gained 5 points (up from 19%) and Sanders has gained 5 points (up from 13%), while Buttigieg has lost 5 points (down from 22%) and Warren has declined by 3 points (down from 18%). Klobuchar is knocking on the door of the top tier with 8% support in the current poll (up from 5% in November).

Most of the demographic shifts since November are within the poll’s margin of error, but there was a particularly notable swing among voters age 65 and older away from Buttigieg (11% now, 26% in November) and toward Biden (44% now, 29% in November). Klobuchar has also gained support among these older voters (13% now, 5% in November).

“A plurality of older voters line up behind Biden, but others in that age group seem to be looking for a fresher face. They appear to be split between Buttigieg and Klobuchar right now,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Other candidates register single digit support among likely caucusgoers, including New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker (4%), former hedge fund manager Tom Steyer (4%), entrepreneur Andrew Yang (3%), and Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (2%). Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, former Maryland Rep. John Delaney, and former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick earn less than 1% support. [Note: Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg was not included in the poll because he has indicated he will not participate in the Iowa caucus process.] [With supporters of Booker – who dropped out after the poll was conducted – assigned to their second choice, the race stands at Biden 25%, Sanders 18%, Buttigieg 17%, Warren 16%, and Klobuchar 9%.]


Woohoo!

Sing it with me now!

Biden's in front!
Biden's in front!
Biden's in front!
Biden's in front!

Now all of you green guys bounce now!

Complete List Of All 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Candidates

We are now, in a way, at the halfway point of the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary. Of the 28 candidates who announced their intention to run for Democratic Presidential Nomination, 14 of them have now dropped out. Note that while Marianne Williamson has not technically dropped out yet, I have read that she has fired all of her staff.

This primary may seem like it is going on forever, but a lot has actually happened. If your candidate is still alive and kicking, congratulations. Your candidate has already outlasted half of the field. If your preferred candidate did not make it this far, I am sorry. Maybe he or she will do better next time. If you have not already, see if you can still find someone else to back. Remember, Vote Blue...no matter who!


Joe Biden.................Active
Bernie Sanders.........Active
Elizabeth Warren.......Active
Pete Buttigieg...........Active
Amy Klobuchar..........Active
Andrew Yang.............Active
Michael Bloomberg.....Active
Tulsi Gabbard.............Active
Cory Booker................Active
Tom Steyer..................Active
Michael Bennet.............Active
John Delaney................Active
Marianne Williamson......Active
Deval Patrick.................Active
Julian Castro.................Dropped
Kamala Harris...............Dropped
Steve Bullock...............Dropped
Joe Sestak..................Dropped
Wayne Messam...........Dropped
Beto O'Rourke............Dropped
Tim Ryan..................Dropped
Bill de Blasio.............Dropped
Kirsten Gillibrand......Dropped
Seth Moulton...........Dropped
Jay Inslee...............Dropped
John Hickenlooper...Dropped
Mike Gravel...........Dropped
Eric Swalwell.........Dropped

The 'But I Would Vote for Joe Biden' Republicans

By Katie Glueck Dec. 25, 2019

NYTimes.com Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/25/us/politics/joe-biden-2020-republicans.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

...
Some Democrats have been warning the party not to obsess over these potential swing voters, arguing that electability calculations about mythical undecided moderates are futile at this moment of extreme political polarization.

But for many Biden supporters, those voters are their Republican-leaning relatives and friends. And their perspectives are an increasingly prominent consideration as the Iowa caucuses near.

“I think he could get the independents and moderate Republicans who refuse to vote for Donald Trump,” said Bailey Smith, 27, a leader in Atlantic, Iowa’s business community and an undecided voter who attended a Biden campaign event on Sunday. Asked whether she had any moderate Republicans in mind, she replied, “My dad.”

It’s a dynamic that helps explain why, despite Mr. Biden’s series of missteps and uneven debate performances, many Democratic voters still believe the former vice president would stand the best chance against President Trump in a general election, polls show.
...


By the way, more than 90% of the time in Presidential elections, whoever wins the majority of Independent voters, wins the election. That's because Democrats tend to vote for Democrats, and Republicans tend to vote for Republicans. It's the Independents that tend to do the most swinging. They are currently the largest single voting block, followed by Democrats, and last of all Republicans.

All Biden Fans Should Consider Reading This DU Posting from Andrew Yang fan And DU Member Recursion

The name of recursion's DU posting is, "A really good Twitter thread explaining how stupid the fundraising fight is"

Here is the link: https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287392558

In the posting, DU member recursion posts a twitter tweet from a twitter member named Old Lady Dem. Double click on the text of the twitter message and read her entire tweetstorm. It is Jaw Droppingly Good.

Biden narrowly ahead in Iowa as Sanders surges, Warren drops: poll

( https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/474016-biden-narrowly-ahead-in-iowa-poll-as-sanders-surges-warren-drops )

By Tal Axelrod - 12/10/19 09:54 PM EST

Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) are leading the 2020 Democratic primary field in the crucial caucus state of Iowa as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) sinks, according to a Emerson College poll released Tuesday.

Biden and Sanders are neck-and-neck at the top of the survey, garnering the support of 23 percent and 22 percent of Democratic caucus-goers, respectively. South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg comes in third at 18 percent and Warren sits at fourth with 12 percent.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) comes in fifth place in the poll at 10 percent, while no other candidate breaks double digits.

...


Woohoo! Biden is now ahead in Iowa! It looks like that No Malarkey tour of rural Iowa may have helped a bunch!

Andrew Yang Qualifies for December Debate

( https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/10/andrew-yang-qualify-debate-deadline-080098 )

Andrew Yang qualifies for PBS NewsHour POLITICO debate

By ZACH MONTELLARO

Updated: 12/10/2019 05:02 PM EST

Andrew Yang has qualified for the December Democratic primary debate just days before this week's deadline, joining six other candidates on the stage.

Yang received 4 percent support in a national Quinnipiac University poll released on Tuesday, one of the two qualifying polls to be released after a nearly two-week drought.

Yang had come tantalizingly close to qualifying before — hitting 3 percent in 12 of the 26 December qualifying polls released so far, including a Monmouth University national poll released earlier in the day.

Some Of The Ways That Joe Biden Will Beat Donald Trump

In politics, there's the truth, there's what people believe, there's what people want to hear politicians say, and then there are those things that the politicians actually do say. Those four things are often not the same things at all, and it is often hard to keep those four things straight. This is just one of the reasons why politics can be so complicated. Let us start by first focusing on some of the things that politicians say.

What Politicians Actually Do Say

Currently, we have the modern version of the evil boy king in the White House. This petulant child, Donald Trump, had Republican voters fall in love with him for actually repeating all of the hateful things that they had been hearing on Fox News and Right-Wing radio for decades. "At last," they thought, "a politician who talks like Rush Limbaugh does--and he does it all of the time!". Now, while Donald Trump is different from the previous Republican presidents of the last seventy or so years because he spouts his hateful rhetoric on a regular basis, his policies really are not that different from the policies of previous Republican Presidents.

I know it may sound crazy to say that Donald Trump's policies are not that different from the Republicans that came before him, but hear me out for a moment. Lots of poor people were dying from lack of health care, from lack of proper wages, from lack of proper retirement benefits, and from being shut out of this country due to immigration policies long before Trump became President. The key difference between Trump and the evil Republican slime-balls before him is that Donald Trump insults people all the time. If you are not part of his base, he's probably getting an insult ready for you. With Trump, you are either for him or you are against him, so he's always got plenty of people in his mental doghouse, and he's always getting more insults ready like a kid in a snowstorm who is constantly rolling up snowballs.

It is true that Republicans really do love how he insults those people who do not agree with him. Do you know who is actually not fond of that? Democrats, as well as the majority of Independent voters (the ones who do not lean Conservative), are not fond of that at all. This is one of the reasons why Donald Trump's approval for almost three years has averaged around 42%--because most Americans do not like how he goes about his business. They do not like the constant insults and constant put-downs. They think that it makes him look like a clown--and not presidential at all.

What I Think Most People Believe

Now, we Democrats don't usually fight our battles the way that Trump does. Our last Democratic President. Barack Obama was originally a community organizer who focused on getting groups to work together. Barack Obama was a truly nice guy with a huge heart who really cared about people and sought to find consensus on the Congressional bills that he supported. The Democratic President before him, Bill Clinton, focused on what some called "triangulation", or finding the center between what the Democrats wanted and what the Republicans wanted, so that he could try to work out compromises. The Democratic President before him, Jimmy Carter, a man so nice that he is still building houses for the poor when most others would have just taken to a rocking chair, won his 1976 Election partly by showing America that he was a businessman, a religious family man, and a former officer in the Navy--all of which tend to be things that Republicans generally love. None of them, Obama, Clinton, or Carter, believed that insulting the opposition was the way to go.

Do you know who else really does not really believe in politicians insulting people all of the time? Members of America's largest political party--the Independent Party--don't generally believe in that either. Do you know why there are more Independents in this country than either Democrats or Republicans? It is because there is a really big chunk of voters who think that neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have cornered the market on good ideas. If these people truly thought that the Republicans had all of the good ideas, then they would *be* Republicans, and if they thought the Democrats had all of the right ideas, they would *be* Democrats. However, a lot of Independents believe that America needs more than one political party, that no one party has cornered the market on good ideas, and that countries that only have one real political party tend to look like the following countries, per Wikipedia ( https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-party_state#Examples ):

As of April 2015, there are 10 states that are ruled by a single party:

--China (Communist party, 8 registered minor parties)
--Democratic People's Republic of Korea (AKA- North Korea) (Korean Workers' Party) - 2 minor parties that exist on paper only
--Vietnam (Communist party)
--Cuba (Communist party)
--Eritrea
--Western Sahara
--Burma (the opposition parties are prevented from taking office)
--Laos (Communist party)
--Syria (Ba'ath Party)
--Turkmenistan

Those countries all have essentially one political party, and politics in those countries is truly awful. This is one of the reasons why there are so many Independents in this country, and it is also why most television newscasts, newspapers, and news magazines tend to show more than one side to a story. It is because there are a lot of voters, and a lot of journalists, who believe that there is usually more than one side to a story, and that it is critical that more than one side of the story be heard. You see, in countries that only have one political party, that party usually looks a lot more like the modern Republican party than it looks like the modern Democratic party. In one-party states, that party is usually controlled by the richest and the most powerful, and to me, that sounds a lot more like the modern Republican party than it does the modern Democratic party.

So, when Joe Biden says we need there to be a Republican party, he's not ignorant to all of the evil that the Republicans have done. Being in national politics as long as he has, few understand their evil better than he does. When he says we need there to be a Republican party, it is because he understands from looking at the world as it is now, and from how one-party states have operated in the world for the past 100 years, that if a nation only has one party, odds are that one party will look a heck of a lot more like the current Republican party than the current Democratic party--and the one thing Joe Biden does not want is to have the United States ruled by one party that looks like the Republican party.

I believe that Joe Biden will win the Democratic Nomination. Furthermore, I believe that Joe Biden is going to win the next Presidential General Election because he is going to do it by not constantly insulting the other side. The reason that when Joe Biden called a voter a liar a few days ago made the news was that he almost never does that. When Joe Biden did that thing that he rarely does, show just how angry people going after his son sometimes makes him, some of the Democrats who want another candidate to get the Democratic nomination said, "Oh, he should be more cool like Obama was". Some of these same people, when Joe Biden actually indicated that he thought that he could get bills passed by working with Republicans, the same thing that all of our previous Democratic Presidents thought, said things like, "Oh, Joe Biden is crazy! We can't work with Republicans! All they do is obstruct! Joe Biden is living in the past!". Some of these same Democrats, who support other Democratic candidates for the Presidential nomination, also tend to say things like, "Oh, look how delusional Joe Biden is for thinking that America needs the Republican party!".

Despite the ridiculous obstruction of the Republican Party, Joe Biden knows that he can get things done as President. He knows that, as President, he will be able to veto any bill put on his desk, and he knows that there is no way that the Republicans will end up with a two-thirds majority in both the House and the Senate. This means that they will be forced to work compromises with him, and no other Democratic candidate has had more experience at getting bills through Congress than Joe Biden has. Biden also knows, for the reasons mentioned above, that no matter how awful the Republican party is, America only having one political party would be even worse because odds are it would look a lot more like the Republican Party than the Democratic Party.

What I Believe That Most People Want To Hear Politicians Say

As for why Joe Biden will win against Donald Trump, he is going to win against Trump because he is going to win a lot of votes from the middle, meaning the Independent voters, in addition to winning a lot of Democratic voters. So, what exactly is the reason that Joe Biden is going to win the middle? It's because the middle is sick and tired of what they refer to as all of the "bickering and fighting" that is happening in Congress. A lot of people in the middle always seem to think that both sides are responsible for America's problems, no matter how evil Republicans get.

So, Joe Biden will do what worked for Carter, Clinton, Obama, and a lot of other previous Democratic Presidents. He will focus on emphasizing that he believes that he can work with the Republicans, just as previous Democrats have done. He will focus on the issues and on what needs to be done more, and he will focus on insulting the opposition less. He will walk in the same path of Carter, Clinton, and Obama, as they walked the same path of FDR, Truman, JFK, and Johnson. He will emphasize working together for the common good of America, and he will look for the things that Democrats and Republicans have in common.

What I Believe To Be The Truth

In this way, Joe Biden will win the majority of Independents in addition to winning a majority of Democrats in November of 2020, and he will consign Donald Trump to the ash-bin of history. Soon, we will no longer be living in Trump's world. Just as 9/11 faded into the past, Donald Trump will soon be just a really bad memory that most of the nation will be trying to overcome. Joe Biden will get us there not though endless crass insults, but instead by focusing on common goals and working together. So, you fellow Democrats who think that Joe Biden is nuts because he thinks he can work with Republicans and think he is nuts because he believes that America needs more than one political party, you keep expressing your opinions. That is, after all, what America is all about--people having more than one viewpoint--and we Joe Biden supporters, like Joe Biden himself, believe in more than one viewpoint, as well as believing in more than one political party in order to express that viewpoint.

As for Joe, he will keep being at the top of the national polls, he will wrap up the nomination this summer, and he will win next November. In the end, after his administration is over, and many Democrats start to realize that Joe Biden was actually right all along, odds are that he will not even say, "I told you so" even once. You see, Joe Biden believes in being polite as much as he can. Just don't go after his family to his face.

A Lot Of Us Biden Fans Have Long Wanted Harris As His VP For Some Very Good Reasons

Over these past months of the 2020 Democratic Presidential Campaign, a number of Biden fans, including me, have indicated repeatedly that we think Senator Kamala Harris would make a great VP for Joe Biden. We haven't suggested this because we don't think that Senator Harris was good enough to be President or deserving enough to be President. In fact, the exact opposite is true. Many of us Biden fans would have strongly considered Senator Harris as our first pick if Joe Biden was not in the race. Please let me explain all of the reasons why so many Biden fans have wanted, and still want, to see Kamala Harris as Joe Biden's VP:

1. We think that she is the total package: smart, well educated, and incredibly hard-working. We think she's a winner and we want a winner on our team.

2. She's a person of color and a woman, and we really want to help elevate both people of color and women.

3. We think that Kamala Harris on the ticket will help bring unity to the Democratic Party. We figure if Joe Biden shows that he very much wants Senator Harris on the ticket, even after she was a bit tough on him in that first debate, it will show everyone that Joe doesn't hold grudges and that he wants to include all Democrats in his strategy.

4. There's another reason that many of us Biden fans would like to see Senator Kamala Harris as Joe Biden's VP pick. We noticed the terrible racism and sexism that happened in the 2016 campaign, and we think that the intersectionality of Senator Kamala Harris being both a woman and person of color might under normal circumstances make her run for President if she were the nominee tougher than it might be for either a white woman or a man of color. However, we also know that about a third of Vice Presidents go on to become President, and a lot of that has to do with their increased stature and national recognition from being Vice President. Many of us believe that a Kamala Harris Vice Presidency may simply be the quickest way to get an African American woman to become President.

5. We think that a Joe Biden/Kamala Harris ticket would crush Donald Trump. Biden has shown repeatedly in polls that he's the one most likely to beat Donald Trump. He'll give us the Democratic votes, the Independent votes, and the Rust Belt votes we need. In addition, Kamala Harris should help us to get votes from men, women, and people of all colors nationwide. Together, their ticket is diverse and probably gives the Democrats the best chance of kicking the Orange Menace out of the White House--and we Biden fans want that very, very much.

So, to summarize, we Biden fans have not been saying that we want Senator Kamala Harris to be Joe Biden's VP because we think so little of her. We want her to be Joe Biden's VP because we think so much of her and because we think very much that she can greatly help us to win. Because we like Joe Biden so much, we see him as our Michael Jordan. We feel that we also need our Scottie Pippen, someone who is a great star in their own right, in order for the Democrats to maximize their potential for winning in November 2020.

For many of us Joe Biden fans, we hope very much that Joe Biden wins the nomination, that he asks Senator Kamala Harris to be his VP, and that she accepts. We don't want Joe to offer her a consolation prize. We want Joe to offer her a ticket to the White House and to greatly improve her chances of getting there on her own someday. We aren't just trying to look out for White America or male America. We are trying to look out for all of America. Happy Holidays everyone, and may whoever wins the nomination beat Trump like a drum!

SurveyUSA: Biden over Trump 52% to 39% 11/20-11/21

Link:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5128ee79-1b59-4146-bf80-54906bb24d4b

Overview of the survey:
6 High-Profile Democrats All Defeat Dented Donald Trump in General Election 'Today'

* Joe Biden defeats Trump today by 13 points, 52% to 39%, Biden's largest lead. Trump falls below 40% for the first time.
* Bernie Sanders defeats Trump today by 12 points, 52% to 40%. Trump's 40% vs Sanders is a new low, Sanders' 52% is a new high.
* Elizabeth Warren defeats Trump today by 7 points, 49% to 42%. Warren's 49% is a new high, Trump's 42% vs Warren is a new low.
* Pete Buttigieg defeats Trump today by 7 points, 48% to 41%. Trump led in August.
* Michael Bloomberg defeats Trump today by 6 points, 46% to 40%. This is the first SurveyUSA poll to pair the two.
* Kamala Harris defeats Trump today by 5 points, 47% to 42%. Trump and Harris tied in September; 42% is a new low.

* Among Protestants, Trump had led Biden by 17, now 4.
* Among voters "able to save for a rainy day," Trump had led Biden by 10, now trails by 2.
* Among white middle-class voters, Trump had led Biden by 12, now 3.
* Among upper-income voters, Trump has never trailed Biden, but today is down by 7.
* Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they are "making ends meet," Biden once led by 6, now leads by 15.
* In the Midwest, Biden once led Trump by 3, now leads Trump by 14.

* Among white middle-class voters, Trump had led Buttigieg by 19, now 5.
* Among seniors, Trump had led Buttigieg by 3, now trails by 7.
* Among voters "able to save for a rainy day," Trump had led Buttigieg by 18, now 2.
* Among voters who attend religious services regularly, Trump had led Buttigieg by 28, now 13.
* Among Protestants, Trump had led Buttigieg by 23, now by 7.
* Among voters with no strong feelings either way about abortion, Trump had led Buttigieg by 7, now trails by 8.
* Among whites, Trump had led Buttigieg by 16, now 5.
* Among suburban men, Trump had led Buttigieg by 18, now 4.

If Mike Pence were at the top of the GOP ticket today, Pence does better than Trump against Buttigieg and Bloomberg, runs even with Trump against Warren, and does worse than Trump against Biden, Sanders, and Harris.

Lots of people are thinking about Iowa and New Hampshire.

What is interesting is, Joe Biden is just not that worried about Iowa and New Hampshire. Why Is That?

First of all, he knows that he could lose both Iowa and New Hampshire and still win the Democratic Nomination. How does he know this? Well, let's look at a little graphic chart from an NPR.org article entitled, "How Predictive Are Iowa And New Hampshire?":

https://www.npr.org/2016/01/31/465016222/how-predictive-are-iowa-and-new-hampshire

Here's the graphic chart from that article:

https://ibb.co/JqB9cT6

From the blue section of the chart, where the Democrats are, one can see that in 1992 Bill Clinton won neither Iowa or New Hampshire, but Bill Clinton did go on to win the Democratic Presidential Nomination.

So, how did Bill Clinton end up winning the Democratic Nomination? Bill Clinton did it the same way Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama did it. They all won the South. You see, Democratic Candidates who are strong in the South are basically strong for one reason--they have strong support among African Americans. African Americans, being just as smart as Caucasians, look for a candidate who has a track record of looking out for them. They are powerful enough in the Democratic Party to pick winners and losers, and they are hard-working and dedicated enough to make sure that he or she rises to the top.

Joe Biden has been averaging polling in first place nationally for a long time, as one can see from the RealClearPolitics.com 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination page here:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

However, Biden has not been at the top of the polls in Iowa or New Hampshire lately. Why is that? It's because a lot of his support is in other parts of the country, like the South.

Some candidates are pretty strong with Caucasians but don't do so well with African Americans. Some of them will do well in Iowa or New Hampshire. However, some of those same people may not do so well in the South. If things continue as they have been in the past, the person who wins the South will win the nomination. I'm betting that that person will be Joe Biden, and I'm betting that he will win the Democratic Nomination even if he loses both Iowa and New Hampshire. I've got my fingers crossed.
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