I just saw this for the first time ten minutes ago. It is easy to watch, easy to understand, and it buries Trump.

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1241416531684331526

There is an interesting posting by DU's own Celerity entitled "Iowa Was Meaningless" which one can read here:

[link:https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287701972|]

The full title of this NYTimes piece is:

Iowa Was Meaningless
We spent a lot of time covering the candidates’ ups and downs in Iowa. Almost none of it mattered.

This article was written by Reid J. Epstein. Yes, a whole lot of reporters, talking heads, and analysts, such as the people at fivethirtyeight.com all thought that Iowa was so damn important. Do you know who never thought it was so damn important? Joe Biden's campaign did not think it was so important, and neither did I.

During the year 2019, people like Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Senator Bernie Sanders, and Senator Elizabeth Warren all spent a huge amount of time in Iowa, and they all spent a lot of money building up a big organization. Joe Biden did not. Joe Biden kept saying that South Carolina was his firewall. Some people noticed that he was strong with African Americans--but they also kept saying how important Iowa and New Hampshire was. In January 2020, Team 538 was saying that if Joe Biden could just win Iowa, he'd have an 80% chance to win the nomination. They also said if someone else won Iowa, they would be the most likely to win the nomination. So, most of the talking heads were focused on Iowa.

So, why was Joe Biden so focused on South Carolina, and not Iowa? Sure, Biden ended up doing a bus tour of Iowa, but only about a month before the election, and only because people started screaming at him that if he did not win Iowa he would have no chance. The key is that Biden knew what Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama knew. You remember those guys--the last three Democrats to win the Presidency. These guys knew it was not so much about Iowa--it was more about the South. How did these guys know that? Because they each studied what had happened in previous Democratic Presidential Primaries, and they each built their campaigns around the South. Barack Obama, for example, noticed that Carter swept the South and then got the nomination. He also noticed that Bill Clinton did the same thing. When Joe Biden joined Team Obama in 2008, do you think that someone on Obama's team might have clued Biden in on how Obama won the nomination in 2008? I bet someone did.

At this point, I am going to plagiarize myself, and post what I posted here on this site January 10th, about 3 weeks before Iowa--when so many reporters were so obsessed with Iowa. (you can see the original comment here [link:https://upload.democraticunderground.com/1287416957#post13|] :

It isn't really about Just Iowa and New Hampshire. The South is huge.

If a Democrat wins Iowa and/or New Hampshire, but does not do really well in the South, he often loses in the general election. That's because in order to do really well in the South, you have to have the Black vote. When Democrats do not have a strong enough support in the South, they often lose the election.

Carter and Clinton were both Southerners who killed in the South, and they both won in the General Election. Clinton didn't win either Iowa or New Hampshire, but that did not matter--he still won the nomation because of his big support in the South. Obama wasn't from the South, but he was Black, so he killed in the South too.

Do you know the last time the Democrats won a General Election with a liberal from New England? It was JFK in 1960, and that was before the Voting Rights Act was passed. After that happened, the racist White Democratic Dixiecrats fled the Democratic Party and became Republicans. Because of that, Nixon invoked his "Southern Strategy" in 1968 and the Republicans have been invoking it ever since. If the Democrats end up putting forth a nominee who is not really strong in the South, there is a good chance that that nominee will lose in the general. Fortunately, Biden is leading the polls nationwide and is very strong in the South.

In 1984, Walter Mondale won the nomination, but the only Southern state that he won in the primary was Florida. Most of the other Southern states were won by Gary Hart, with a few also being won by Jesse Jackson. Mondale got creamed in the General Election.

In 1988, Michael Dukakis only won Texas and Florida in the Primary. The other Southern states were won by Al Gore and Jesse Jackson. Dukakis lost in the General as well.

People are worrying a lot this year about exciting the youth vote when historically, exciting the black vote has been much more important. Hillary won a lot of the Southern States, but she still didn't get enough of the Black Vote--whether that was from voter suppression, or Russian dirty tricks, or whatever.

Do you know why Biden's strongest supporters are older Americans? Because a lot of us have watched all of these Presidential races, and we know what happened to folks like Michael Dukakis. The last thing we want to run is a White very Liberal guy from New England. We have been there, done that. At least Elizabeth Warren is a woman, and that could help balance things out. But a white very liberal guy from New England who is not really strong with Black support? To many of us Biden supporters, it is electoral suicide.

"OK, sloumeau", you may be saying to yourself, "that's just one comment. How do we really know that you were sure that this was going to work?" Here's a comment from me 3 days later, on January 13: [link:https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287420082#post3|]

Fivethirtyeight.com covers this.

If someone goes to the following link...

[link:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/iowa/|

Fivethiryeight.com talks about how winning Iowa raises or lowers the odds of winning the nomination.

Basically, they say that winning Iowa means the person has an 80% chance of winning the nomination. Why can't they say 100%? Because of people like Bill Clinton who did not win either Iowa or New Hamshire but still won the nomination. How did he do it? Well, Bill Clinton was from the South, and he swept the South. This means, even if you don't win Iowa or New Hampshire, you can still win if you do well in the South. Anyone doing strong in the South? Oh, you, Joe Biden? OK, so even if Joe Biden doesn't win Iowa and New Hampshire he can still win by doing well in the South.

"OK, sloumeau", you might be saying to yourself, "maybe you just got lucky there. I am still not sure that you knew Biden could win by sweeping the South and did not have to win Iowa and New Hamsphire to win". OK, here's another comment I made from that same posting:

The following link should help you with that.

Check out this link:

[link:https://www.npr.org/2016/01/31/465016222/how-predictive-are-iowa-and-new-hampshire|

It shows who won Iowa and New Hampshire, both Democrats and Republicans since 1976. The winners are shown in two, easy to read images.

Notice that the following people won both Iowa and New Hampshire since 1976 and they all went on to win the nomination. Fifty percent of the time, they also went on to win the General Election:

1976: Carter won both--Got Nomination--Won General
1980: Carter won both--Got Nomination--Lost General
1996: Clinton won both--Got Nomination--Won General
2000: Gore won both--Got Nomination--Lost General
2004: Kerry won both--Got Nomination--Lost General
2012: Obama won both--Got Nomination--Won General

The following people won either Iowa or New Hampshire and then got the nomination. One out of three times, they went on to win the General Election:

1984: Mondale won in Iowa--Got Nomination--Lost General
1988: Dukakis won in 1988--Got Nomination--Lost General
2008: Obama won in Iowa--Got Nomination--Won General

Since 1976, the following people won neither Iowa or New Hampshire but still went on to win the Nomination and the General Election:

1992: Bill Clinton lost both--Got Nomination--Won General


So, what does that tell me? Based on the past, if anyone wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, their odds of winning the Nomination are quite good. If, however, two different people win Iowa and New Hampshire, The odds of one of those two people *combined* winning the nomination is probably in about the 75% to 80% range. This means that each of the two winners' individual chances of winning the nomination might be around 40%.

Here's where it gets tricky. If those two winners are facing someone who is strong in the South, like Joe Biden is, and if that person sweeps the South, that person can override their two wins. Just as Bill Clinton was the Southern exception in 1992, Joe Biden could be the Southern exception in 2020. It means that if Joe Biden does not win Iowa or New Hamshire, he still has a shot at winning, albeit maybe about a 20% chance of winning. However, if he does really well in the South, as could happen, he could very well do it.

Here is me again on January 28: [link:https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287452636#post4|]

4. If Bernie fails to do well in Iowa and NH, he is toast.

Bernie still has a steep climb ahead.

1. Biden might sweep the South as Hillary did.

2. There are 11 closed primaries. Since a lot of Bernie's support seems to come from non-Democrats, he tends to do worse in closed primaries. In 2016, Sanders lost every closed primary.

So, did anyone else here at DU realize this? Scurrilous knew: [link:https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287490459#post110|]

How did NH propel Clinton?


He didn't win a primary until Georgia, number 6. That was a slow propel. In fact his percentage went down the next two primaries. He won GA because he swept the south. Like Biden is going to do.

And you're forgetting '72 McGovern. Muskie won Iowa and NH.


Gotta go. I'll be back in AM.

Scurrilous said that on February 9, 2020--after Iowa. He knew that Iowa was not essential--even after Biden came in what...fourth in Iowa?

So, next time people say, "Nobody could have predicted what happened with Biden", remember that Biden and his team knew, I knew, and Scurrilous knew. In fact, Probably a whole lot of other people on Team Biden here at DU knew. So, next time the pundits want to know the scoop, they should just pay DU a visit. We know the score because we do our homework.

At this time, I would like to thank by name just some of the dedicated Team Biden DU members who kept the faith. My thanks include, but are not at all limited to, the following DU members:

UniteFightBack
WheelWalker
Whetton
ucrdem
DownriverDem
highplainsdem
Auggie
Sugarcoated
Indykatie
still_one
George II
reACTIONary
getagrip_already
OKNancy
Peacetrain
PatSeg
MRDAWG
wisteria
NBachers
blue-wave
Duppers
karin_sj
emmaverybo
peggysue2
madamesilverspurs
handmade34
William769
Smackdown2019
Happyhippychick
LakeArenal
Gothmog
IronLionZion
Beaverhausen
Talitha
pnwmom
Drunken Irishman
Hekate
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin
asiliveandbreathe
Skya
sheshe
trueblue2007
MineralMan
The Magistrate
R B Garr
Demsrule86
Ohiogal
PourMeADrink
ALBliberal
nolabear
Green Line
redstatebluegirl
redstateblues
Just_Vote_Dem
spooky3
NurseJackie
Uncle Noel
spicysista
Dave in VA
Iamaartist & hubby
GulfCoast66
Scurrilous
Pnwmom

and of course, Cha!

Mahalo to Cha, and to all of the Team Biden members! We are going to beat Trump like a drum! Woohoo!

I want to thank all of the wonderful Joe Biden supporters, both the long time supporters and the ones who are not so long time supporters.

To the long time Joe Biden supporters:

Thank you so much for never losing faith, and thank you also for all of your hard work. You people are awesome.

For the newer Joe Biden supporters:

Thank you so much for joining the Joe Biden Team. I know that many of you initially supported other candidates and had to deal with the pain of them dropping out. I know that this can hurt a lot. I have seen some of my candidates fall by the wayside in the past, so I understand what it feels like. I believe that every Democrat who ran for President this year is at least 100 times better than Donald Trump. We had a lot of truly great field of candidates, and because there were so many good candidates, a lot of great candidates were not going to make it. It is unfortunate that no matter what, so many great candidates had to lose.

I always unify behind whoever wins the nomination, and I will do so again this year. With Donald Trump in the White House, and with his stupid inaction literally causing people to get sick and die, it is more important than ever to unify behind one candidate.

We can all be glad that the person we will be uniting behind worked his butt off to help Barack Obama succeed and will know what to do in the White House from day one. He is also someone who has spent his entire life serving his constituents and the Democratic Party. He was also the guy who on January 27 was warning the world that the Coronavirus was a big threat and that Donald Trump's attitude of ignoring it was totally wrong. Joe Biden was taking COVID-19 seriously months before Trump did, and he would have done everything to prevent it from spreading and to make sure our medical people had what they needed back in January.

To the Bernie Sanders Supporters:

I would love to see something resembling every one of his policies eventually enacted. One of his policies in particular, kissing Free Trade goodbye, is near and dear to my heart. I believe that this one issue alone can greatly move the Progressive agenda forward, and I will be pushing for Joe Biden to adopt this issue. I also hope that in the long run, we Democrats can eventually achieve pretty much everything that Senator Bernie Sanders was running on. Bernie Sanders supporters fought long and hard for a guy who really wants the best for people. Every Sanders supporter has something to be truly proud of, because on his worst day, Bernie Sanders is 1000 times better than Donald Trump, and if he had won the nomination, I would have vigorously pulled the lever for him in November.

Let's all try to remember that all of Bernie Sanders' goals were good goals, even if some of us disagreed on the best way to achieve his goals. Right now, let us consider focusing on keeping the eyes on the prize, and to my fellow Biden supporters, please consider burying the hatchet with me by possibly saying nice things about Bernie Sanders and his supporters. I believe this is important, and I believe that each of you can do this. Bernie Sanders and his supporters really do want a better America, they fight really hard for what they want, and best of all, most of them are die-hard Progressives, which makes them 1000 times better than Conservatives.

These are just my opinions. Ignore them if you need to do so.

Alexandra Tara Reade’s accusations of sexual assault against Joe Biden appear very questionable once the story is fully investigated.

(This is a really long article, but it shows a number of things that indicate that her claim may be pretty shaky.
To go to the link, cut and paste the entire line below--the link command is not working right)

https://medium.com/@eddiekrassenstein/evidence-casts-doubt-on-tara-reades-sexual-assault-allegations-of-joe-biden-e4cb3ee38460

UPDATE 4/2/20: We were able to contact a longtime friend of Reade’s who wished to remain anonymous, but they said they “do not believe her allegations,” claiming she has always been one to seek attention. Note: We reached out to Ms. Reade for comment but she refused.

Every allegation of sexual assault must be taken seriously, and the #metoo movement has certainly given the victims of sexual harassment and assault a greater shield of confidence in coming forward with less fear of being attacked themselves. With this said, however, it is the media’s responsibility to thoroughly investigate accusations before jumping into a story and allowing those allegations to potentially destroy another human being, or, in this case, a political campaign. Every woman deserves to be heard, but every media outlet still has the responsibility of investigating and then relaying to the public all of the facts at face value.

Alexandra Tara Reade came forward last week with quite disturbing allegations against former Vice President and current 2020 Presidential candidate Joe Biden. In April of 2019, Reade originally said that Joe Biden’s handsiness made her feel uncomfortable when she worked as a Senate aide in 1993. At the time, however, she said that she did not consider Biden’s actions to be sexualization, instead comparing her experience to that of being a beautiful lamp.

This story suddenly changed last week when Reade took part in an interview with podcast host Katie Halper. In the interview, Reade claimed that then-Senator Joe Biden “penetrated” her, against her will, with his finger, in an encounter that took place in ‘93.

While the allegations made by Reade are impossible to prove or disprove, examining Reade’s actions over the years and other evidence that has been archived on the internet, brings her honesty and integrity into question.

Below we will cover many of the inconsistencies in her story, the endless contradictions she has made over the years, and the evidence that paints a picture of someone who went from seemingly adoring Joe Biden and disliking Vladimir Putin in 2017, to someone who showed compassion and love for Vladimir Putin in 2018, to someone who accused Biden of doing horrific things to her in 2019 and 2020.
Who is Alexandra Tara Reade?

Alexandra Tara Reade has gone by many names and aliases over the years. According to our research, she was born as Tara Reade Moulton, before changing her name in her early 20s to Tara Reade, then changing it back to Tara Moulton again, and then changing it once again later in life (through marriage) to Alexandra Tara McCabe.

It appears as though sometime between 2017 and early 2018 she began calling herself Alexandra Tara Reade.

According to a website that she recently deleted, Reade is the founder of Gracie’s Pet Food Pantry, graduated from Seattle University School of Law, and was the co-host, creator and producer of a soul music radio show called “Soul Vibes” on KNRY — an AM radio station that serves the Santa Cruz and Monterey areas in California.

At one point in her life Reade worked on the domestic violence unit for the King County Prosecutor, in Seattle, WA, as a ‘Victim’s Advocate,” and on at least one occasion testified as an expert witness on domestic violence.

Reade also worked for former Congressman Leon Panetta, former Senator Joe Biden, and former California State Senator Jack O’Connell.
In 2017 Alexandra Tara Reade Praised Joe Biden for Helping End Sexual Assault.

In 2017 Alexandra Tara Reade praised Joe Biden for his action in helping stop sexual assault, not just once, but on multiple occasions.
...

There is a lot more after the part that I quoted.

[link:https://www.mediaite.com/news/new-polls-trump-approval-craters-as-abc-and-rasmussen-now-show-him-underwater-on-coronavirus-response/|]

After riding high just last week, President Donald Trump’s approval rating and handling of the coronavirus crisis have taken a beating in a pair of new polls.

Just last week, Gallup published a poll in which Trump earned the highest net approval of his presidency (49 percent approve vs. 44 percent disapprove), while 60 percent approved of his response to the coronavirus crisis.

He’s fared less well in other recent polls, but still earned positive ratings — until now.

An ABC News/Ipsos poll released Friday, 47 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s coronavirus response, while 52 percent of Americans disapprove — a steep drop from the same poll taken just two weeks ago when a whopping 55 percent approved of Trump’s response.

And in Trump’s favorite survey, the Trump-skewing Rasmussen daily tracking poll, his approval rating has dropped four points in a matter of days. The last time Trump was above water in that poll was Feb. 27, when his approval was at 52 percent. But he began this week with a -5 point net unfavorability, and finishes it nine points underwater with 44 percent approving and 53 percent disapproving.

Public opinion can be difficult to decipher, especially since Trump has been briefing the public every day, with wild swings in tone and advice. Trump’s dip could be a reaction to some combination of factors — there has been ever-worsening economic news and a mounting death toll — or it could be an indication that a rallying effect was at play when his approval was higher, but is now wearing off.

(Because the purpose of the Democratic Primaries is to choose a candidate for the General Election, I believe that a discussion of how delays in the Democratic Primaries might lead to one or more delays in the General Election is appropriate for this forum)

When individual states started talking about delaying their State Democratic Primaries to choose a nominee for President, and then actually started doing it, I was concerned. I was not so concerned about the delays themselves--I believe that the guy I like, Joe Biden, will win the nomination no matter how much the State Democratic Primaries are delayed. No, what concerned me was how a series of events might unfold:

1. Imagine that for the next few months, because the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to rage throughout our country unabated, that all of our State Democratic Primaries are delayed to at least June, and then at least after July 16, the current end of the Democratic National Convention.

2. Imagine that because of the delays in the Democratic State Primaries, the Democratic National Convention is pushed back a few months to September or October in order to allow the state primaries to finish before the Democratic National Convention.

3. Now imagine that before November, Republicans insist that the November Elections be pushed back in order to be sure that the primaries take place before the General Election. Just how far back can the General Election be pushed back? A new President is supposed to be inaugurated by the end of January. What exactly happens if, through one or more pushbacks in time, the General Election gets pushed back beyond the January 2021 inauguration date? Who exactly is President then? Let's look at several possibilities:

Scenario A: Let us assume that, as of the end of January, if no new election for President is held by then, Donald Trump and Mike Pence cease to be President and Vice President. If this is true, who would then be President? Succession should go next to the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, but Nancy Pelosi is also scheduled to get re-elected in November 2020. If a General Election is not held until after January, Speaker Pelosi's term will have expired, as well as every member of the U.S. House of Representatives, and about a third of the Senate, including Senate leader Mitch McConnell, who would normally succeed after the Speaker of the House Pelosi. Because of this possible scenario, I have a question: Can California hold their election for Nancy Pelosi, and in fact for all California U.S. House of Representatives members in November, even if the Republicans insist on no Presidential Election in November? Can the Democratic-leaning states around the country insist on their Congressional and Senate elections be held in November, even if the Republicans do not want the Presidential Election to happen in November? I ask this because in order for Nancy Pelosi to actually be Speaker of the House, she does need a majority in the House, which means that Democrats need enough states to hold the U.S. House of Representative elections before the end of January 2021 in order for Nancy Pelosi to hold a majority when Trump's and Pence's terms expire.

Also, can Nancy Pelosi maintain her majority if enough Red states do not hold their Congressional Elections? Can enough Blue states hold their Congressional elections in November separate from the Presidential Election to allow Nancy Pelosi to maintain her speakership?

Now, this whole discussion may seem academic to some people, except that some people are saying that we may be dealing with Coronavirus for 18 months, and except for the fact that Trump is barely lifting a finger to help end this pandemic. In addition, the fact that Rasmussen recently took a survey asking if voters actually supported a delay in the November presidential election. Rasmussen has been effectively operating as an arm of the Republican Party for years now, producing slanted surveys that always seem to grade Donald Trump higher than all of the other polls. If Rasmussen is asking questions about delaying the November elections, you can bet that the Republicans are thinking about it.

[link:https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/disease/25_are_ready_to_postpone_november_election|]

25% Are Ready to Postpone November Election

Thursday, March 19, 2020

One-in-four voters are prepared already to postpone the November presidential election – for the first time in U.S. history - if the coronavirus threat continues. Support is much higher for delaying upcoming primaries.

Scenario B: What if the Republicans argue that, because of the Coronavirus epidemic, and "because it is not fair to have Trump leave office without getting a chance for reelection" that Trump should simply remain in office until America gets around to having a Presidential election--even if that election is after January 2021? I could definitely see Republicans doing that. Will Republicans be able to both get a delay in the November elections and also manage to get Trump to remain in office past January even if his term has expired? How will we get Trump out of the White House if Republicans insist on this line of thought?

Scenario C: Here's something else to think about. What if one of the reasons that Trump is sitting on his ass so much and not doing much to help get out massive amounts of COVID-19 tests, and not forcing factories to make ventilators and masks, is that he hopes that a massive COVID-19 pandemic situation, still raging by November 2020, is his ticket to avoid getting defeated at the ballot box in November, and to stay in office past January? What if Trump actually has a huge motivation to *NOT* to fix the coronavirus pandemic because he thinks to let the pandemic rage will let him stay in office? What if the thing that most proves that Trump should be booted out of office, his nonaction on the pandemic, turns out to be the very thing that allows him to stay in office? Wouldn't that be ironic, don't ya think? Wouldn't that be horrific?

[link:https://www.npr.org/2020/03/18/818072254/florida-rep-mario-diaz-balart-becomes-1st-member-of-congress-to-contract-coronav|]

Rep. Diaz-Balart Becomes 1st Member Of Congress To Announce Positive COVID-19 Test

Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart says he has tested positive for COVID-19, becoming the first member of Congress to announce he has contracted the novel coronavirus.

Diaz-Balart, 58, voted on the House floor as recently as early Saturday morning, when lawmakers passed a coronavirus relief package.

Diaz-Balart, a Republican who represents Florida's 25th Congressional District, which includes Miami-Dade County, said in a statement that on Saturday evening he developed symptoms, including a fever and a headache.

Still think it's a hoax, Trump?

Democratic Senators who went on to be Presidents.

Harry S. Truman (MO) 1935–1945 1945–1953
John F. Kennedy (MA) 1953–1960 1961–1963
Lyndon B. Johnson (TX) 1949–1961 1963–1969
Barack Obama (IL) 2005–2008 2009–2017

Truman continued FDR's policies and supervised the end of World War II. His defeat of Dewey in 1948 allowed for the continued expansion of America's middle class.

Kennedy inspired the world, handled the Cuban Missle Crisis extremely well, and set America on course to put a man on the moon, all in under 3 years.

Johnson made the mistake of believing Republican nonsense about the "Domino Theory" and how the expansion of Communism must be stopped at all costs. Thus he threw America headlong into the horrible Vietnam War. Yet his domestic policies, including those of pushing for Civil Rights, including the Voting Rights Act, and his policies regarding the War on Poverty were truly great.

Obama rescued America from the Great Recession and gave us Obamacare.

Democratic Senators know how to get legislation through Congress. Those who go on to be Vice Presidents, also have a fundamental understanding of how the White House is supposed to work. I am very happy that our Democratic nominee will have so much Senate experience and 8 years of Vice President experience. He is the perfect antidote to a President who understands so little about how the government is supposed to work.

I don't need to fall in love with the Democratic Nominee. I just need him to do his freaking job. I may not have agreed with everything that every previous Democratic President who was a former Senator did, but every Democratic Senator who went on to become President at least knew how do to their freaking jobs, and none of them simply ignored a crisis or pretended that it would magically go away.

Bernie has a 0.4% chance of getting enough delegates before the Democratic Convention.

[link:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo|]