nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's JournalUS Senate seats up for re-election in 2024 that the Democrats will win by a solid to slight margin.
1)HI(Hirono-D)
2)VT(Sanders-I/D or Balint-D or Zuckerman-P/D)
3)MA(Warren-D)
4)CA(Schiff-D or Breed-D)
5)RI(Whitehouse-D)
6)MD(Cardin-D or Raskin-D or Sarbanes-D)
7)NY(Gillibrand-D)
8)DE(Carper-D or Blunt Rochester-D)
9)MN(Klobuchar-D)
10)WA(Cantwell-D)
11)CT(Murphy-D)
12)PA(Casey-D)
13)WI(Baldwin-D)
14)VA(Kaine-D)
15)NJ(Menendez-D)
16)ME(King-I/D or Golden-D)
17)NM(Heinrich-D)
18)MI(Stabenow-D)
19)NV(Rosen-D)
20)AZ(Sinema-D or Gallego-D)
21)OH(Brown-D)
22)MT(Tester-D)
23)WV(Manchin-D)
2022 US Senate Elections Result- Democratic nominees Best Winning/Losing, Worst Winning/Losing
Best Winning
Bennet-CO) won by a 14.6 percent margin. Up from a 5.7 percent margin in 2016.
Best Losing
Franken-IA) lost to Grassley by a 12.2 percent margin. In 2016 Grassley-R won by a 24.4 percent margin.
Worst Winning
Schumer-NY) won by a 13.2 percent margin. Down from a 43.2 percent margin in 2016.
Schumer margin of victory in 2022 was narrower than Bennet’s margin of victory.
Worst Losing
Demings-FL) lost to Rubio by a 16.4 percent margin. In 2016 Rubio-R won by a 7.7 percent margin.
Best Winning - Schatz-HI
Best Losing- Barnes-WI.
Worst Winning- Cortez Masto-NV
Worst Losing- Bengs-SD.
CO went from a Lean D to a Likely D.
IA went from a Safe R to a Likely R
NY went from a Safe D to a Likely D
FL went from a Lean R to a Likely R.
New Democratic US Senators in 2024,2026,2028,2030 and 2032.
2024
AZ(Gallego)
CA(Schiff)
DE(Blunt Rochester)
ME(Golden)
MD(Raskin)
VT(Balint)
2026
IL(Underwood-D)
MA(Moulton-D)
NC(Hickel-D)
RI(Ciciline-D)
2028
CT(Hayes-D)
NY(Meng-D)
NC(Jackson-D)
OR(Hoyle or Salinas)
WA(Jayapal-D)
WI(Kaul or Rodriguez)
2030
HI(Tokuda-D)
MA(Pressley-D or Trahan-D)
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)
NJ(Kim-D)
VA(Wexton-D)
2032
CO(Neguse-D)
VA(Spanberger-D)
Population in Washington DC Metro Area in MD and Greater Baltimore Metro Area in MD.
Greater Baltimore Area.
Anne Arundel- 591,000
Baltimore- 850,000/1,441,000
Baltimore City- 577,000/2,018,000
Carroll- 174,000/2,192,000
Harford- 263,000/2,455,000
Howard- 335,000/2,790,000
Washington DC Metro Area.
Frederick- 280,000
Montgomery- 1,055,000/1,335,000
Prince George’s- 956,000/2,291,000
Western MD
Allegany- 68,000
Garrett- 29,000/97,000
Washington- 155,000/252,000
Southern MD
Calvert- 94,000
Charles- 169,000/263,000
St Mary’s 115,000/378,000
Eastern MD
Caroline- 34,000
Cecil- 104,000/138,000
Dorchester- 33,000/171,000
Kent- 20,000/191,000
Queen Anne’s- 51,000/242,000
Somerset- 25,000/267,000
Talbot- 38,000/305,000
Wicomico- 104,000/409,000
Worcester- 54,000/463,000
2,790,000 + 463,000= 3,253,000
Greater Baltimore + Eastern MD
2,291,000 + 252,000= 2,543,000 + 378,000= 2,921,000
Washington DC+ Western MD + Southern MD
2024 Democratic US Senate Nominees.
AZ(Gallego-D)Lean D
CA(Schiff-D)Safe D
CT(Murphy-D)Safe D
DE(Carper-D or Blunt Rochester-D)Safe D
FL(Murphy-D)Likely R
HI(Hirono-D)Safe D
IN(Hogsett-D)Safe R
ME(King-I/D or Golden-D)Likely D
MD(Cardin-D or Raskin-D or Sarbanes-D)Safe D
Washington DC metro area(Raskin-D) vs Baltimore MD metro area(Sarbanes-D).
MA(Warren-D)Safe D
MI(Stabenow-D)Likely D
MN(Klobuchar-D)Safe D
MS(Simmons-D)Safe R
MO(Bush-D)Safe R
MT(Tester-D)Tilt D
NE regular(Shelton-D)Safe R
NE special(Blood-D)Safe R
NV(Rosen-D)Lean D
NJ(Menendez-D)Likely D
Andy Kim-D should challenge Menendez.
If Kim wins, NJ will have a US Senator from Southern NJ.
NM(Heinrich-D)Safe D
NY(Gillibrand-D)Safe D
ND(Boschee-D)Safe R
OH(Brown-D)Tilt D
PA(Casey-D)Likely D
RI(Whitehouse-D)Safe D
TN(Yarbro-D)Safe R
TX(Julian or Joaquin Castro-D)Lean R
UT(McAdams-D)Safe R
VT(Sanders-I/D or Zuckerman-P/D or Donovan-D)Safe D
VA(Kaine-D)Likely D
WA(Cantwell-D)Safe D
WV(Manchin-D)Tilt R
WI(Baldwin-D)Likely D
WY(Connolly-D)Safe R
From 1976 to 2016, MD-3CD(Baltimore Metro Area) US House Members were elected to the US Senate.
1976(Paul Sarbanes-D)
1986(Barbara Mikulski-D)
2006(Ben Cardin-D)
In 2016, MD-8CD(Washington DC Metro Area) US House Member(Chris Van Hollen-D) was elected to the US Senate.
If Ben Cardin decides not to seek re-election, MD-3CD US House Member(John Sarbanes-D) and/or MD-8CD US House Member(Jamie Raskin-D) are the frontrunners for Ben Cardin’s MD US Senate seat.
Raskin’s base is Montgomery County,Prince George’s County and other counties in the Washington DC metro area.
Sarbanes’ base is Baltimore City, Baltimore County,Anne Arundel County and other counties in the Greater Baltimore Metro Area.
Incoming Democratic US Senators of 2024.
AZ(Gallego-D)
CA(Schiff-D)
DE(Blunt Rochester-D) if Carper-D retires.
ME(Golden-D) if King-I/D retires.
MD(Raskin-D or J.Sarbanes-D)if Cardin-D retires.
NJ(Fulop-D)
VT(Donovan-D) if Sanders-I/D retires.
The Democratic Nominee for the 2024 MD US Senate Election from the Baltimore area if Cardin retires.
1)John Sarbanes(US Representative of MD-3CD) Paul Sarbanes son.
2)Jon Cardin(MD State House Delegate of MD-11th state House District) Ben Cardin’s nephew.
3)Bill Ferguson(MD State Senate President). Represents the MD-46th state senate district based in Baltimore City. Young,Progressive,Born in Silver Spring(Montgomery County),Lives in Canton(Baltimore City). Ferguson is also a school teacher.
The Democratic Nominee for the 2024 Maryland US Senate Election if Ben Cardin decides to retire.
Jon Cardin-D(Ben Cardin’s nephew)
John Sarbanes-D(Ben Cardin’s predecessor Paul Sarbanes’s son. If John Sarbanes runs for the US Senate, Jon Cardin suceeds John Sarbanes in the MD-3rd CD US House seat.
Anthony Brown-D(Current Attorney General, former US House member from MD-4th CD, former Lt Governor, and former state House delegate.)
Jamie Raskin-D(Current US House Member from MD-8th CD.)
Glenn Ivey-D(Current US House Member from MD-4th CD, former Prince George’s County Attorney)
Aruna Miller-D(Current Lt Governor)
Brooke Lierman-D(Current State Comptroller/former state House Delegate)
Angela Alsobrooks-D(Current Prince George’s County Executive, Former Prince George’s County Attorney)
Jolene Ivey(Glenn Ivey’s wife)
If Ben Cardin decides not to seek re-election to his MD US Senate seat in 2024,
Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks should be the Democratic nominee if she decides to run.
Alsobrooks will be the 1st black female US Senator from MD.
Alsobrooks is a Washington DC outsider unlike Raskin,Sarbanes,and Trone.
Alsobrooks served 2 terms as Prince George’s County State Attorney(2011-2019) and 2 terms as Prince George’s County Executive (2019-present).
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