AL- Brandaun Dean-D
AK-Elvi Gray Jackson-D
AZ-Mark Kelly-D
AR-Dan Whitefield-D
CA-Alex Padilla-D
CO-Michael Bennet-D
CT-Richard Blumenthal-D
FL-Val Demings-D
GA-Raphael Warnock-D
HI-Brian Schatz-D
ID-David Roth-D
IL-Tammy Duckworth-D
IN-Thomas McDermott Jr.-D
IA-Abby Finkenauer-D
KS-Mark Holland-D
KY-Charles Booker-D
LA-Gary Chambers-D
MD-Chris Van Hollen-D
MO-Scott Sifton-D
NV-Catherine Cortez Masto-D
NH-Maggie Hassan-D
NY-Chuck Schumer-D
NC-Cheri Beasley-D
ND-Michael Steele-D
OH-Tim Ryan-D
OK regular-Bevon Rogers-D
OK special-Kendra Horn-D
OR-Ron Wyden-D
PA-John Fetterman-D
SC-Krystle Matthews-D
SD-Brian Bengs-D
UT-Kael Weston-D
VT-Peter Welch-D
WA-Patty Murray-D
WI-Mandela Barnes-D

37)CA(Padilla-D)
38)NY(Schumer-D)
39)HI(Schatz-D)
40)MD(Van Hollen-D)
41)CT(Blumenthal-D)
42)VT(Welch-D)
43)IL(Duckworth-D)
44)OR(Wyden-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)AZ(Kelly-D)"
49)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
50)GA(Warnock-D)
51)PA(Fetterman-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
53)NC(Beasley-D)
54)OH(Ryan-D)

If 2022 is a Republican wave election year.
37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)NY(Schumer-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)MD(Van Hollen-D)
41)CT(Blumenthal-D)
42)VT(Welch-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)WA(Murray-D)
45)IL(Duckworth-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
If 2022 is a neutral year.
48)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)PA(Fetterman-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
If 2022 is a Democratic wave year.
52)WI(Barnes-D)
53)NC(Beasley-D)
54)OH(Ryan-D)
55)FL(Demings-D)

NC(Tillis-R)Jeff Jackson-D
IA(Ernst-R)Cindy Axne-D
ME(Collins-R)Jared Golden-D
TX(Cornyn-R)Lizzie Fletcher-D

FL(Scott-R) Soto-D
TX(Cruz-R) Allred-D

FL(Rubio-R)Demings-D
MO(OPEN Blunt-R)Kunce-D
NC(OPEN Burr-R)Beasley-D
OH(OPEN Portman-R)Ryan-D
PA(OPEN Toomey-R) Fetterman-D
WI(Johnson-R)Barnes-D

AZ(Kelly-D)
CO(Bennet-D) if the national environment is bad for Democrats.
GA(Warnock-D)
NV(Cortez Masto-D)
NH(Hassan-D) if the national environment is bad for Democrats.

Democratic US Senators won their previous US Senate races by a narrow to high single digit margin.

AZ(Sinema-D)
MI(Stabenow-D)
MT(Tester-D)
NV(Rosen-D)
OH(Brown-D)
WV(Manchin-D)
These US Senators won in 2024 by a narrow to high single digit margin.

GA(Ossoff-D)
MI(Peters-D)
MN(Smith-D)
NM(Lujan-D)
These US Senators won in 2020 by a narrow to high single digit margin.

2024 will be the year Democrats might lose 1 or 2 seats. WV(Manchin-D),MT(Tester-D), and possibly OH(Brown-D). The Republican nominee in those seats will benifit from the 2024 Republican presidential nominee coattails.
In 2022, Democrats need to hold onto every Democratic held US Senate seat up in 2022 including AZ(Kelly-D,NV(Cortez Masto-D) and GA(Warnock-D) and pick up PA(Fetterman-D),WI(Barnes-D),and NC(Beasley-D).
In 2024, Democrats will hold onto AZ(Sinema-D),MI(Stabenow-D),MN(Klobuchar-D),NV(Rosen-D),PA(Casey-D), and WI(Baldwin-D).
In 2026, Democrats will pick up ME and NC. Democrats could lose GA