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nkpolitics1212

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Member since: Tue May 24, 2022, 10:37 AM
Number of posts: 6,935

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2018 FL Governors race- Could Democratic candidates Graham and Gillum-D be on the Gov/Lt Gov ticket?

Does Graham or Gillum-D have to pick a South Florida Democrat? Patrick Murphy or Kendrick Meek.
Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Sun May 21, 2017, 08:18 PM (0 replies)

2018 US House Election-Republican US House members in Democratic leaning Districts and

Weak Republican leaning districts (Even to +4R)
AZ-2 (McSally-R)+1R 1
CA-10 (Denham-R)Even 2
CA-21(Valadao-R)+5D 3
CA-25 (Knight-R)Even 4
CA-39 (Royce-R)Even
CA-45 (Walters-R)+3R
CA-48 (Rohrabacher-R)+4R
CA-49 (Issa-R)+1R 5
CO-6 (Coffman-R)+2D 6
FL-25 (Diaz Balart-R)+4R
FL-26 (Curbelo-R)+6D 7
FL-27 (Open-Ros-Lehtinen-R)+5D 8
IL-6 (Roskam-R)+2R
IL-13 (Davis-R)+3R
IA-1 (Blum-R)+1D 9
IA-3(Young-R)+1R 10
KS-3 (Yoder-R)+4R
ME-2 (Poliquin-R)+2R 11
MI-6 (Upton-R)+4R
MI-8 (Rogers-R)+4R
MI-11 (Trott-R)+4R 12
MN-2 (Lewis-R)+2R 13
MN-3 (Paulsen-R)+1D 14
NE-2 (Bacon-R)+4R 15
NJ-2 (LoBiondo-R)+1R
NJ-3 (McArthur-R)+2R
NJ-7 (Lance-R)+3R
NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen-R) +3R
NY-2(King-R)+3R
NY-11 (Donovan-R)+3R
NY-19 (Faso-R)+2R 15
NY-21 (Stefanick-R)+4R
NY-24(Katko-R)+3D
OH-10 (Turner-R)+4R
PA-6 (Costello-R)+2R 16
PA-7 (Meehan-R)+1R
PA-8 (Fitzpatrick-R)+2R 17
PA-15 (Dent-R)+4R
TX-23 (Hurd-R)+1R 18
VA-2 (Taylor-R)+3R
VA-10(Comstock-R)+1D 19
WA-3 (Herrara-Beutler-R) +4R
WA-8 (Reichert-R)Even
Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Sun May 21, 2017, 04:32 PM (3 replies)

Can Democrats do to Paul Ryan-WI in 2018 what Republicans did to Tom Foley-WA in 1994?

In 1994- Then Democratic Speaker of the US House Tom Foley narrowly lost re-election to George Nethercutt because of the Republican wave and also because Foley opposed the Term Limits initiative in 1992 which was approved by majority of the voters in WA. Nethercutt promised to serve 3 terms but ran for re-election in 2000 and 2002, In 2004 he ran for the US Senate against Patty Murphy and lost by a double digit margin.
Paul Ryan-WI represents a +5R District and it was previously held Les Aspin/Peter Barca before the 1994 midterm elections.
Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Sun May 21, 2017, 03:35 PM (11 replies)

Trump Impeachment Trial-Which Republican US Senator could vote yes to remove Trump from office?

Impeachment is likely to take place after the 2018 elections. Every highly vulnerable Democratic US Senator up for re-election in 2018 (Donnelly-IN,McCaskill-MO,Heitkamp-ND,and Brown-OH) will win re-election and highly vulnerable Republican US Senator up for re-election in 2018 (Flake-AZ,Heller-NV,and Cruz-TX) will lose re-election.
Every Democratic US Senator will vote yes to remove Trump from office- 51 Yes.
The number of Republican US Senators that we need to vote yes is 16.

Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Sun May 21, 2017, 02:15 PM (7 replies)

2018 US House Election- Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats.

Democrats need to worry about holding onto
MN-1 (Open-Walz-D)
Democrats need to pick up
MT(Vacant-Zinke-R)Special Election on May 25, 2017. +1D
GA-6 (Vacant-Price-R)Special Election on June 20, 2017. +2D
AZ-2 (McSally-R)+3D
CA-10 (Denham-R)+4D
CA-21 (Valadao-R)+5D
CA-25 (Knight-R)+6D
CA-39(Royce-R )+7D
CA-45 (Walters-R)+8D
CA-48(Rohrabacher-R)+9D
CA-49 (Issa-R)+10D
CO-6 (Coffman-R)+11D
FL-26 (Curbelo-R)+12D
FL-27 (Open-Ros-Lehtinen-R) +13D
IL-6 (Roskam-R)+14D
IL-13 (Davis-R)+15D
IA-1 (Blum-R)+16D
IA-3 (Young-R)+17D
KS-2 (Open-Jenkins-R)+18D
KS-3 (Yoder-R)+19D
ME-2 (Poliquin-R)+20D
MI-8 (Bishop-R)+21D
MI-11 (Trott-R)+22D
MN-2 (Lewis-R)+23D
MN-3 (Paulsen-R)+24D
NE-2 (Bacon-R)+25D
NJ-7 (Lance-R)+26D
NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen-R) +27D
NY-19 (Faso-R)+28D
NY-22(Tenney-R)+29D
NY-24 (Katko-R)+30D
PA-6 (Costello-R)+31D
PA-7 (Meehan-R)+32D
PA-8 (Fitzpatrick-R)+33D
PA-16 (Smucker-R)+34D
TX-7 (Culberson-R)+35D
TX-23 (Hurd-R)+36D
TX-32 (Sessions-R)+37D
VA-10 (Comstock-R)+38D


Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Sun May 21, 2017, 12:02 PM (15 replies)

Who is worse? Chaffetz or Cannon?

Any chance Cannon make a comeback?
Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Sat May 20, 2017, 09:56 PM (2 replies)

I just learned that Holy Joseph Isadore Lieberman works at a law firm that represents Donald Trump.

He worked at Kasowitz,Benson,Torres,and Friedman, a law firm in NYC that specializes in White Collar Criminal Defense right after he left the US Senate.Donald Trump is one of their clients.
Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Sat May 20, 2017, 05:35 PM (2 replies)

2017,2018,and 2019 Gubenatorial Elections.

2017
Democrats hold onto VA (Northam-D) and pick up NJ (Murphy-D)16D
2018
Democrats hold onto CA (Newsom-D),CO (Perlmutter-D),CT (Drew-D),HI (Ige-D),MN (Walz-D),NY (Cuomo-D),OR (Brown-D),
PA (Wolf-D), and RI (Raimondo-D) and pick up FL (Graham-D),IL (Pritzker-D),ME (Pingree-D),MI (Whitmer-D), NV (Miller-D), and
NM (Lujan Grisham-D) 22D
2019
Democrats hold onto LA (Bel Edwards-D),and pick up KY (Lundergan Grimes-D) and MS (Hood-D) 24D
2020
Democrats hold onto DE (Carney-D),MT (Schweitzer-D),NC (Cooper-D),WA (Inslee-D),and WV (Justice-D) and pick up MO (Kander-D), and NH (Marchand-D) 26D




Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Sat May 20, 2017, 04:23 PM (1 replies)

2018 US Senate Election Ratings.

Solid Democratic
CA (Feinstein-D) could retire or lose in November 2018 against another Democrat. 24D
CT (Murphy-D) 25D
DE (Carper-D) if Carper-D retires, Markell or Denn seek the Democratic nomination. 26D
HI (Hirono-D) if Hirono-D has to retire early, look for Gabbard-D to replace her. 27D
MD (Cardin-D) if Cardin-D retires, John Sarbanes-D will be the Democratic nominee. 28D
MA (Warren-D) 29D
MN (Klobuchar-D)30D
NM (Heinrich-D)31D
NY (Gillibrand-D)32D
RI (Whitehouse-D)33D
VT (Sanders-D)34D
WA (Cantwell-D)35D
Solid Republican
MS (Wicker-R)45R
NE (Fischer-R)46R
TN (Corker-R)47R
UT (Hatch-R) could retire or lose to Evan McMullin in the primary or general. 48R
WY (Barrasso-R)49R
Likely Democratic
ME (King-D)36D
MI (Stabenow-D)37D
NJ (Menendez-D)likely to resign early and be replaced by a Democrat appointed by future Democratic Governor Phil Murphy-D 38D
PA (Casey-D)39D
VA (Kaine-D)40D
Likely Republican
TX (Cruz-R)50R
Lean Democratic
FL (Nelson-D)41D
MT (Tester-D)42D
OH (Brown-D)43D
WV (Manchin-D)44D
WI (Baldwin-D)45D
Lean Republican
AZ (Flake-R)51R
Tossup
IN (Donnelly-D) will face a tough race against Rokita-R or Messer-R.
MO (McCaskill-D) will face a tough race against Wagner-R.
ND (Heitkamp-D) will face a tough race against Cramer-R.
Democrats won IN,MO,and ND in 2012 because of the Republican nominees self destructive behavior. Will history repeat itself in 2018?
NV (Heller-R)will face a tough race against Titus-D or Marshall-D. Democrats win the 2018 NV US Senate Race. 46D.
Democrats could win AZ if Flake-R loses in the Republican primary and Friend of Gabby-St Representative Randy Friese-D seeks the Democratic nomination.



Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Thu May 18, 2017, 09:41 PM (7 replies)

Russ Feingold (D-WI)

If Russ Feingold wanted to get back into the US Senate, how come he did not run in 2012 when it was an open seat (Kohl-D was retiring), Obama was on the ballot and was favored to carry WI by high single digit margin. Feingold would have benefited from Obama's coattails. Feingold had a better shot of defeating Tommy Thompson in 2012 then defeating Ron Johnson in a rematch.
Russ Feingold then could have run for President in 2016 or be the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee. Tammy Baldwin would have been the Democratic US Senate nominee in 2016 against Ron Johnson. Tammy Baldwin-D could have defeated Johnson in 2016.
Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Thu May 18, 2017, 08:22 PM (0 replies)
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