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nkpolitics1212

nkpolitics1212's Journal
nkpolitics1212's Journal
October 22, 2017

If Begich (D-AK) were to run for the US House in 2018, Will the 2018 AK US House Race go from

Republican Favored to a Tossup?
Could Begich-D benefit from Governor Bill Walker's coattails and Trump's unpopularity?
Democrats could also pick up the SD US House seat in 2018 if former SD US Attorney Brendan Johnson ran, Johnson is the son of former US Senator Tim Johnson.

October 22, 2017

2020 Democratic Vice Presidential Runningmate-US Senator from a Rust belt swing state.

Must be from a state with a Democratic Governor.
Harris/Klobuchar ticket can turn MN,WI,MI,and PA into blue states and IA and OH into purple states.

October 22, 2017

2020 US Senate Election-if Democrats recruit top tier candidates in every state.

Democrats hold onto
DE (Coons-D)
IL (Durbin-D)Madigan-D if Durbin retires.
MA (Markey-D)
MI (Peters-D)
MN (Franken-D)
NH (Shaheen-D)
NJ (Booker-D)
NM (Udall-D)
OR (Merkley-D)
RI (Reed-D)
VA (Warner-D)
Democrats pick up
AZ Special (OPEN McCain-R) Stanton-D
CO (Gardner-R) Perlmutter-D
IA (Ernst-R) Loebsack-D
MT (Daines-R)Bullock-D
NC (Tillis-R) Stein-D
2018
Democrats pick up
AZ (Flake-R)Sinema-D
NV (Heller-R)Rosen-D
Democrats could lose
IN (Donnelly-D)Messer-R or Rokita-R
MO (McCaskill-D)Hawley-R
Democrats could end up with 53 to 55 seats in 2021.

October 22, 2017

2020 US Senate Election- Defeated Democratic incumbents seeking a rematch-

Most Likely to win to Least Likely to win.
CO (Udall-D vs Gardner-D)Tossup Democratic/Lean Democratic
NC (Hagan-D vs Tillis-R)Tossup Republican/Tossup Democratic
AK (Begich-D vs Sullivan-R) Tossup Republican/Lean Republican
LA(Landrieu-D vs Cassidy-R)Lean Republican/Likely Republican
AR (Cotton-R vs Pryor-D) Likely Republican/Solid Republican
Udall-CO,Hagan-NC and Begich-AK have a decent chance of winning a rematch.
Pryor-AR and Landrieu-LA have a zero chance of winning a rematch.

October 21, 2017

If Mark Udall (D-CO) were to seek a rematch in 2020 like Feingold (D-WI) did in 2016,

Can Udall (D-CO) win in 2020?
Looking at both of the WI( Johnson-R vs Feingold-D) races,
Feingold-D lost in 2010 by a 4.84 percent margin.
Feingold-D lost in 2016 by a 3.35 percent margin.
Feingold's margin of defeat decreased by 1.49 percent
Obama-D carried WI in 2012 by a 6.94 percent margin
Trump-R carried WI in 2016 by a .77 percent margin.
7.71 percent movement to the Republican party.
Looking at both of the CO (Gardner-R vs Udall-D) races,
Udall-D lost in 2014 by a 1.9 percent margin.
Obama-D carried CO in 2012 by a 5.37 percent margin.
Clinton-D carried CO in 2016 by a 4.91 percent margin.
The 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee will carry CO in 2020 by a 5 percent margin.
Udall-D will win the 2020 CO US Senate Race by 2.5 percent margin.

October 21, 2017

US Senate Seniority List in 1/2019 based on total number of years served in US House and US Senate.

1)Cochran (R-MS)H (1973-1978)S (1978-present) 46 years
2)Leahy(D-VT)S (1975-present) 44 years
3)Grassley (R-IA)H (1975-1981)S (1981-present) 44 years
4)Markey (D-MA)H (1976 -2013) S (2013- present) 42.25 years.
5)Hatch (R-UT)S (1977-present) 42 years
6)Shelby (R-AL)H (1979-1987)S (1987-present) 40 years
7)Wyden (D-OR)H (1981-1996)S (1996-present) 38 years
8)Roberts (R-KS)H (1981-1997)S (1997-present) 38 years
9)Schumer (D-NY)H (1981-1999)S (1999-present) 38 years
10)Durbin (D-IL)H (1983-1997)S (1997-present) 36 years
11)McConnell (R-KY)S (1985-present) 34 years
12)Inhofe (R-OK)H (1987-1994)S (1994-present) 32 years
13)Cardin (D-MD)H (1987-2007)S (2007-present) 32 years
14)Pallone (D-NJ)H (1988-2018)S (2018-present) 30.25 years
15)Nelson (D-FL)H (1979-1991)S (2001-present) 30 years
16)Reed (D-RI)H (1991-1997)S (1997-present) 28 years
17)Carper (D-DE)H (1983-1993)S (2001-present)28 years
18)Sanders (I-VT)H (1991-2007)S (2007-present)28 years
19)Feinstein (D-CA)S (1992-present)26.25 years.
20)Murray (D-WA)S (1993-present)26years.
21)Crapo (R-ID)H (1993-1999)S (1999-present)26 years.
22)Brown (D-OH)H (1993-2007)S (2007-present) 26 years.
23)Graham (R-SC)H (1995-2003)S (2003-present) 24 years.
24)Burr (R-NC)H (1995-2005)S (2005-present) 24 years.
25)Wicker (R-MS)H (1995-2007)S (2007-present) 24 years.
26)Collins (R-ME)S (1997-present) 22 years.
27)Enzi (R-WY)S (1997-present) 22 years.
28)Stabenow (D-MI)H (1997-2001) S (2001-present) 22 years.
29)Blunt (R-MO)H (1997-2011) S (2011-present)22 years.
30)Moran (R-KS)H (1997-2011) S (2011-present)22 years
31)Cantwell (D-WA)H (1993-1995) S (2001-present) 20 years.
32)Thune (R-SD)H (1997-2003) S (2005-present) 20 years.
33)Udall (D-NM)H (1999-2009 S (2009-present) 20 years.
34)Portman (R-OH) H (1993-2005)S (2011-present)20 years
35)Baldwin (D-WI)H (1999-2013)S (2013-present) 20 years.
36)Isakson (R-GA)H (1999-2005) S (2005-present) 19.75 years.
37)Moore Capito (R-WV) H (2001-2015) S (2015-present) 18 years
38)Boozman (R-AR)H (2001-2011)S (2011-present) 17.25 years.
39)Murkowski (R-AK)S (2002-present) 16 years.
40)Alexander (R-TN)S (2003-present) 16 years.
41)Cornyn (R-TX)S (2003-present) 16 years.
42)Van Hollen (D-MD)H (2003-2017)S (2017-present) 16 years.
43)Blackburn (R-TN)H (2003-2019)S (2019-present)16 years
44)Toomey (R-PA)H (1999-2005)S (2011-present) 14 years.
45)Casey (D-PA)S (2007-present) 12 years.
46)Klobuchar (D-MN)S (2007-present) 12 years.
47)Whitehouse (D-RI)S (2007-present) 12 years.
48)Tester (D-MT)S (2007-present) 12 years.
49)Gillibrand (D-NY)H (2007-2009)S (2009-present) 12 years.
50)Murphy (D-CT)H (2007-2013)S (2013-present) 12 years.
51)Hirono (D-HI)H (2007-2013)S (2013-present) 12 years.
52)Barrasso (R-WY) S (2007-present) 11.5 years.
53)Shaheen (D-NH) S (2009-present) 10 years.
54)Warner (D-VA)S (2009-present) 10 years.
55)Risch (R-ID)S (2009-present) 10 years.
56)Merkley (D-OR)S (2009-present) 10 years.
57)Heinrich (D-NM)H (2009-2013) S (2013-present) 10 years
58)Peters (D-MI)H (2009-2015)S (2015-present) 10 years.
59)Cassidy (R-LA)H (2009-2015)S (2015-present) 10 years
60)Bennett (D-CO)S (2009-present) 10 years.
61)Franken (D-MN) S (2009-present) 9.5 years.
62)Manchin (D-WV) S (2010-present) 8.25 years.
63)Coons (D-DE)S (2010-present) 8.25 years.
64)Hoeven (R-ND)S (2011-present) 8 years
65)Rubio (R-FL)S (2011-present) 8 years
66)Johnson (R-WI)S (2011-present) 8 years
67)Paul (R-KY)S (2011-present) 8 years
68)Blumenthal (D-CT)S (2011-present) 8 years
69)Lee (R-UT)S (2011-present) 8 years
70)Scott (R-SC)H (2011-2013)S (2013-present) 8 years
71)Gardner (R-CO)H (2011-2015) S (2015- present) 8 years
72)Lankford (R-OK)H (2011-2015)S (2015- present) 8 years
73)Young (R-IN)H (2011-2017)S (2017- present) 8 years
74)Rokita (R-IN)H (2011-2019)S (2019-present) 8 years
75)Schatz (D-HI)S (2012-present) 6.25 years
76)King (I-VT)S (2013-present) 6 years
77)Kaine (D-VA)S (2013-present) 6 years
78)Cruz (R-TX)S (2013-present) 6 years
79)Warren (D-MA)S (2013-present) 6 years
80)Fischer (R-NE)S (2013-present) 6 years
81)Heitkamp (D-ND)S (2013-present) 6 years
82)Cotton (R-AR)H (2013-2015)S (2015-present) 6 years
83)Daines (R-MT)H (2013-2015)S (2015-present) 6 years
84)Duckworth (D-IL)H (2013-2017)S (2017-present) 6 years
85)Sinema (D-AZ)H (2013-2019)S (2019-present) 6 years
86)Booker (D-NJ)S (2013-present) 5.25 years
87)Rounds (R-SD)S (2015-present) 4 years
88)Perdue (R-GA)S (2015-present) 4 years
89)Thillis (R-NC)S (2015-present) 4 years
90)Ernst (R-IA)S (2015-present) 4 years
91)Sasse (R-NE)S (2015-present) 4 years
92)Sullivan (R-AK)S (2015-present) 4 years
93)Hassan (D-NH)S (2017-present) 2 years
94)Harris (D-CA)S (2017-present) 2 years
95)Kennedy (R-LA)S (2017-present) 2 years
96)Cortez Masto (D-NV)S (2017-present) 2 years
97)Rosen (D-NV)H (2017-present)S (2019-present) 2 years
98)Moore (R-AL)S (2018-present) 1 year
99)Kelly (D-AZ)S (2018- present) .25 years
100)Hawley (R-MO)S (2019-present)
Menendez (D-NJ) resigns in mid 1/2018 gets replaced by Pallone-D
Corker (R-TN)gets replaced by Blackburn-R
Donnelly (D-IN) loses re-election to Rokita-R
Flake (R-AZ)loses re-election to Sinema-D
Heller (R-NV)loses re-election to Rosen-D
McCaskill (D-MO) loses re-election to Hawley-R
Kelly (D-AZ) wins 2018 special election to replace McCain-R





October 21, 2017

2018 US Senate Election-if we get every top tier Democratic candidate in every seat.

AZ-Sinema-D-US Representative of AZ9CD- Tossup Democratic
MS-Hood-D- MS Attorney General - Lean Republican
NE-Fahey-D- Former Mayor of Omaha,NE- Likely Republican
NV-Rosen-D- US Representative of NV3CD- Tossup Democratic
TN-Bredesen-D- Former TN Governor- Lean Republican
TX-O'Rourke-D- US Representative of TX16CD- Likely Republican
UT-Matheson-D- Former US Representative of UT4CD- Lean Republican
WY-Freudenthal-D Former WY Governor- Lean Republican
Democrats will hold onto every Democratic held US Senate seat and pick up AZ and NV- 50 seats.

October 19, 2017

2018 US Senate Election Ranking-Most Likely to Least Likely to flip.

1)AZ (Flake-R) Lean Democratic Takeover 24D
2)NV (Heller-R) Tossup Democratic Takeover 25D
3)MO (McCaskill-D) Tossup Democratic Retention 26D
4)IN (Donnelly-D)Tossup Democratic Retention 27D
5)WV (Manchin-D)Lean Democratic Retention 28D
6)ND (Heitkamp-D)Lean Democratic Retention 29D
7)FL (Nelson-D)Lean Democratic Retention 30D
8)OH (Brown-D)Lean Democratic Retention 31D
9)MT (Tester-D)Lean Democratic Retention 32D
10)WI (Baldwin-D)Lean Democratic Retention 33D
11)PA (Casey-D)Likely Democratic Retention 34D
12)VA (Kaine-D)Likely Democratic Retention 35D
13)ME (King-I/D)Likely Independent Retention 36D
14)MI (Stabenow-D)Likely Democratic Retention 37D
15)NJ (OPEN-Menendez-D)Likely Democratic Retention 38D/if Menendez-D is convicted and forced to resign before Christie-R leaves office and Christie-R gets to appoint-NJ will move from 15 to 1-Likely Democratic Takeover.
16)TN (OPEN-Corker-R)Likely Republican Retention 45R
17)TX (Cruz-R)Likely Republican Retention 46R
18)UT (Hatch-R)Solid Republican Retention 47R
19)NM (Heinrich-D)Solid Democratic Retention 39D
20)MA (Warren-D)Solid Democratic Retention 40D
21)CT (Murphy-D)Solid Democratic Retention 41D
22)MD (Cardin-D)Solid Democratic Retention 42D
23)NE (Fischer-R)Solid Republican Retention 48R
24)MS (Wicker-R)Solid Republican Retention 49R
25)RI (Whitehouse-D)Solid Democratic Retention 43D
26)MN (Klobuchar-D)Solid Democratic Retention 44D
27)DE (Carper-D)Solid Democratic Retention 45D
28)NY (Gillibrand-D)Solid Democratic Retention 46D
29)VT (Sanders-I/D)Solid Independent Retention 47D
30)WA (Cantwell-D)Solid Democratic Retention 48D
31)CA (Feinstein-D)Solid Democratic Retention 49D
32)HI (Hirono-D)Solid Democratic Retention 50D
33)WY (Barrasso-D)Solid Republican Retention 50R

October 19, 2017

Is Gillespie's political over after losing the 2017 VA Governors Race or

Will Gillespie seek a rematch against Warner in the 2020 VA US Senate Race?

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