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nkpolitics1212

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Member since: Tue May 24, 2022, 10:37 AM
Number of posts: 6,934

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US Senate Elections in the states the Democrats are definitely going to win in 2022.

Safe D
NY(Schumer-D)37
HI(Schatz-D)38
CA(Padilla-D)39
VT(Welch-D)40
MD(Van Hollen-D)41
Likely/Lean D
OR(Wyden-D)42
IL(Duckworth-D)43
CT(Blumenthal-D)44
WA(Murray-D)45
CO(Bennet-D)46
Lean/Tilt D
AZ(Kelly-D)47
NH(Hassan-D)48
PA(Fetterman-D)49
NV(Cortez Masto-D)50
GA(Warnock-D)51

Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Thu Jun 23, 2022, 06:02 PM (0 replies)

Battleground 2022 US Senate Elections in states the Democrats will win to remain in the majority.

AZ(Kelly-D vs Masters-R) 47
NH(Hassan-D vs Bolduc-R) 48
PA(Fetterman-D vs Oz-R) 49
NV(Cortez Masto-D vs Laxalt-R) 50
GA(Warnock-D vs Walker-R) 51

Democrats are strongly favored to win
NY(Schumer-D)37
HI(Schatz-D)38
CA(Padilla-D)39
VT(Welch-D)40
MD(Van Hollen-D)41
OR(Wyden-D)42
IL(Duckworth-D)43
CT(Blumenthal-D)44
WA(Murray-D)45
CO(Bennet-D)46
Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Thu Jun 23, 2022, 04:17 PM (0 replies)

Which Democratic candidate in the 2022 WI US Senate Election is a strong general election candidate.

Mandela Barnes-D or Sarah Godlewski-D?
Godlewski is a statewide elected official in WI.(State Treasurer)
Godlewski is leading Johnson by a 2 percent margin in a recent poll(Marquette) just like Barnes.

Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Thu Jun 23, 2022, 03:17 PM (5 replies)

US Senate Elections in 2022 that the Democrats are most likely going to win.

37)CA(Padilla-D)
38)NY(Schumer-D)
39)VT(Welch-D)
40)HI(Schatz-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)OR(Wyden-D)
43)CT(Blumenthal-D)
44)IL(Duckworth-D)
45)CO(Bennet-D)
46)WA(Murray-D)
47)PA(Fetterman-D)
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)NH(Hassan-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)

Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Thu Jun 23, 2022, 02:46 PM (0 replies)

US Senate races in 2022 that the Democrats will win by a landslide to narrow margin.

37)CA(Padilla-D)
38)NY(Schumer-D)
39)HI(Schatz-D)
40)MD(Van Hollen-D)
41)OR(Wyden-D)
42)VT(Welch-D)
43)IL(Duckworth-D)
44)CT(Blumenthal-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)PA(Fetterman-D)
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)NH(Hassan-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Mandela-D)
53)NC(Beasley-D)
54)OH(Ryan-D)
Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Tue Jun 21, 2022, 10:46 PM (0 replies)

Ranking the US Senate Races the Democrats will win in 2022 based on candidate quality.

CA(Padilla-D vs Meuser-R)
NY(Schumer-D vs Pinion-R)
HI(Schatz-D vs McDermott-R)
MD(Van Hollen-D vs Chaffee-R)
OR(Wyden-D vs Rae Perkins-R)
VT(Welch-D vs Nolan-R)
IL(Duckworth-D vs Hubbard-R)
CT(Blumenthal-D vs Klarides-R)
WA(Murray-D vs Smiley-R)
CO(Bennet-D vs O’Dea/Hanks-R)
PA(Fetterman-D vs Oz-R)
AZ(Kelly-D vs Masters-R)
NH(Hassan-D vs Bolduc-R)
NV(Cortez Masto-D vs Laxalt-R)
GA(Warnock-D vs Walker-R) Warnock’s 2022 margin of victory will be similar to his 2020 margin of victory.
WI(Barnes-D vs Johnson-R) Barnes benefits from Governor Tony Evers coattails.
NC(Beasley-D vs Budd-R) Budd and Beasley are generic candidates. NC is a Trump state but his margin of victory from 2016 to 2020 has decreased.
OH(Ryan-D vs Vance-R) Ryan is a stronger candidate than Vance but OH is a Trump state. Looking at Sherrod Brown’s US Senate Races. Brown won his 1st US Senate Race in 2006 against Governor Mike DeWine who was then a fairly popular US Senator by a 12 percent margin. Brown’s margin of victory in 2012 and 2018 was at 6 percent.


Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Tue Jun 21, 2022, 09:14 PM (0 replies)

Ranking the US Senate Races that the Democrats will win in 2022 by a landslide to narrow margin.

37)NY(Schumer-D)
38)CA(Padilla-D)
39)HI(Schatz-D)
40)VT(Welch-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)IL(Duckworth-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)CT(Blumenthal-D)
45)CO(Bennet-D)
46)WA(Murray-D)
47)AZ(Kelly-D)
48)NH(Hassan-D)
49)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
50)PA(Fetterman-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
53)NC(Beasley-D)
54)OH(Ryan-D)
Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Tue Jun 21, 2022, 07:24 PM (0 replies)

If AZ Democrats want to replace Kyrsten Sinema. They should replace her with Kate Gallego.

The current mayor of Phoenix.
Phoenix is the largest city in AZ
Population of 1.6 million
Sinema will be replaced by a woman.
Ruben Gallego and Greg Stanton don’t have to give up their US House seats if they lose.
Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Tue Jun 21, 2022, 04:49 PM (3 replies)

Democrats need to gain as many US Senate seats this year in order to offset losses in 2024.

2022- There are no Trump state Democratic held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2022. There are 2 Biden state Republican held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2022. PA(OPEN Toomey-R) and WI(Johnson-R) Democrats are likely to pick up PA(Fetterman-D) and WI(Barnes-D). Democrats will end up with 52 seats allowing us to ignore Sinema-AZ and Manchin-WV.
2024- There are 3 Trump state Democratic held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2024. MT(Tester-D),OH(Brown-D) and WV(Manchin-D). Tester and Brown will be saved by high turnout with the Democratic base. If Democrats want to replace Sinema with a Democrat, They have better chance with Kate Gallego-D. The current mayor of Phoenix and Ruben’s ex-wife. AZ will still have a female Democratic US Senator. Democratic will lose 1 seat.
2026- The battleground US Senate seats are going to be in
GA-Ossoff-D if Kemp gets re-elected in 2022 and runs for the US Senate in 2026.
ME-Collins-R if Collins retires and/or Golden is the Democratic nominee.
NC-Tillis-R if Jeff Jackson runs.
Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Tue Jun 21, 2022, 04:31 PM (1 replies)

Who is likely to be the 2025 Democratic nominee for VA Governor?

US Representatives Elaine Luria, Abigail Spanberger, or Jennifer Wexton.
Mayors Kenny Alexander or Levar Stoney.

Which US Senator will Glenn Youngkin run against?
Mark Warner-D in 2026 or Tim Kaine-D in 2030?

Glenn Youngkin-R will make the race competitive but will end up losing.
Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Tue Jun 21, 2022, 03:02 PM (1 replies)
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