nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's JournalDemocratic US Representatives likely to run and get elected to the US Senate in 2024.
AZ(Gallego-D or Stanton-D)
CA(Schiff-D or Khanna-D or Porter-D)
MD(Sarbanes-D or Raskin-D)
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)
Based on seniority.
CA(Schiff-D)2001
MD(Sarbanes-D)2007
AZ(Gallego-D)2015
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)2019
CA(Schiff-D)2001
MD(Sarbanes-D/Raskin-D)2007/2017
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)2019
AZ(Stanton-D)
CA(Schiff-D)2001
AZ(Gallego-D)2015
MD(Raskin-D)2017
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)2019
CA(Schiff-D/Khanna-D)2001/2017
MD(Raskin-D)2017
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)2019
AZ(Stanton-D)2019
MD(Sarbanes-D/Raskin-D)2007/2017
CA(Porter-D)
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)2019
AZ(Stanton-D)2019
MD(Sarbanes-D)2007
CA(Khanna-D/Porter-D)2017/2019
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)2019
AZ(Stanton-D)2019
MD(Sarbanes-D)2007
AZ(Gallego-D)2015
CA(Khanna-D/Porter-D)2017/2019
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)2019
AZ(Gallego-D)2015
CA(Khanna-D)2017
MD(Raskin-D)2017
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)2019
AZ(Gallego-D)2015
MD(Raskin-D)2017
CA(Porter-D)2019
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)2019
Which Republican is going to challenge Tester(MT) in 2024?
US Representatives (Zinke-R or Rosendale-R)
Democratic US Representatives from MD likely to get elected the US Senate in 2024 if Cardin retires.
Sarbanes-D(MD-3)
Raskin-D(MD-8)
Trone-D(MD-6)
MD-3
2006 (D+7) 64-34
2008 (D+7) 70-30
2010 (D+7) 61-36
2012 (D+9) 67-30
2014 (D+9) 60-40
2016 (D+9) 63-34
2018 (D+13) 69-28
2020 (D+13) 70-30
2022 (D+10) 60-40
MD-8
2016 (D+11) 61-34
2018 (D+14) 68-30
2020 (D+14) 68-32
2022 (D+29) 80-18
MD-6
2018 (D+6) 59-38
2020 (D+6) 59-39
2022 (D+2) 55-45
Sarbanes-D or Raskin-D
Sarbanes-D
Baltimore
Anne Arundel
Baltimore City
Howard
Harford
Eastern Shore
Raskin-D
Montgomery
Prince George’s
Southern MD
Trone-D
Frederick
Carroll
Western MD
Democratic US Representatives likely to run for the US Senate in 2024.?
AZ(Gallego-D or Stanton-D)
CA(Schiff-D or Khanna-D or Porter-D)
MD(Sarbanes-D or Raskin-D)
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)
Based on seniority
AZ(Gallego-D)2015
CA(Khanna-D)2017
MD(Raskin-D)2017
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)2019
AZ(Gallego-D)2015
MD(Raskin-D)2017
CA(Porter-D)2019
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)2019
CA(Schiff-D)2001
AZ(Gallego-D)2015
MD(Raskin-D)2017
MI(Slotkin-D or Steven-D)
CA(Schiff-D)2001
MD(Sarbanes-D/Raskin-D)2007/2017
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)2019
AZ(Stanton-D)2019
CA(Schiff-D/Khanna-D)2001/2017
MD(Raskin-D)2017
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)2019
AZ(Stanton-D)2019
MD(Sarbanes-D/Raskin-D)2007/2017
CA(Porter-D)2019
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)2019
AZ(Stanton-D)2019
MD(Sarbanes-D)2007
CA(Khanna-D/Porter-D)2017/2019
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)2019
AZ(Stanton-D)2019
MD(Sarbanes-D)2007
AZ(Gallego-D)2015
CA(Khanna-D/Porter-D)2017/2019
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)2019
Democratic US Representatives likely to run for the US Senate in 2024 and get elected.
AZ(Gallego-D or Stanton-D)
CA(Schiff-D or Porter-D or Khanna-D)
DE(Blunt Rochester-D)
ME(Golden-D)
MD(Sarbanes-D or Raskin-D)
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)
VT(Balint-D)
Based on seniority.
CA(Schiff-D) 2001
MD(Sarbanes-D) 2007
AZ(Gallego-D) 2015
DE(Blunt Rochester-D) 2017
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D) 2019
ME(Golden-D) 2019
VT(Balint-D) 2023
CA(Schiff-D)2001
AZ(Gallego-D)2015
MD(Raskin-D) 2017
DE(Blunt Rochester-D) 2017
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D) 2019
ME(Golden-D) 2019
VT(Balint-D) 2023
CA(Schiff-D or Khanna-D)2001 or 2017
MD(Raskin-D)2017
DE(Blunt Rochester-D)2017
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)2019
AZ(Stanton-D)2019
ME(Golden-D)2019
VT(Balint-D)2023
MD(Sarbanes-D or Raskin-D) 2007/2017
DE(Blunt Rochester-D) 2017
CA(Porter-D) 2019
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D) 2019
AZ(Stanton-D) 2019
ME(Golden-D) 2019
VT(Balint-D) 2023
MD(Sarbanes-D)2007
CA(Khanna-D)2017
DE(Blunt Rochester-D)2017
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)2019
AZ(Stanton-D)2019
ME(Golden-D)2019
VT(Balint-D)2023
MD(Sarbanes-D)2007
AZ(Gallego-D)2015
CA(Khanna-D)2017
DE(Blunt Rochester-D)2017
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)2019
ME(Golden-D)2019
VT(Balint-D)2023
MD(Sarbanes-D)2007
AZ(Gallego-D)2015
DE(Blunt Rochester-D)2017
CA(Porter-D)2019
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)2019
ME(Golden-D)2019
VT(Balint-D)2023
AZ(Gallego-D)2015
CA(Khanna-D)2017
MD(Raskin-D)2017
DE(Blunt Rochester-D)2017
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)2019
ME(Golden-D)2019
VT(Balint-D)2023
AZ(Gallego-D)2015
MD(Raskin-D)2017
DE(Blunt Rochester-D)2017
CA(Porter-D)2019
MI(Slotkin-D or Stevens-D)2019
ME(Golden-D)2019
VT(Balint-D)2019
Dana Nessel is not running.
She was on the MSNBC show Ayman. He asked her if she plans on running for Stabenow’s US Senate seat, she said she plans on remaining on her current job.
Who is going to be the Democratic Nominee for the 2024 MD US Senate Election if OPEN?
Jon Cardin-D(Ben Cardin’s nephew)
John Sarbanes-D(Paul Sarbanes’s son)
US Representatives
Jamie Raskin-D
David Trone-D
Glenn Ivey-D running for the US Senate after serving 1 term in the US House will not matter since there were MD US Senators that were elected to the US Senate after serving 1 term in the US House.
1)Glenn Beall Jr. US House from(1969-1971)
Glenn Ivey has served has a Prince George’s County state attorney from 2003 to 2011- 12 years before getting elected to the US House.
Statewide Elected officials Governor Wes Moore,Lt Governor Aruna Miller,
Attorney General Anthony Brown and Comptroller Brooke Lierman will serve out their 1st full 4 year term in their current office.
County Executives
Baltimore County- John Olszewski jr-D
Howard County- Calvin Ball III-D
Prince George’s County- Angela Alsobrooks-D
County Executives Olszewski,Ball,and Alsobrooks have to leave their current office in 2026 due to term limits.
Olszewski is the county executive who is best candidate to run for statewide office in MD
Olszewski won the Baltimore County Executive Election in
2018 by a 58-42 percent margin.
2022 by a 64-36 percent margin.
Olszewski served 2 terms in the MD State House of Delegates from 2006-2015.
Baltimore County is the 3rd largest county in MD.
The best Democratic candidates for the 2024 MD US Senate Election is
1)John Olszewski Jr. because he represents Baltimore and he is 40 years old. Olszewski can serve in the US Senate for more than 5 terms.
2)John Sarbanes because he represents Baltimore,Anne Arundel,Howard,and Carroll county in the US House. His Congressional District MD-3 is now a D+10 according to the 2020 census. Sarbanes won MD-3 by a 20 percent margin in 2022
During the 2010 census, MD-3 was D+13
Sarbanes won MD-3 by a 40 percent margin in 2020,41 percent margin in 2018,29 percent margin in 2016(MD-3 was D+9) 19 percent in 2014, 37 percent margin in 2012, 25 percent margin in 2010(MD-3 was D+6),40 percent margin in 2008 and 30 percent in 2006(MD-3 was D+7).
3)Jamie Raskin won MD-8 which is now a D+29 according to the 2020 by a 62 percent margin,37 percent margin in 2020(MD-8 was D+14),38 percent in 2018, and 26 percent in 2016(MD-8 was D+11)
Sarbanes performed better than Raskin in 2016,2018,and 2020. The 2022 version of MD-8 is way more Democratic than the 2016 to 2020 version of MD-8. Montgomery County is way more Democratic than the Baltimore Area counties.
4)The two Prince George’s County Democrats US Representative Ivey and County Executive Alsobrooks never faced any Republican opposition. Ivey’s MD-4 US House District is D+40 according to the 2022 census.
The Democratic nominee needs to win big in Anne Arundel county,Baltimore County,and Howard County.
Anne Arundel by a 10 percent margin.
Baltimore by a 30 percent margin.
Howard by a 30 percent margin.
Montgomery by a 45 percent margin.
Prince George’s by a 70 percent margin.
Baltimore City by a 70 percent margin.
Frederick by a 5 percent margin.
Charles by a 40 percent margin.
Democrats can’t lose by more than 5 percent margin in
Dorchester
Kent
Somerset
Talbot
Wicomico
Democrats can’t lose by more than 10 percent margin in
Calvert
Harford
St Mary’s
Democrats can’t lose by more than 15 percent margin in
Washington
Worcester
Democrats can’t lose by more than 20 percent margin in
Cecil
Democrats can’t lose by more than 25 percent margin in
Caroline
Carroll
Queen Anne’s
Democrats can’t lose by more than 30 percent margin in
Allegany
Democrats can’t lose by more than 50 percent margin in
Garrett
The Democratic Nominee for every US Senate seat up for re-election in 2024.
Democratic Incumbents running for re-election in 2024.
CT(Murphy-D)
HI(Hirono-D)
ME(King-I)
MA(Warren-D)
MN(Klobuchar-D)
MT(Tester-D)
NV(Rosen-D)
NJ(Menendez-D)
NM(Heinrich-D)
NY(Gillibrand-D)
OH(Brown-D)
PA(Casey-D)
RI(Whitehouse-D)
VA(Kaine-D)
WA(Cantwell-D)
WV(Manchin-D)
WI(Baldwin-D)
Open Democratic held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2024.
AZ(Gallego-D or Stanton-D)
CA(Schiff-D or Porter-D)
DE(Blunt Rochester-D or Carney-D)
MD(Sarbanes-D or Raskin-D)
MI(Stevens-D or Slotkin-D)
Whitmer,Benson,Kildee and Levin have announced they are not running.
I will add Gilchrist and Nessel to the list since both of them are likely to run for Governor.
VT(Krowinski-D or Balint-D) Krowinski’s resume is similar to Balint’s resume.
Balint-D(member of the state senate(2015-2023, majority leader 2017-2021, President Pro Tempore of the VT state senate(2021 to 2023)
Krowinski-D(member of the state house since 2013, served as majority leader from 2017-2021,
Speaker of the VT House of Representatives since 2021.
Democratic nominees in Republican held seats that Democrats might win.
FL(Murphy-D)
MO(Kunce-D)
TX(Allred-D)
Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 MD US Senate Election if Ben Cardin retires and the
Democratic Candidates are US Representatives-
Glenn Ivey- Prince George’s County
Jamie Raskin- Montgomery County
John Sarbanes- Baltimore County.
Glenn Ivey is in his first term as member of the US House of Representatives but he has experience working in the US Senate as counsel to Democratic US Senators in the US Senate Whitewater committee. MD is a Democratic state that a black lawyer turn US House Member from Prince George’s County can win statewide in MD.
Jamie Raskin and John Sarbanes have more that 16 years legislative experience than Glenn Ivey.
Jamie Raskin served 10 years in the State Senate and 6 years in that US House.
John Sarbanes served 16 years in the US House.
What higher statewide elected office in MI are the lower statewide elected officials wil run for?
LG Garlin Gilchrist
SOS Jocelyn Benson
AG Dana Nessel.
Who will run and be the Democratic nominee for the
2024 MI US Senate Election(Stabenow’s open seat)?
2026 MI Governors Election(Whitmer is term limited from running again.)?
2026 MI US Senate Election(Peters might surprise everyone and not seek re-election.)?
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