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nkpolitics1212's Journal
nkpolitics1212's Journal
May 31, 2018

2018 CO Governors Elections and 2020 Colorado US Senate Election- Democratic candidates.

The Democratic Nominee for the 2018 CO Governors Election will either be Jared Polis-D or Cary Kennedy-D. The 2nd place finisher should seek the Democratic Nomination for the 2020 CO US Senate Election assuming Hickenlooper-D or Perlmutter-D doesn't run.

May 30, 2018

2018 US Senate Election. The maximum number of seats Democrats will have after 2018 is 52.

Democrats are favored to pick up AZ(Sinema-D) and NV(Rosen-D) and have a 50-50 chance of picking up TN(Bredesen-D).
Trump State Democratic held US Senate seats likely to stay Democratic- MI(Stabenow-D),MT(Tester-D),OH(Brown-D)PA(Casey-D),WV(Manchin-D)and WI(Baldwin-D)
Trump State Democratic held US Senate seats in the Tossup category- FL(Nelson-D),IN(Donnelly-D),MO(McCaskill-D),and ND(Heitkamp-D).
The minimum number of seats Democrats will have after 2018 is 47.

May 30, 2018

2018 US Governors Election Prediction

AL- Ivey-R
AK- Walker-I
AZ- Ducey-R
AR- Hutchinson-R
CA- Newsom-D
CO- Polis-D
CT- Lamont-D
FL- Graham-D
GA- Cagle-R
HI- Hanabusa-D
ID- Little-R
IL- Pritzker-D
IA- Reynolds-R
KS- Colyer-R
ME- Mills-D
MD- Hogan-R
MA- Baker-R
MI- Whitmer-D
MN- Walz-D
NE- Ricketts-R
NV- Sisolak-D
NH- Sununu-R
NM- Lujan Grisham-D
NY- Cuomo-D
OH- DeWine-R
OK- Lamb-R
OR- Brown-D
PA- Wolf-D
RI- Brown-D
SC- McMaster-R
SD- Noem-R
TN- Black-R
TX- Abbott-R
VT- Scott-R
WI- Walker-R
WY- Gordon-R

May 29, 2018

Is Donald Trump the Michael Scott of the United States Government?

I have been watching the Office reruns on Comedy Central and Donald Trump behaves like Michael Scott.

May 28, 2018

2018 US House Election- How many seats Democrats will net gain.

PA-14 -1
MN-1 -2
MN-8 -3
AZ-2 -2
CA-10 -1
CA-25 0
CA-39 +1
CA-45 +2
CA-48 +3/+2
CA-49 +4/+3
CO-6 +5/+4
FL-26 +6/+5
FL-27 +7/+6
IL-6 +8
IL-12 +9/+7
IA-1 +10/+8
KS-2 +11
KS-3 +12
MI-11 +13/+9
MN-2 +14/+10
MN-3 +15/+11
NE-2 +16
NJ-2 +17/+12
NJ-7 +18/+13
NJ-11 +19/+14
NY-19 +20/+15
NY-22 +21/+16
NC-9 +22
OH-12 +23
PA-1 +24/+17
PA-5 +25/+18
PA-6 +26/+19
PA-7 +27/+20
PA-17 +28/+21
TX-7 +29
TX-23 +30/+22
TX-32 +31
UT-4 +32
VA-10 +33/+23
WA-8 +34/+24
WI-1 +35

May 28, 2018

2018 US Senate Election Ratings.

Republican Held Seats
Lean Democratic Takeover- AZ and NV +2D/-2R
Tossup- TN +2D/-3R
Lean Republican- TX
Likely Republican- MS Special
Solid Republican- MS Regular,NE,UT,and WY
Democratic Held Seats
Tossup- FL,IN,MO,and ND. -2D/-3R
Lean Democratic- MT,OH,and WV
Likely Democratic- MI,MN Special,NJ,PA,and WI
Solid Democratic- CA,CT,DE,HI,ME,MD,MA,MN Regular,NM,NY,RI,VT,and WA.

Democrats have a greater than 50 percent chance of winning all of the Tossup US Senate Races(FL,IN,MO,ND,and TN)

May 28, 2018

2018 US Senate Election- 50-50 Senate/Susan Collins leaves the Republican Party.

Democrats end up with a net gain of 1 seat in the US Senate. 50-50 tie.
Gain AZ and NV, Lose IN
Gain AZ,NV,and TN, Lose IN and ND
Angus King convinces fellow Mainee Susan Collins to become an Independent who caucuses with the Democrats.

May 25, 2018

2018/2024 US Senate Election- If Democrats win every competitive US Senate seat in 2018,

Which Democratic held US Senate seat is vulnerable in 2024?
Safe Democratic seats
AZ(Sinema-D)Republicans will nominate Lesko-R.
CA(OPEN-Feinstein-D) if a Democratic candidate finishes in 1st or 2nd place in the June Primary.
DE(Carper-D)if Carper-D retires Carney-D or Blunt Rochester-D replaces him.
HI(Hirono-D)if Hirono-D retires Gabbard-D is favored to replace her.
ME(King-I)If King-I/D runs again, If King-I/D retires- Slight Democratic.
MD(Cardin-D)if Cardin-D retires Sarbanes-D replaces him.
MA(Warren-D)If Warren-D retires Kennedy the 3rd-D replaces her.
NV(Rosen-D) Sandoval-R or Amodei-R could only make the race competitive.
VT(OPEN Sanders-I/D)
Vulnerable Democratic seats
IN(Donnelly-D)Republican Pick up if Holcomb-R runs.
TN(OPEN Bredesen-D) Republican Pick up.
WV(Manchin-D)Republican Pick up if Manchin-R retires/Justice-R runs.

May 24, 2018

Which GA US Congressional District does Stacey Abrams live in?

If Stacey Abrams loses the 2018 GA Gubernatorial Election, she is likely to run for the US House to succeed either John Lewis(GA-5),Sanford Bishop(GA-2),David Scott(GA-13),or Hank Johnson(GA-4) who are possible retires.
If Stacey Abrams wins the 2018 GA Gubernatorial Election and wins re-election in 2022, she runs for the US Senate in 2026(Assuming David Perdue-R wins re-election in 2020) or 2028(Assuming Johnny Isakson-R wins re-election in 2022 or a Republican succeeds Isakson in 2022).

May 24, 2018

Highly Vulnerable Democratic held US House Seats in 2018.


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