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nkpolitics1212

nkpolitics1212's Journal
nkpolitics1212's Journal
January 29, 2023

How many US Senate seats the Democrats will end up with by 2029?

2024-
Democrats will hold onto AZ(Gallego-D),MI(Slotkin-D),MT(Tester-D),NV(Rosen-D),OH(Brown-D),PA(Casey-D),VA(Kaine-D),and WI(Baldwin-D) and lose WV(Manchin-D). 50D 50R.

2026-
Democrats will hold onto CO(Hickenlooper-D or Polis-D),GA(Ossoff-D),MI(Peters-D),MN(Smith-D),NH(Shaheen-D or Pappas-D),NM(Lujan-D),and VA(Warner-D) and pick up NC(Jackson-D)
51D 49R

2028-
Democrats will hold onto AZ(Kelly-D),GA(Warnock-D),NV(Cortez Masto-D),NH(Hassan-D),and PA(Fetterman-D) and pick up NC(Nickel-D) and WI(Kaul-D or Rodriguez-D) 53D 47R.

January 29, 2023

US Senate seats up for re-election in 2024 that the Democrats are most likely to win.

CA(Schiff-D or Porter-D) both will finish in 1st and 2nd place in the open blanket primary.
HI(Hirono-D)
MA(Warren-D)
VT(Sanders-I or Balint-D)
MD(Cardin-D or Sarbanes-D)
RI(Whitehouse-D)
NY(Gillibrand-D)
DE(Carper-D)
MN(Klobuchar-D)
CT(Murphy-D)
WA(Cantwell-D)
NM(Heinrich-D)
NJ(Menendez-D)
ME(King-I)
VA(Kaine-D)
NV(Rosen-D)
PA(Fetterman-D)
WI(Baldwin-D)
MI(Slotkin-D or Gilchrist-D)
AZ(Gallego-D)
OH(Brown-D)
MT(Tester-D)

January 29, 2023

US Senate seats up for re-election in 2024 that the Democrats are most likely going to win.

CA(Schiff-D or Porter-D)
HI(Hirono-D)
MA(Warren-D)
VT(Sanders-D or Gray-D)
MD(Cardin-D or Sarbanes-D)
RI(Whitehouse-D)
NY(Gillibrand-D)
DE(Carper-D)
CT(Murphy-D)
MN(Klobuchar-D)
NM(Heinrich-D)
WA(Cantwell-D)
NJ(Menendez-D)
ME(King-I)
VA(Kaine-D)
PA(Casey-D)
NV(Rosen-D)
WI(Baldwin-D)
MI(Slotkin-D or Gilchrist-D)
MT(Tester-D)
AZ(Gallego-D)
OH(Brown-D)








January 28, 2023

2024 Democratic US Senate Nominees from each state.

AZ(Gallego-D)
CA(Schiff-D or Porter-D)
CT(Murphy-D)
DE(Carper-D)
FL(Murphy-D)
HI(Hirono-D)
IN(Donnelly-D or Hogsett-D)
ME(King-I)
MD(Cardin-D or Sarbanes-D)
MA(Warren-D)
MI(Gilchrist-D or Slotkin-D)
MN(Klobuchar-D)
MS(Pinkins-D)
MO(Kunce-D)
MT(Tester-D)
NE regular(Shelton-D)
NE special(Unknown)
NV(Rosen-D)
NJ(Menendez-D)
NM(Heinrich-D)
NY(Gillibrand-D)
ND(Hedger-D)
OH(Brown-D)
PA(Casey-D)
RI(Whitehouse-D)
TN(Unknown)
TX(Allred-D or Castro-D)
UT(Unknown)
VT(Sanders-I or Zuckerman-D)
VA(Kaine-D)
WA(Cantwell-D)
WV(Manchin-D)
WI(Baldwin-D)
WY(Unknown)

Democrats are most likely going to win
CA(Schiff-D or Porter-D) both will finish in 1st and 2nd place in the OPEN blanket primary.
HI(Hirono-D)
MD(Cardin-D or Sarbanes-D)
VT(Sanders-I or Zuckerman-D)
NY(Gillibrand-D)
RI(Whitehouse-D)
MA(Warren-D)
DE(Carper-D)
MN(Klobuchar-D)
CT(Murphy-D)
WA(Cantwell-D)
NM(Heinrich-D)
NJ(Menendez-D)
ME(King-I)
VA(Kaine-D)
NV(Rosen-D)
PA(Casey-D)
WI(Baldwin-D)
MI(Slotkin-D or Gilchrist-D)
AZ(Gallego-D)
OH(Brown-D)
MT(Tester-D)







January 27, 2023

Longest Serving US Senators from each state.

AL(Shelby-R)
AK(Stevens-R)
AZ(Hayden-D)
AR(McClellan-D)
CA(Feinstein-D)
CO(Bennet-D)
CT(Dodd-D)
DE(Biden-D)
FL(Fletcher-D)
GA(Russell-D)
HI(Inouye-D)
ID(Borah-R)
IL(Durbin-D)
IN(Lugar-R)
IA(Grassley-R)
KS(Capper-R)
KY(McConnell-R)
LA(Long-D)
ME(Collins-R)
MD(Mikulski-D)
MA(Kennedy-D)
MI(Levin-D)
MN(Nelson-R)
MS(Stennis-D)
MO(Cockrell-D)
MT(Baucus-D)
NE(Curtis-R)
NV(Reid-D)
NH(Gallinger-R)
NJ(Lautenberg-D
NM(Domenici-R)
NY(Schumer-D)
NC(Helms-R)
ND(Young-R)
OH(Glenn-D)
OK(Inhofe-R)
OR(Wyden-D)
PA(Specter-R/D)
RI(Pell-D)
SC(Thurmond-R)
SD(Mundt-R)
TN(McKellar-D)
TX(Sheppard-D)
UT(Hatch-R)
VT(Leahy-D)
VA(Byrd-D)
WA(Magnuson-D)
WV(Byrd-D)
WI(Proxmire-D)
WY(Warren-R)

January 27, 2023

4 MD US House Members likely to run for the US Senate in 2024 if OPEN seat are in their 60's.

John Sarbanes) 62 years old in 11/2024.
Jamie Raskin) 61 years old in 11/2024.
David Trone) 69 years old in 11/2024.
Glenn Ivey) 63 years old in 11/2024.

I expect Sarbanes,Raskin,and Ivey to serve 3 to 4 terms in the US Senate.
I expect Trone to serve 2 to 3 terms in the US Senate.

January 26, 2023

If Jeff Jackson(NC) decides to run for the US Senate, What year will he run in?

2026 against Tillis-R?
2028 against Budd-R?

Democrats get Ross-D to run in 2026 and Jackson-D to run in 2028.

Josh Stein-D gets elected Governor of NC in 2024.
Deborah Ross-D gets elected to the US Senate in 2026.
Jeff Jackson-D gets elected to the US Senate in 2028.

If Jackson-D runs for the US Senate in 2026 and gets elected, Which Democrat will run for the US Senate in 2028?
Don Davis-D or Wiley Nickel-D?



January 26, 2023

Besides Stabenow(MI), What other Democratic US Senators up in 2024 retires voluntarily?

DE(Carper-D) Blunt Rochester-D
MD(Cardin-D) Raskin-D or Sarbanes-D
RI(Whitehouse-D) Ciciline-D
VT(Sanders-I) Balint-D

Sinema(AZ) and Feinstein(CA) will retire or lose re-election.
Democrats need Tester(MT) and Manchin(WV) to seek re-election in 2024 otherwise the Republicans will win those seats.

January 26, 2023

Mark Kelly's 2020 and 2022 AZ US Senate Election victories.

In 2020 against Martha McSally, Kelly-D won by a 51.2-48.8 percent margin.
In 2022 against Blake Masters, Kelly-D won by a 51.4-46.5 percent margin.
The Libertarian nominee for the 2022 AZ US Senate Election Marc Victor received 2.1 percent of the popular vote.
Other AZ US Senate Elections where 3rd party nominees made a decent showing.
2018 Green(Angela Green) 2.4 percent. Total 2.4 percent.
2016 Green(Gary Swing)5.5 percent. Total 5.5 percent.
2012 Libertarian(Marc Victor)4.6 percent. Total 4.6 percent.
2010 Libertarian(David Nolan)4.7 percent. Green(Jerry Joslyn)1.4 percent. Total 6.1 percent.
2006 Libertarian(Richard Mack)3.2 percent. Total 3.2 percent
2004 Libertarian(Ernest Hancock)3 percent. Total 3 percent
2000 Independent(William Toel)7.8 percent. Green(Vance Hansen)7.8 percent.Libertarian(Barry Hess)5.1 percent. Total 20.7 percent

Kyrsten Sinema will receive 5 percent of the popular vote.
Ruben Gallego will receive 50 percent of the popular vote.
The Republican will receive 45 percent of the popular vote.



January 25, 2023

I am very anxious to see Kelly,Giffords,and Stanton endorse Gallego in the 2024 AZ US Senate Race.

Kelly,Giffords,and Stanton will increase Gallego’s chances in winning the 2024 AZ US Senate Race by taking away any incentive from Sinema to stay in the race. The moderate Democrats are going to support Gallego.

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