nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's Journal2024 US Senate Election- Rank which Democratic incumbent wins by a wide to narrow margin?
MN(Klobuchar),NJ(Menendez),NM(Heinrich),VA(Kaine),and WA(Cantwell)
CA(Schiff)
HI(Hirono)
VT(Sanders)
MA(Warren)
NY(Gillibrand)
MD(Cardin)
RI(Whitehouse)
CT(Murphy)
DE(Carper)
MN(Klobuchar)
WA(Cantwell)
NM(Heinrich)
ME(King)
VA(Kaine)
NJ(Menendez)
NV(Rosen)
PA(Casey)
WI(Baldwin)
MI(Slotkin)
AZ(Gallego)
OH(Brown)
MT(Tester)
WV(Manchin)
Republican incumbents that are considered vulnerable if Democrats nominate the best candidate.
FL(Stephanie Murphy)
MO(Lucas Kunce)
TX(Colin Allred)
Is Brian Kemp of GA a future US Senate candidate in 2026 or 2028?
If not, Here are the Republicans that would run in 2026 and/2028.
Taylor Greene
Loudermilk
Collins
Clyde
Scott
McCormick
Ferguson
Jones
Carr
Ossoff is up for re-election in 2026.
Warnock is up for re-election in 2028.
2026 is a midterm election year but unlike in 2022, the 2026 GA Governors Election is an open seat election. How would Carolyn Bourdeaux do if she decides to run? Bourdeaux was a victim of Republican gerrymandering. Ossoff is favored to win re-election in 2026.
2028 is a Presidential Election year. The 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee will narrowly win GA like they did in 2020 and 2024. Warnock is favored to win re-election in 2028.
2024 US Senate Elections in the states that the Democratic nominee will over perform Biden.
AZ(Gallego-D)
CT(Murphy-D)
DE(Carper-D or Blunt Rochester-D)
FL(Murphy-D)
HI(Hirono-D)
IN(Donnelly-D or Hogsett-D)
ME(King-I)
MD(Cardin-D or Sarbanes-D)
MA(Warren-D)
MI(Slotkin-D)
MN(Klobuchar-D)
MO(Kunce-D)
MT(Tester-D)
NV(Rosen-D)
NM(Heinrich-D)
NY(Gillibrand-D)
OH(Brown-D)
PA(Casey-D)
RI(Whitehouse-D)
TX(Allred-D or Castro-D)
VT(Sanders-I or Ballint-D)
VA(Kaine-D)
WA(Cantwell-D)
WV(Manchin-D)
WI(Baldwin-D)
If Durbin(D-IL) decides not to seek re-election to the US Senate in 2026, Does Giannoulias run?
Giannoulias ran for Obama’s former IL US Senate seat in 2010 after serving 1 term as IL Treasurer. Giannoulias lost that race by a narrow margin to Mark Kirk-R. The reasons for Giannoulias defeat is Republican wave and Blagojevich.
12 years after Giannoulias 2010 US Senate defeat, Giannoulias was elected IL Secretary of State in 2022. Giannoulias won the 2022 IL Secretary of State Election by a 10.5 percent margin.
Does Giannoulias make a 2nd run for the US Senate in 2026 if Durbin does not seek re-election?
Does Giannoulias stand a chance of winning the 2026 IL US Senate Election? The Republicans don’t have a top tier moderate Republican in 2026 like they did in 2010.
Democratic Nominee for open seat US Senate Elections in 2026.
IL(Durbin-D) Raoul-D,Mendoza-D,or Frerichs-D. Does Giannoullias-D going to make a 2nd run for the US Senate?
RI(Reed-D) Neronha-D RI AG Neronha is term limited from seeking re-election to a 3rd term for RI AG. If McKee-D decides not seek re-election to a 2nd full 4 year term for Governor and Neronha-D decides to run for Governor. Magaziner-D is the frontrunner for the US Senate.
MA(Markey-D) Trahan-D,Auchincloss-D,Moulton-D, or Pressley-D.
CO(Hickenlooper-D) Polis-D. If Polis does not run then it will be either Neguse-D or Crow-D.
Democrats guide to remaining in the majority of the US Senate in 2024 is to win every US Senate seat
up for re-election in 2024 that is held by Democrats. The Democratic held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2024 from most to least vulnerable are
1)WV(Manchin-D)
2)MT(Tester-D)
3)OH(Brown-D)
4)AZ(Sinema-I/Gallego-D)
5)MI(OPEN Stabenow-D/Slotkin-D)
6)WI(Baldwin-D)
7)PA(Casey-D)
8)NV(Rosen-D)
9)NJ(Menendez-D)
10)VA(Kaine-D)
11)ME(King-I)
12)NM(Heinrich-D)
13)DE(Carper/Blunt Rochester-D)
14)CT(Murphy-D)
15)WA(Cantwell-D)
16)MN(Klobuchar-D)
17)RI(Whitehouse-D)
18)MD(Cardin-D/Sarbanes-D)
19)NY(Gillibrand-D)
20)MA(Warren-D)
21)VT(Sanders-I/Ballint-D)
22)HI(Hirono-D)
23)CA(OPEN Feinstein-D/Schiff-D)
US Senate downgrades and upgrades.
AL(Jones to Tubberville)
AK(Begich to Sullivan)
AR(Bumpers to Lincoln to Boozman)
AR(Mark Pryor to Tom Cotton)
FL(Graham to Martinez to Lemieux to Rubio)
FL(Nelson to Scott)
IN(Bayh to Coats to Young)
IN(Donnelly to Braun)
IA(Culver to Grassley)
IA(Harkin to Ernst)
KS(Dole to Frahm to Brownback to Moran)
KS(Kassebaum to Roberts to Marshall)
KY(Ford to Bunning to Paul)
KY(Huddleston to McConnell)
LA(Long to Breaux to Vitter to Kennedy)
LA(Johnston to Landrieu to Cassidy)
ME(Hathaway to Cohen to Collins)
MS(Stennis to Lott to Wicker)
MS(Eastland to Cochran to Hyde Smith)
MO(McCaskill to Hawley)
MO(Eagleton to Bond to Blunt to Schmitt)
MT(Baucus to Daines)
NE(Kerrey to Nelson to Fischer)
NE(Exon to Hagel to Johanns to Sasse to Ricketts)
NC(Hagen to Tillis)
NC(Edwards to Burr to Budd)
ND(Dorgan to Hoeven)
ND(Heitkemp to Cramer)
OH(Glenn to Voinovich to Portman to Vance)
OK(Boren to Inhofe to McMullin)
SC(Thurmond to Graham)?
SC(Hollings to DeMint to Scott)?
SD(Daschle to Thune)
SD(Johnson to Rounds)
TN(Sasser to Frist to Corker to Blackburn)
TX(Johnson to Blakley to Tower to Gramm to Cornyn)
TX(Yarborough to Bentsen to Krueger to Hutchison to Cruz)
UT(Garn to Bennett to Lee)
WV(Byrd to Goodwin to Manchin)
WV(Rockefeller to Capito)
WI(Feingold to Johnson)
WY(Simpson to Enzi to Lummis)
Upgrades
AZ(McSally to Kelly)
CA(Seymour to Feinstein)
CO(Gardner to Hickenlooper)
CO(Campbell to Salazar to Bennet)
CT(Lieberman to Murphy)
DE(Roth to Carper)
GA(Perdue to Ossoff)
GA(Isakson to Loeffler to Warnock)
IL(Kirk to Duckworth)
MA(Brown to Warren)
MI(Abraham to Stabenow)
MT(Burns to Tester)
NV(Ensign to Heller to Rosen)
NV(Laxalt to Reid to Cortez Masto)
NH(Ayotte to Hassan)
NH(Smith to Sununu to Shaheen)
NY(D’Amato to Schumer)
OH(DeWine to Brown)
OR(Packwood to Wyden)
OR(Hatfield to Smith to Merkley)
PA(Santorum to Casey)
PA(Toomey to Fetterman)
RI(Chaffee to Whitehouse)
VT(Stafford to Jeffords to Sanders)
VA(John Warner to Mark Warner)
VA(Allen to Webb to Kaine)
WA(Adams to Murray)
WA(Gorton to Cantwell)
The likely Democratic nominee for the 2026 CO US Senate Election if Hickenlooper doesn't run.
1)Polis
2)Weiser or Griswold. One runs for Governor/The other runs for the US Senator.
3)Neguse
4)Crow
5)Pettersen
Colorado US Congressional Districts from most rural to least rural
CO-3(Boebert-R)
CO-4(Buck-R)
CO-2(Neguse-D)
CO-5(Lamborn-D)
CO-6(Crow-D)
CO-7(Pettersen-D)
CO-8(Caraveo-D)
CO-1(DeGette-D)
Colorado US Congressional Districts from most non white minority majority to the least most non white minority majority.
CO-1(DeGette-D)
CO-8(Caraveo-D)
CO-6(Crow-D)
CO-7(Pettersen-D)
CO-3(Boebert-R)
CO-5(Lamborn-R)
CO-4(Buck-R)
CO-2(Neguse-D)
Neguse’s CO-2 US Congressional District is a majority white rural district that is Solid Democratic.
Boulder is 89 percent white.
Clear Creek is 96 percent white.
Eagle is 85 percent white.
Gilpin is 94 percent white.
Grand is 95 percent white.
Jackson is 96 percent white.
Larimer is 91 percent white.
Routt is 97 percent white.
Summit is 92 percent white.
CO-2 is 83 percent white.
OH-13 is 81 percent white.
IL-14 is 79 percent white.
WA-10 is 76 percent white.
CT-5 is 71 percent white.
MO-5 is 64 percent white.
MN-5 is 64 percent white.
IN-7 is 54 percent white.
OH-3 is 53 percent white.
NC-4 is 53 percent white.
VA-4 is 51 percent white.
Besides Joe Neguse-CO-2,Emilia Sykes-OH-13,Lauren Underwood-IL-14, and Jahana Hayes-CT-5 are strong Democratic candidates for statewide office. Hayes-CT-5 won re-election by a less than 1 percent. Neguse-CO-2 won by a landslide margin.
I like to see Emilia Sykes-OH-13 run against JD Vance in 2028.
Hickenlooper-CO US Senate successor in 2026/2032? Cardin-MD US Senate successor in 2024/2030?
2026 CO US Senate Election Democratic Nominee?
Polis-D will be completing his 2nd term as CO Governor. Cannot run for Governor of CO again in 2026 due to term limits.
Neguse-D if Polis-D does not run.
2032 CO US Senate Election Democratic Nominee?
Neguse-D
Polis-D will be former Governor of CO 6 years after leaving the CO Governors office.
2024 MD US Senate Election Democratic Nominee?
Sarbanes-D
2030 MD US Senate Election Democratic Nominee?
Sarbanes-D
Moore-D will be completing his 2nd term as MD Governor. Cannot run for Governor of MD again in 2030 due to term limits.
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