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Gender: Male
Hometown: Bay Area, CA
Home country: USA
Current location: AZ
Member since: Wed Feb 1, 2017, 04:51 AM
Number of posts: 9,928

Journal Archives

Any Smarties from the AM/Lunch crew wanna try Mr. L's Probability Problem?


Yes, I know this is a shameless bump

I never do this, so ...

Mr. L's Probability 'Box' Quiz: (Answer revealed, DU gets a 100% on the quiz)

There are three boxes, each with one drawer on each of two sides

+ drawer 1 +++ drawer 2 +

+ drawer 3 +++ drawer 4 +

+ drawer 5 +++ drawer 6 +

You are told each of the 6 drawers contains either a gold or silver coin, and that there are 3 of each coin in the drawers

A random drawer is opened, let's say it's drawer #3, and one of the coins is found.

You may now choose any of the other 5 drawers, and if the coin in the one you choose matches the original choice (i.e. both are gold or silver), you may keep both coins ... if not you get nothing.

Which drawer do you pick?

Let's let the poll run for a bit before explaining the answer

Since we're doing Math Games tonight ... how about this ... The Lets Make A Deal quandary!


And try not give too much away in the comments if you KNOW the answer ... just make it sound like a guess til some people have a shot at it

Here's the math problem:

You are a contestant, Dolores, on the old game show, Monty Hall's Let's Make a Deal.

You reach the finale, where 3 doors are presented, and Monty tells you that behind the 3 doors are: A NEW CAR, A Goat, and an IRS Audit.

You're instructed to pick one of the 3 doors, and you do so. Say, it's door #1.

At this point, Monty opens either Door #2, revealing the Goat.

At this point, he says "You know Dolores, I like you. I'm going to give you a chance to change your mind and choose Door #3 ... Would you like to do that?"

Now ... there are two assumptions you should make in solving this problem:
1) Monty KNOWS what's behind each door, and does not want you to win the car, for whatever reason, thus will never reveal immediately that you've already won after your first pick.
2) Monty does not have a choice but to play the game in this fashion, it's just 'how it's done' in the game (which it really wasn't in the actual show, but this is for fun).

Oh, and
3) Winning a car is preferable to an IRS audit

Answer in the poll ... do you change your pick from #1 to #3?

And in the comments, explain why (without too much detail until some people have a chance to play )?

Any news of the ethnic breakdown of victims in El Paso? We know that Dayton was 6/9 AA folks

Seems odd we haven't (or at least I haven't) seen any reports of who was killed in El Paso ... not really ANYTHING about who they were.

Dayton was obviously later and yet by Sunday PM we knew the 6/9 number, so ...

Have I just missed it or has El Paso police still not released any such info? Maybe having trouble contacting next of kin for everyone, possibly?

r.e.m. - king of birds (studio-1987) singer ... sing me a song!

Missed 1 Sgt ;) My fate was sealed before I met you darling ... I was 1/2 down a shallow grave

so little room for you to catch me falling ... still you took the little love I saved ....

john hiatt & the goners - riding with the king (live-2000-ish?) B.B. & Clapton's cover was good, but

It's not better than John's original ... esp. not when played live with the legendary Sonny Landreth ripping it up on the Slide (or Ry Cooder on the studio version)!

lyle lovett & rickie lee jones - north dakota (live ... guessing 1994?) - drop dead gorgeous

I saw him on the this tour at teh Paramount Theater, Oakland, CA. Sadly no guest spot from Rickie that show, but it was still FANTASTIC. Joshua Judges Ruth is a phenomenal record ... and Lyle and His Large Band are consummate pros ... always put on an incredible show.

I remember in the morning waking up
With your arms around my head.
You told me, "You can sleep forever
And I'll still hold you then."

lyle lovett - tiny desk concert (live-2012) cause it's never a bad time to hear some Lyle ...

you know those songs that just wreck your s**t sometimes, and you love 'em for it?

More recently Phoebe, but going back a LONG time Conor (Bright Eyes) have been doing that to me. Their new collab is the bee's knee's to this old indie/americana fan ... not sure which of the two wrote it cause either easily could've, but regardless this tune is just ... devastating.

Are you kidding me with this sh*t:

My arms are strapped in a straightjacket
So I couldn't save those TV refugees

And Phoebe is a Goddess ...

From Jan 2019, right after the record dropped ...

April 2019, after some practice and work on the song ... both versions awesome ...

My telephone, it doesn't have a camera
If it did I'd take a picture of myself
If it did I'd take a picture of the water
And the man on the offramp
Holding up the sign that's asking me for help

I got a job and I'll work here for the summer
I fold the towels and set them by the pool
Everyone looks happy with each other
'Til they step away and say the thing they really meant
They always sound so cruel

I didn't know what I was in for
When I signed up for that run
There's no way I'm curing cancer
But I'll sweat it out
I feel so proud now for all the good I've done

I know a girl who owns a boutique in the city
Selling clothes to the fashionably late
Says she cries at the news but doesn't really
'Cause there's too much fun, too much time
And too much plastic money to be made

I didn't know what I was in for
When they took my belt and strings
They told me I'd gone crazy
My arms are strapped in a straight jacket
So I couldn't save those TV refugees

When they're on their backs
In a bloody bath
Full of sarin gas
On a screen

I didn't know what I was in for
When I laid out in the sun
We get burned for being honest
I've really never done ...
Anything ...
For anyone

To fall asleep I need white noise to distract me
Otherwise I have to listen to me think
Otherwise I pace around
Hold my breath
Let it out
Sit on the couch and think about
How living's just a promise that I made
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