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Buckeyeblue

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Member since: Thu Feb 2, 2017, 04:31 PM
Number of posts: 1,563

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The Republican End Game Speculation

The Republicans have two big problems that they have manage simultaneously.

1. 45 is just a legal mess. And his trade policies are out of step with the "free" trade policies they have always pushed. And he has an unpleasant personality that has pushed some donors away. He cost the Republicans the House. His legal problems are threatening to dominate the news cycle for the foreseeable future.

2. 45 has a niche base of frustrated white working class people and a very loyal following of white supremacist. This group allows them to have comfortable majorities in Ohio and Florida and remain competitive in Michigan and Wisconsin.

The complication:

Republicans could easily turn on 45 right now. If they couldn't force resignation, they could cooperate with the impeachment/conviction process. And that would solve problem #1, but the risk would be 45's base. If they decided to take out their anger on Republicans, it could dramatically weaken them in 2020.

So the Republicans are going to play this tight. If they stick with 45 and refuse to hold him accountable, they will more than likely lose the presidency. But they can probably hold onto the Senate. Which means they can protect the SC majority and not allow any other judicial appointments. And then spend the 4 years after 2020 trying to repair their image, all while blocking the Democratic agenda.

They will stick to this policy as long as they think it is workable. At the point in time that the legal pile becomes too high or there is a crazy smoking gun that is released (like the Pee Pee tape), they can quickly pivot and work out an impeachment/conviction deal with the Democrats. Or work out a deal with 45 to resign (it would have to give him everything).

As was discussed in some threads yesterday, if the Republicans seem unwilling to budge from their plan, Democrats will have an existential decision to make: do they impeach and force the Senate to hold a trial and go on record about 45' crimes? Depending on the evidence they might just have too. If it gets to that, the Republican line dance will be interesting to watch.

Thoughts?


What about this impeachment scenario (feel free to tell me I'm nuts)

Let's say the repugs now consider 45 to be a liability. After all, it was the largest number of house pick ups for the Dems since the early 70's. With close races in traditionally red states. They were willing to play along with his crazy when he won because they could push through their agenda. But now nothing is going to get through.

So then they have to think what are the options to be rid of him. They could do nothing and let him lose in 2020. Or they could get rid of him. But they have to act quickly. If the House voted for articles of impeachment, the repugs in the Senate could have their safest 20-25 senators vote with the dems.

There would be initial uproar from the deplorables. But that's where Pence comes in. For repugs he is perfect. He will be a lame duck. He cannot win the nomination. He will be able to pacify the evangelical crowd. And the rank and file repugs can go about repairing the party.

Fast forward a year and a half later, you've got Jeb Bush accepting the party's nomination and telling traditional repugs and swing voters that voted Dem in 2018 that it's time to come back home.

This scenario only works if it is acted on quickly. It also worries me. I wonder if Dems have played this out and if that is why many in the leadership are saying that they are not looking to impeach.

Impeachment would let them off the hook. Make them dance with the one that brought them.

Trump is trying to bait the left into doing something stupid

Trump is more of a counter puncher. If he has to initiate he does it with a sucker punch. I think his latest rhetoric is to try to get someone on the left to do something stupid, to incite violance of some sort, so that he can react to it.

If we retake the house we should simultaneously

Investigate the Trump and Bush administrations. Leave no stone unturned. Let the people know who these people are. Don't allow Bush to normalize himself by pointing to Trump. One is as bad as the other.

How about this for a trade off...

45 seems to be into making deals. Let's trade funding for the wall for the Supreme Court pick. We can even go with Garland. If 45 nominates Garland, Dems will pass wall funding.

I know it's not ideal but if we can win in 2020, we can then stop the wall. If we can't win in 2020, Ginsberg's seat will likely come open during the term, at some point, so we'll be toast either way.

As unappealing as it is, I think it is worth doing.
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