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Buckeyeblue's Journal
Buckeyeblue's Journal
December 9, 2018

The Republican End Game Speculation

The Republicans have two big problems that they have manage simultaneously.

1. 45 is just a legal mess. And his trade policies are out of step with the "free" trade policies they have always pushed. And he has an unpleasant personality that has pushed some donors away. He cost the Republicans the House. His legal problems are threatening to dominate the news cycle for the foreseeable future.

2. 45 has a niche base of frustrated white working class people and a very loyal following of white supremacist. This group allows them to have comfortable majorities in Ohio and Florida and remain competitive in Michigan and Wisconsin.

The complication:

Republicans could easily turn on 45 right now. If they couldn't force resignation, they could cooperate with the impeachment/conviction process. And that would solve problem #1, but the risk would be 45's base. If they decided to take out their anger on Republicans, it could dramatically weaken them in 2020.

So the Republicans are going to play this tight. If they stick with 45 and refuse to hold him accountable, they will more than likely lose the presidency. But they can probably hold onto the Senate. Which means they can protect the SC majority and not allow any other judicial appointments. And then spend the 4 years after 2020 trying to repair their image, all while blocking the Democratic agenda.

They will stick to this policy as long as they think it is workable. At the point in time that the legal pile becomes too high or there is a crazy smoking gun that is released (like the Pee Pee tape), they can quickly pivot and work out an impeachment/conviction deal with the Democrats. Or work out a deal with 45 to resign (it would have to give him everything).

As was discussed in some threads yesterday, if the Republicans seem unwilling to budge from their plan, Democrats will have an existential decision to make: do they impeach and force the Senate to hold a trial and go on record about 45' crimes? Depending on the evidence they might just have too. If it gets to that, the Republican line dance will be interesting to watch.


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