Progressive2020
Progressive2020's JournalBiden Versus Bernie
I think that the contest is getting down to the two of them. I like them both, for different reasons. Bernie because of his Progressive Policies and his fight for Working Class People. Biden for his steadiness, his years of experience in both Foreign and Domestic Policy, and the fact that he will take the fight directly to Trump.
I honestly would prefer Bernie based upon his policy proposals alone. I do agree with some people who worry that Sanders has too much baggage and will not be the strongest candidate against Trump. Biden on the other hand is more moderate than I would like, but he is the stronger candidate to take the fight to Trump.
For me I like Sanders but he is the riskier candidate. I am not sure that we can afford the risk given the terrible possibility of four more years of Trump. Joe Biden is the safer candidate. He might not be exciting younger voters with a grand progressive vision like Bernie, but Joe has experience, gravitas, and security on his side.
So, even though Joe and Bernie are both very different kinds of candidates, I like them both for different reasons. Bernie might be more exciting, but I think Bernie is the riskier candidate and Joe is the safer candidate. And we must defeat Trump by all means. So that is my two cents.
A Prediction
It is hard to predict the future, but here are a few ideas. Right now, it is a contest between Bernie and Biden, maybe with Bloomberg thrown in as a wild card. That said, I see three main possible outcomes- 1) Bernie wins a majority of delegates before the Convention, 2) Biden wins a majority of delegates before the Convention, or 3) Bernie and Joe both split the delegates fairly evenly, both have a plurality, neither has a majority.
[Correction- what I meant was that neither candidate would earn enough delegates to secure the nomination before the Convention.]
I think that the third option right now is the most likely. If Biden and Bernie both have a lot of delegates, but neither has a clear majority, the Convention will decide who the candidate will be. My prediction is if this happens, the first ballot at the Convention will confirm neither candidate.
Once delegates are released and Super Delegates are in play for the second ballot, Biden will win on the second ballot. He will then become the nominee. Then a lot of the Bernie supporters will be upset, yet still many of them will vote for Joe in the General Election. So, my prediction is that Joe will get the nomination, and then will go on to defeat Trump, whether narrowly or decisively, I do not yet know. We shall see.
[Edited]
Hypothetical- Bernie And Biden
If Biden and Bernie both split the delegates and it goes to a brokered convention, do you think that Joe would agree to put Medicare For All in the Democratic Platform to get Bernie's support? Do you think that Biden and Bernie might come to some sort of détente, or will it just be bad blood and a fight? Or could they compromise at some point?
Social Democracy
I think that many Americans have an aversion to the term "socialism", but not to actual social programs. The older generation has Social Security and Medicare, and they love those programs. It could be argued that those two well-loved programs are socialist programs. It depends on your terminology. I personally would rather refer to them as "progressive" programs.
The term "socialism" has been demonized in American politics for decades and decades. They called FDR a socialist when he implemented Social Security. They called Social Security a "socialist" program to demonize it. They did the same with LBJ and Medicare later on.
These types of programs are no different from Sander's Medicare For All. They are social welfare programs that a majority of people want. They just do not like to call them "socialist", as that term has been demonized. Maybe better to use the term "progressive" for programs that people love and want, like Social Security, like Medicare. And those programs are overwhelmingly liked by the older generation as well as many younger demographics. For example, my Step-father is a Republican, but God forbid that you try to take his Social Security away.
Also, I have seen some people compare Democratic Socialism to Communism. This is a smear campaign against Social Democracy. Social Democracy and Communism are two entirely different things. Republicans continue to equate them, but it is a false equivalency. China and Russia in the 20th Century were not Socialist Countries- they were Communist Dictatorships. They are nothing like Social Democracies. Social Democracies are countries like Denmark and Norway which have democracy and strong private sectors that pay taxes to support a strong social safety net. Universal Health Care, Child Care, Free University, Good Pay, Long Vacations, etc.
This is what Social Democracy proposes. Comparing that to Totalitarian Communist Dictatorships shows a profound misunderstanding of what Socialism/Social Democracy is. Communism has no democracy and no private sector. Social Democracy has both a strong private sector and a democracy with a strong social safety net. Social Democracy and Communism are night and day, no matter how much propaganda says that they are the same. They are nothing alike.
So, Social Democracy and Communism are night and day and are not the same thing. To put forward that false equivalency is to help the Republicans, who like to smear any social program as some form of communism. Universal Health Care and Free University are socialist ideas, not communist ones. Socialist societies are democracies with private sectors and safety nets. Communist societies are totalitarian societies with no democracy, no private sector, and no freedom. Do not confuse the two.
Bloomberg's Error
I think Bloomberg's strategy of skipping South Carolina and focusing on Super Tuesday will ultimately result in his failure. Bloomberg was positioning himself to be the moderate, anti-Bernie candidate. He would be fighting for this crown mainly with Joe Biden. Now, with some polls showing a Biden surge in South Carolina, and no Bloomberg in that contest, Biden has a real chance. If Biden takes the lion's share of the victory there and shows that he can beat Sanders, it will resurrect Biden's flagging campaign after losses in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.
If this happens, if Biden wins South Carolina and holds Bernie down to low numbers there, Biden's campaign will be re-energized for Super Tuesday. Then it may well turn out to be a contest between Biden and Bernie. If Bloomberg had gotten on the ballot in South Carolina, he might have been able to stop Biden there. Now, with Biden unopposed by Bloomberg in South Carolina, Biden may be positioned for a significant win in that state. And that could propel Biden into the Super Tuesday contest as the Democratic alternative to Bernie. It might be too late at that point for Bloomberg, and the contest will essentially be between Biden and Sanders.
After Trump
When Trump is out of office, what will become of him? My thinking is that there might be civil and criminal investigations into him and what he has done in his corrupt administration. It seems established policy that a sitting President can not be indicted, only impeached.
I think that once Trump is out of office many prosecutors in some jurisdictions will be off of the leash. They will be investigating Trump and his corrupt cronies like Jared Kushner and others for a variety of possible crimes. So Trump might be investigated, maybe prosecuted at some point.
Trump's "administration" has been the most corrupt in American History. He might still have to answer for that corruption. The only figure like him in American history is Boss Tweed, who ran the corrupt Tammany Hall Political Machine in New York City in the 19th Century. It is worth noting that this formerly powerful figure in American politics ended up dying in a jail cell in New York City. So I wonder what your views are on what will become of Trump after he is out of the White House?
Medicare For All
A recent article on Salon shows that Multiple Studies assert that Medicare For All is much cheaper than the Public Option pushed by some Moderates-
https://www.salon.com/2020/multiple-studies-show-medicare-for-all-would-be-cheaper-than-public-option-pushed-by-moderates/
[Sorry, I am having trouble with the link. If you go to Salon and search "Medicare For All Cheaper", you will get the article.]
https://www.salon.com
The point of the article is that Multiple Studies have shown Medicare For All is cheaper than the Public Option (Medicare For All Who Want It), and not just cheaper, but much cheaper. So people harassing Bernie for costs should point out that the Public Option pushed by his opponents is much more expensive than Medicare For All.
Sanders Surging?
Sanders is showing signs of surging in the Dem Primary, and so the knives are coming out. My question to DUers is- if by some chance Sanders is the Democratic Nominee, will you support his campaign in the General Election over Trump?
I myself will support whoever gets the nomination, even if it is someone like Bloomberg, who I despise. Bloomberg wants to bypass democracy and the primaries and use his money to get a brokered convention in his favor. As despicable as this is, it is still better than Trump. I would vote for Bloomberg over Trump. The lesser of two evils.
To those that despise Sanders, I would ask if you will support Sanders versus Trump, if it gets down to that? I will support whoever the Democratic Nominee is, even if I do not much like them, at all, like Bloomberg. Will you do the same with Sanders if by some chance he gets the nomination?
Trump Is Criminal
Trump is a criminal who has Abused the Power of his office. He is surrounded by accomplices and enablers who are engaged criminal cover-ups of the President's illegal activities. The Republicans in the Senate voted against Impeachment Acquittal, and so are now part of the criminal cover-up. Barr is just one of the chief accomplices and enablers of Trump's criminal activities.
Back in the day, when it became apparent that Nixon was involved in crimes, break-ins, and cover-ups over Watergate, many Congressional Republicans sided against Nixon and Nixon resigned before he could be impeached and tried in the Senate. So back then, some Republicans has principles and spines. Now the Senate Republicans have neither spines nor morals. Their vote to acquit Trump in the Impeachment trial amounts to an assistance of Trumps crimes, and so history will judge them as accomplices to the cover-up.
Of course we need to get the criminal Trump out of the office of President as soon as possible, which looks like the election in November 2020. If we do not, we might lose our democracy to a criminal authoritarian Tyrant who is getting away with criminal activity, corrupting and destroying our democracy.
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