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honest.abe
honest.abe's Journal
honest.abe's Journal
March 6, 2020
This report was just released at 5pm Pacific Time. These are likely late voters after SC which would probably trend heavy to Biden. Biden is going to gain alot on Sanders and I think possibly close the gap.
See my analysis of how Biden could actually win CA.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287633147
CA SOS: 3.28 million total unprocessed ballots in California!!
https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2020-primary/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdfThis report was just released at 5pm Pacific Time. These are likely late voters after SC which would probably trend heavy to Biden. Biden is going to gain alot on Sanders and I think possibly close the gap.
See my analysis of how Biden could actually win CA.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287633147
March 5, 2020
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/missouri-2020-biden-with-slim-lead-on-sanders
Sounds like Missouri will be a wash with neither candidate gaining much, which probably benefits Biden.
Emerson Missouri poll: Biden leads Sanders 48% - 44%
An Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll of Democratic voters in Missouri finds a tight race between former Vice President Joe Biden at 48% and Senator Bernie Sanders at 44%, a statistical dead heat. Six-percent (6%) of voters were undecided or voting for someone else and 2% were voting for Tulsi Gabbard. The poll was conducted March 4-5, 2020, with a sample of n=425 of likely Democratic primary voters and a margin of error of +/- 4.7%.
The poll was conducted before Senator Elizabeth Warren had dropped out of the Presidential race on Thursday, however, Warren supporters were asked who their second choice candidates are. A majority, 53%, said that Sanders was their second choice, followed by 32% who said Biden was their second choice, 5% who chose Gabbard, and 10% who were undecided as to who their second choice candidate will be.
As has been the case in previous Emerson polls, there is a large age divide in support of the candidates. Of voters under the age of 50, 66% support Sanders, compared to 27% who support Biden. And of voters 50 and older, 70% support Biden, and 21% support Sanders.
Among white voters, it is a tight race as both Biden and Sanders receive 47% support. While among non-white voters, Biden leads with 50% support followed by Sanders at 36%.
The poll was conducted before Senator Elizabeth Warren had dropped out of the Presidential race on Thursday, however, Warren supporters were asked who their second choice candidates are. A majority, 53%, said that Sanders was their second choice, followed by 32% who said Biden was their second choice, 5% who chose Gabbard, and 10% who were undecided as to who their second choice candidate will be.
As has been the case in previous Emerson polls, there is a large age divide in support of the candidates. Of voters under the age of 50, 66% support Sanders, compared to 27% who support Biden. And of voters 50 and older, 70% support Biden, and 21% support Sanders.
Among white voters, it is a tight race as both Biden and Sanders receive 47% support. While among non-white voters, Biden leads with 50% support followed by Sanders at 36%.
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/missouri-2020-biden-with-slim-lead-on-sanders
Sounds like Missouri will be a wash with neither candidate gaining much, which probably benefits Biden.
March 5, 2020
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/04/joe-biden-bernie-sanders-michigan-121160
Bernie's last gasp to win Michigan is likely to fail. I think he loses by 10+ points. If so it's over.
Politico: Biden can finish Bernie off in Michigan
It was Michigan where Sanders engineered a primary day miracle four years ago, upsetting Hillary Clinton and imprinting his populist agenda on the industrial Midwest.
--snip--
Even before Sanders’ woebegone Tuesday — marked by losses to Joe Biden throughout the South and in Massachusetts and Minnesota — a Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll put Biden ahead of Sanders by nearly 7 percentage points in Michigan. Of voters who had already cast absentee ballots, the outlook was bleaker, with Sanders running behind Biden by nearly 20 percentage points.
And that was before Super Tuesday laid bare the full force of the momentum Biden drew from winning South Carolina, prompting moderate Democrats to coalesce around him and persuading many undecided voters to break his way.
“This thing could be over for all intents and purposes in three weeks,” said Paul Maslin, a top Democratic pollster who worked on the presidential campaigns of Jimmy Carter and Howard Dean. “It’s done unless Joe makes some horrible mistake. He will win blacks 75-25 minimum from here on in. He doesn’t have Hillary’s negatives. And people want to beat Trump big time. This race is over.”
And that was before Super Tuesday laid bare the full force of the momentum Biden drew from winning South Carolina, prompting moderate Democrats to coalesce around him and persuading many undecided voters to break his way.
“This thing could be over for all intents and purposes in three weeks,” said Paul Maslin, a top Democratic pollster who worked on the presidential campaigns of Jimmy Carter and Howard Dean. “It’s done unless Joe makes some horrible mistake. He will win blacks 75-25 minimum from here on in. He doesn’t have Hillary’s negatives. And people want to beat Trump big time. This race is over.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/04/joe-biden-bernie-sanders-michigan-121160
Bernie's last gasp to win Michigan is likely to fail. I think he loses by 10+ points. If so it's over.
March 5, 2020
How Biden can win CA.. the math.
-- Currently there are about 3 million votes counted.
-- In 2016 CA Dem primary there were over 5 million votes cast
-- The turnout this year is expected to exceed that.
-- Assume a 6 million turnout so that would mean about 3 million still to be counted.
-- We are told Biden is winning the same day voting in CA but not sure by how much.
-- Assume the vast majority of those to be counted are late voters after SC.
-- So they would trend Biden.. perhaps in a big way.
-- Let say for example Biden pulls 40% and Bernie 30% in the unprocessed ballots.
3 million (unprocessed) X .40 = 1.2 million more votes for Biden
3 million (unprocessed) X .30 = 900,000 more votes for Sanders
A net gain of 300,000 votes for Biden.
Current vote totals:
Sanders: 1,055,162 + 900,000 = 1,955,162
Biden: 781,718 + 1,200,000 = 1,981,718
Biden wins by about 25,000 votes.
Wouldn't that be a kicker.
March 4, 2020
Just saw a replay of Bloomberg's campaign manager Kevin Sheekey on MSNBC earlier this afternoon.
Describing how they are going stay legal going forward with ads and using their sophisticated innovative media campaign apparatus. Apparently they are going to setup a Super Pac and run ads against Trump that way. The rest of the campaign apparatus he said could be setup as a vendor company simply providing a service to other campaigns. When asked if Bloomberg would go after Sanders.. all he said was at this point they are running an "entirely negative campaign" and smiled. LOL.
March 4, 2020
https://www.scribd.com/document/450004461/Michigan-Democratic-primary-poll-results
Biden's numbers should be even better after his amazing Super Tuesday successes.
The next big delegate prize is Michigan. Latest MI poll has Biden up by 7.
29.2% Joe Biden
22.5% Bernie Sanders
10.5% Mike Bloomberg
6.7% Elizabeth Warren
5.8% Pete Buttigieg
2.7% Amy Klobuchar
1.9% Other Candidates
16.3% Undecided
4.4% Refused
22.5% Bernie Sanders
10.5% Mike Bloomberg
6.7% Elizabeth Warren
5.8% Pete Buttigieg
2.7% Amy Klobuchar
1.9% Other Candidates
16.3% Undecided
4.4% Refused
METHODOLOGY
The Glengariff Group, Inc. conducted a Michigan statewide survey of March 10, 2020 likely Democratic Presidential Primary election voters. The 600 sample, live operator telephone survey was conducted on February 28-March 2, 2020 and has a margin of error of+/-4.0% with a 95% level of confidence. 53.8% of respondents were contacted via landline telephone. 46.2% of respondents werecontacted via cell phone telephone. This survey was commissioned by WDIV Local 4 and the Detroit News
The Glengariff Group, Inc. conducted a Michigan statewide survey of March 10, 2020 likely Democratic Presidential Primary election voters. The 600 sample, live operator telephone survey was conducted on February 28-March 2, 2020 and has a margin of error of+/-4.0% with a 95% level of confidence. 53.8% of respondents were contacted via landline telephone. 46.2% of respondents werecontacted via cell phone telephone. This survey was commissioned by WDIV Local 4 and the Detroit News
https://www.scribd.com/document/450004461/Michigan-Democratic-primary-poll-results
Biden's numbers should be even better after his amazing Super Tuesday successes.
March 3, 2020
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/03/jame-comey-backing-joe-biden-119614
I blame Comey for helping Trump win in 2016 but I welcome his vote and his positive comments. This will resonate with Independents and moderate Republicans.
James Comey says he's backing Biden for president
Former FBI Director James Comey announced that he’d voted in his first ever Democratic primary on Tuesday, backing Joe Biden in the race to challenge President Donald Trump in November.
Comey, who led the FBI during the Obama administration before being fired by Trump just months into his presidency, said on Twitter he pulled the lever for the party “dedicated to restoring values” in the White House and indicated he voted for the former vice president he once worked under.
Echoing comments from Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who dropped out of the race on the eve of Tuesday’s primaries in more than a dozen states and backed Biden, Comey wrote that “I agree with @amyklobuchar: We need [a] candidate who cares about all Americans and will restore decency, dignity to the office.”
He then argued that his vote was based on a belief that Biden is the strongest candidate to defeat Trump: "There is a reason Trump fears @JoeBiden and roots for Bernie.
Comey, who led the FBI during the Obama administration before being fired by Trump just months into his presidency, said on Twitter he pulled the lever for the party “dedicated to restoring values” in the White House and indicated he voted for the former vice president he once worked under.
Echoing comments from Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who dropped out of the race on the eve of Tuesday’s primaries in more than a dozen states and backed Biden, Comey wrote that “I agree with @amyklobuchar: We need [a] candidate who cares about all Americans and will restore decency, dignity to the office.”
He then argued that his vote was based on a belief that Biden is the strongest candidate to defeat Trump: "There is a reason Trump fears @JoeBiden and roots for Bernie.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/03/jame-comey-backing-joe-biden-119614
I blame Comey for helping Trump win in 2016 but I welcome his vote and his positive comments. This will resonate with Independents and moderate Republicans.
March 3, 2020
--snip--
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/03/biden-texas-sanders-super-tuesday-119207
I think Biden wins TX by 10+ pts. The rally last night and Beto's big endorsement are huge. Biden's campaign is running on all cylinders at the moment. Sanders is stuck in 2nd gear.
Biden campaign predicts Texas upset over Sanders
Texas is crucial to Biden’s effort to make the Democratic primary a one-on-one contest against frontrunner Bernie Sanders, who’s expected to win the biggest state of all on Super Tuesday, California.
“I expect to win Texas,” boasted Cristobal Alex, a senior adviser to Biden and native of El Paso, Texas. “The polls don’t account for results in South Carolina, which are game-changing. ...This is more than anything a numbers game and it’s about math.”
“I expect to win Texas,” boasted Cristobal Alex, a senior adviser to Biden and native of El Paso, Texas. “The polls don’t account for results in South Carolina, which are game-changing. ...This is more than anything a numbers game and it’s about math.”
--snip--
Sanders made a swing through the Lone Star State after dominating in Nevada Feb. 20 -- right as early voting started, making prognosticators in the state predict those numbers will favor Sanders.
However, three-quarters of the electorate that cast early ballots are over the age of 40 according to Ryan Data & Research, a Texas political analytics firm that tracks early votes. That could be an advantage for Biden, who generally polls well with middle-aged and older voters.
However, three-quarters of the electorate that cast early ballots are over the age of 40 according to Ryan Data & Research, a Texas political analytics firm that tracks early votes. That could be an advantage for Biden, who generally polls well with middle-aged and older voters.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/03/biden-texas-sanders-super-tuesday-119207
I think Biden wins TX by 10+ pts. The rally last night and Beto's big endorsement are huge. Biden's campaign is running on all cylinders at the moment. Sanders is stuck in 2nd gear.
March 2, 2020
Sanders just dropped below 1600 forecasted delegates on 538
Sanders: 1599
Biden: 1455
Bloomberg: 595
Warren: 243
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/
Joe only trails by 144 delegates. By tomorrow I suspect Biden will take the lead and never look back.
NOTE: Biden + Bloomberg = 2050. A majority.
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