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boomer_wv

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Member since: Mon Jun 18, 2018, 11:04 PM
Number of posts: 625

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New Iowa Poll....

There is a new Iowa poll out from Neighborhood Research and Media. It's problematic for a few reasons that I will get into.

First let's get the top line results out of the way. It has Biden leading with 23% followed by Buttigieg (17), Warren (15), Klobuchar (11), and Sanders (10).

The first sign that there might be a problem with the poll is that Donald Trump is in 6th place at 5%....in a Democratic Caucus poll of people who claim to be definite voters.

2nd is the pollster and publication. The firm is run by Rick Shaftan who is a name you might recognize from some other GOP strategy (read propaganda) firms and his history of being racist and getting fired from campaigns when people notice his racism. And the publication...Beitbart, needs no introduction.

3rd is just reading the release of the poll. It reads like something a college freshman would write after looking at data in their first Poly Sci class, and that's being generous. Essentially the poll shows no understanding of basic statistics. One example, the author describes Biden as in "Freefall" because on the first night of polling he was at about 30% and on the following night was at 20%. However, looking at n for each night, you can see both samples are pretty small, so the confidence intervals are pretty huge. More likely the first night was just, by chance, made up for a higher number of Biden supporters and the 2nd, by chance, was a little lower. This is why we don't see reputable pollsters talking about how their samples broke down by the day they sampled, because those samples are too small to be reliable. Even the total n for this poll, 300, is borderline too low to be useful.

This doesn't even delve into their sampling methods, poll design, weighting etc.

Of course, this also assumes that the poll isn't just entirely made up and given the sources is entirely possible.

I just want to post this information before anyone else sees the poll topline and starts a discussion without looking a little deeper into it. If you want to take the topline and include it in an average, I don't think that's going to cause a lot of harm, but I wouldn't look at the poll and see it as anything indicative of the actual race.

Sanders and Sirota

It's time everyone acknowledge that there is no distance between Bernie Sanders and David Sirota.

I see a lot of people on here talking about attacks on candidates from the Bernie Camp, and when they are proven false a lot of heat comes down on David Sirota. We say things like "I'm sure Bernie didn't approve this." or generally blame Sirota for putting it out there.

If this had happened once, maybe that would fly. However, it happens on a daily basis now. It's most recently seen in him tweeting out doctored videos to scare seniors of Biden. Bernie EMPLOYS Sirota. Everything that Sirota does is being explicitly endorsed by the Bernie Campaign, thereby giving him legitimacy. Do you think if Bernie were elected SIrota wouldn't have a job in the WH? He'd probably end up as Press Sec or in some Sr. Advisor role.

This is like giving Trump a pass on his lies by saying Kellyanne Conway is doing things without his approval. We all know that isn't true and neither is this.

This isn't bashing a democratic candidate either. This is asking every person reading this to be honest with themselves if they support David Sirota or not. If you are planning to vote for Bernie, you are voting for everything that Sirota does as well.

We can't answer Trump with out own version of that kind of divisiveness, vitriol, and lies.

Just a reminder on this busy news day...

Amid all of the bombshells being lobbed between Warren and Sanders, it's easy to forget that these two are going to be on stage together tomorrow at the debate.

Does anybody this this is going to be a tame debate or are we going to see those two coming for each other?

New YouGov Poll

Biden (30%, +1)
Warren (19%, +2)
Sanders (17%, -2)
Buttigieg (7%, 0)
Klobuchar (5%, +1)
Bloomberg (4%, 0)
Yang (3%, 0)
Gabbard (2%, -1)
Booker (2%, 0)
Steyer (2%, +1)
other....

This is out today, following the previous poll from before last weeks debate. There doesn't appear to be much movement of significance. No notifiable bump for Klobuchar yet. Sanders does fall from 2nd to 3rd in a 4 point swing to Warren, who does from -2 to +2 against him. Poll has a 2.9 MoE, which these moves are within, but given that 2 points is on the upper range of that, this could be some real movement and not just noise, but that isn't clear.

Topline takeaway is that Biden continues to expand his lead. His 11 point lead represents the widest margin he has seen in this poll since early June and come a couple months after Warren enjoyed a 7 point lead in mid October.

For everyone who is going to respond that national polls don't matter. I find it very unlikely that a candidate who is polling like Joe Biden is now relative to the field would finish lower than 2nd in either Iowa or New Hampshire. These national polls will influence how the votes coalesce.

Link to poll:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/t4lyjjoemc/econTabReport.pdf

New Monmouth Iowa Poll.

I didn't see this posted anywhere.

Buttigieg: 22
Biden: 19
Warren: 18
Sanders: 13
Klobuchar: 5
Harris: 3
Steyer: 3
Booker: 2
Gabbard: 2
Others 1 or <1.

n = 966
95% ci = 4.6

www.Monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_IA_111219|

YouGov Poll: Warren slips

Biden: 24 (-1)
Warren: 21 (-7)
Sanders: 15 (+2)
Buttigieg: 8 (+2)
Harris: 5 (-)
Etc.

This represents Bidens first lead in this poll in a month and her lowest level of support since the first week of sept. This has been one of her best polls.
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