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Otto Lidenbrock

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Member since: Wed Jun 20, 2018, 07:20 PM
Number of posts: 581

Journal Archives

Joe Biden ripping into Ronald Reagan and explaining Republicans don't really care about the deficit


But I keep hearing from Biden detractors online that he is Republican-lite or a Republican from the 1980s
Posted by Otto Lidenbrock | Fri Jan 10, 2020, 09:15 AM (6 replies)

Judge Judy endorses Michael Bloomberg

Posted by Otto Lidenbrock | Mon Jan 6, 2020, 12:00 PM (9 replies)

AOC: "In any other country, Joe Biden and I would not be in the same party, but in America, we are."

Ocasio-Cortez isn’t the first politician to become a cultural sensation, but she may be the first to do so at the very beginning of her career, when she is occupying the lowest rung of political power. Her main project going forward may be this: harnessing her immense star power and the legion of young lefties who see her as their avatar, not just to push the Democratic Party away from an obsession with its most moderate members but also to make the stuff of government, like congressional committee hearings and neighborhood town halls, into must-see TV. She said the Congressional Progressive Caucus should start kicking people out if they stray too far from the party line. Other caucuses within the Democratic Party in Congress require applications, Ocasio-Cortez pointed out. But “they let anybody who the cat dragged in call themselves a progressive. There’s no standard,” she said.

The same goes for the party as a whole: “Democrats can be too big of a tent.”

It is comments like that that kept Ocasio-Cortez and the rest of the Democratic Party from reaching any kind of meaningful détente. I asked her what she thought her role would be as a member of Congress during, for instance, a Joe Biden presidency. “Oh God,” she said with a groan. “In any other country, Joe Biden and I would not be in the same party, but in America, we are.”


It's a bizarre comment given Joe has been a democrat since 1969, was the AOC of his era (elected to the senate at age 30), was ranked a solid liberal by accounts of his senate votes through the years and more importantly in my opinion, in other countries like the UK which has multiple parties having parliamentary seats, it is still between two parties for being the party in government. So for that reason having a big tent is important.
Posted by Otto Lidenbrock | Mon Jan 6, 2020, 09:59 AM (210 replies)

Folks, stop falling for twitter manipulation and clickbait soundbites

When candidates do town halls they are not giving five word answers. That should be pretty damn obvious. Yet this page in the past 24 hours has been full of misrepresentation of two responses Joe Biden gave. One about a republican VP and one about coal miners learning to code.

Here is an example of how Twitter pundits blow up these out of context.


The day after Mr Weigel provides the full answer.


Now you may still disagree with Biden's analysis but it's a much more thorough answer than reported initially where the hot-take that went viral was one line at the start and one line at the end while everything in between got glossed over.

I made the same point regarding Pete Buttigieg's comments about Anthony Kennedy and the Supreme Court in October. A viral tweet that gathered 10000 likes was a total false representation. The viral tweet was a deliberately cut out snippet with the context removed and provided no source so if you were like me who was sceptical you had to find the link yourself and read it in full context for yourself. If you did that, like me, you'd realise that tweet and the outrage it caused was a lie to smear Pete when he was on a surge.

It was a lengthy post but something I saw through then and urge others to do so now.


I'm an undecided voter because no candidate really strikes me as particularly standing out. They all are flawed in some ways. But as a voter it's my responsibility to learn about them. Watch their speeches myself, hear the interviews myself, read the articles myself. Social media is an open forum for disinformation and now more than ever we as voters should do our own homework rather than get sucked into every tweet we want to be true.
Posted by Otto Lidenbrock | Tue Dec 31, 2019, 08:06 PM (3 replies)

The Story of Twitter and the Democratic Primary in Four Parts


Posted by Otto Lidenbrock | Tue Dec 31, 2019, 05:03 PM (0 replies)

It has been 47 days since a qualifying poll in Iowa, New Hampshire, or Nevada was taken.



Posted by Otto Lidenbrock | Mon Dec 30, 2019, 06:34 PM (16 replies)

Imagine how unhinged Trump is going to be from November 4th 2020 to January 20th 2021

That's the transition period when the democratic nominee becomes the President-elect of the United States.

The outgoing administration traditionally works with the incoming president and their team to make the handover as smooth as possible.

Trump's not going to do that.

There probably won't be any White House meeting after the election. Obama welcomed Trump to the White House two days after the 2016 election. Bush welcomed Obama a week after the 2008 election.

There probably will be pressure on government officials and agencies not to co-operate with the incoming president's team.

And who is to rule out the prospect of Trump doing something so reckless as he refuses to admit being fired that he goes fully rogue deliberately creating a new gigantic mess for his successor.
Posted by Otto Lidenbrock | Sun Dec 22, 2019, 09:39 PM (11 replies)

If Tom Steyer dropped out tomorrow and pledges to donate $2800 to your candidate, be happy.

Tom is a billionaire.

Tom is a lifelong democrat going back to actually working for Vice President Mondale in 1984.

Tom has raised money for Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and numerous congressional and gubernatorial candidates over the years.

Tom has used his wealth and privilege to help the Democratic Party in funding grassroots organisation including voter registration groups.

Tom has used his wealth and philanthropy to passionately advocate on the issue of climate change going back years. Funding environmental activism, using his voice and stature to support lawmakers who are on the right side of the issue and target those who are not --- including those in the democratic party, to educate and promote the cause to the public and finance research and industry led innovation for a better, sustainable green energy future.

Tom as a presidential candidate is pledging to declare the issue of climate change a national emergency.

Tom as a presidential candidate is empathetic and forthright in the issue of immigration.

Tom is open and honest about the corporate culture in this country sucking from the lower income and middle class in the country and he uses his wealth to explain that saying the state of a good economy is beyond the stock market and the rich. He says it because he knows he is one of those people who the economy is doing well for and knows it's failing the ordinary person so he wants to fix it.

If Tom dropped out tomorrow and donated to my candidate I wouldn't reject it because he falls in the category of the 'b' word. I'd accept it knowing Tom is one of those who knows he is fortunate and privileged with the cards life has dealt him and he wants to help those less fortunate in electing a president who will make government work for people like them and less for people like Tom himself.
Posted by Otto Lidenbrock | Sat Dec 21, 2019, 10:36 PM (3 replies)

Biden praises Yang


I totally agree. You have to admire Andrew Yang.

He's outlasted governors. He's outlasted senators and congressmen. He's made every debate of 2019.

People might say that's a mockery of the system and I won't disagree. The man is totally under-qualified to be president. But I can't knock the guy. Because his rise hasn't been a result of feuding with other campaigns. It's the opposite. It's become a bit of a meme that on the debate stage everyone else is sparring yet that one dude at the end only gets to talk once every half hour.

Yang never talks badly of anyone else. He just focuses on himself. His campaign is probably the most relaxed I've ever seen and in some polls he is as high as fifth. The guy is a likeable guy who makes very salient points about the 4th Industrial Revolution and I'd like to see him get a job in the next administration.

Posted by Otto Lidenbrock | Thu Dec 19, 2019, 12:16 PM (1 replies)

Introducing the 2020 Democratic Delegate Calculator


The road to an uncontested Democratic nomination requires a candidate to earn 1,990 pledged delegates and begins in Iowa on February 3. To that end, the first version of our 2020 Democratic Delegate Calculator is now available. It is based on available statewide polling. An interactive version, where you can create your own forecast, will be available in the near future.

Several important caveats here:

1. Due to the Thanksgiving holiday - and probably the holiday season in general - there hasn't been all that much recent state polling released. Until that catches up, this page may lag the true state of the delegate race.

2. As noted above, statewide polling - which is all we have to work with - is unlikely to mirror the vote within each district. That means even if the polling average we've calculated ends up being exactly right, the actual delegate allocation could be somewhat different.

3. While the overall number of pledged delegates for each state is known, the numeric distribution by groups is not final. As those become better understood, the calculation for each state could change slightly, even if the polling doesn't. You can click/tap the '+' in each state row to see the estimated breakdown.

4. The primaries and caucuses take place over a four-month period, with each contest influenced by the ones before it. Candidates will gain/lose momentum, and many will drop out.

The point is that polling today may in no way reflect the race closer to a state's primary. The interactive version we are building will give you the option to predict a dropout date for each candidate as a way to somewhat model this dynamic.


Posted by Otto Lidenbrock | Mon Dec 16, 2019, 09:30 PM (3 replies)
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