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Celerity
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Celerity's Journal
January 29, 2021
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/01/30/the-world-is-facing-an-upsurge-of-nuclear-proliferation
To stop it, the nuclear powers need to act
Thirty-one countries, from Brazil to Sweden, have flirted with nuclear weapons at one time or another. Seventeen launched a formal weapons programme. Just ten produced a deliverable bomb. Today nine states possess nuclear arms, no more than a quarter-century ago. Yet the long struggle to stop the world’s deadliest weapons from spreading is about to get harder. In the past 20 years most countries with nuclear ambitions have been geopolitical minnows, like Libya and Syria. In the next decade the threat is likely to include economic and diplomatic heavyweights whose ambitions would be harder to restrain. China’s rapidly increasing regional dominance and North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal haunt South Korea and Japan, two of Asia’s largest powers. Iran’s belligerence and its nuclear programme loom over the likes of Saudi Arabia and Turkey (see article). Proliferation is not a chain reaction, but it is contagious. Once the restraints start to weaken they can fail rapidly.
The nuclear omens are bad. Arms control between America and Russia, which saw cuts of 38,000 warheads—a 79% fall—in 1991-2010, has dwindled. On January 26th Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin agreed to extend the last remaining pact, the New start treaty, for five years. That is welcome, but prospects for a follow-on are dim. China, India, North Korea and Pakistan are all expanding and modernising their nuclear forces. There is dismal progress towards global disarmament, the ultimate aim of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (npt), the cornerstone of the nuclear order. A new treaty banning the bomb, which was signed by 86 countries and came into force on January 22nd, channels the frustration among nuclear have-nots. It accomplishes little else. If nuclear weapons are not going away, and security threats are worsening, some states will be tempted to pursue a bomb of their own. In decades past America kept nuclear aspirants in line, threatening to withdraw security guarantees from errant friends, like Taiwan, and using sanctions and military force to dissuade enemies, such as Iraq. Yet the currency of American power is weaker today. Donald Trump’s tempestuous term has sown doubts about America’s appetite to defend allies and enforce rules. They will linger, however much Mr Biden seeks to restore an orthodox foreign policy.
Consider the nuclear umbrella that America extends over Asian allies. It amounts to a promise that, should North Korea or China strike Seoul or Tokyo, America would retaliate against Pyongyang or Beijing. For decades, America could issue that threat confident that its own cities were out of range of North Korean missiles. Now they are not. An American strike on Pyongyang would put San Francisco at risk. That may make Mr Biden reluctant to act—a calculation that could embolden Kim Jong Un to attack Seoul. No wonder that, particularly in times of crisis, most South Koreans say that they would like to see a return of the American tactical nuclear weapons withdrawn from their soil in 1991 or, failing that, an indigenous South Korean bomb. In democracies like South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, nuclear ambitions are tempered by political reality. The Middle East is different. The nuclear deal curtailing Iran’s nuclear programme is collapsing. Even if Mr Biden revives it, many of its provisions expire in a decade. Should Iran at any time look as if it is contemplating going nuclear, Saudi Arabia will not want to fall behind. Muhammad bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, has few domestic checks on his authority and ambitious plans for nuclear technology. Turkey could well follow.
If the nuclear order starts to unravel, it will be almost impossible to stop. Hence the importance of acting today. America, China, Europe and Russia share an interest in stopping proliferation. Russia does not want a nuclear Iran any more than America does. The prospect of a nuclear-armed Japan would be among China’s worst nightmares. The Iranian nuclear deal in 2015 showed that rivals can muster a response to proliferation. The nuclear states should start with the basics. America and Russia still have 90% of the world’s nuclear warheads, so any effort begins with them. Now that New start will be extended, they should begin work on a successor that would include other weapons, such as hypersonic gliders and lower-yield warheads, which Russia has in abundance. More radical ideas should also be discussed. America operates a triad of nuclear forces: silos on land, submarines at sea and bombers in the air. Retiring the land-based missiles would demonstrate genuine progress towards disarmament, without eroding deterrence.
snip
The Economist : The world is facing an upsurge of nuclear proliferation
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/01/30/the-world-is-facing-an-upsurge-of-nuclear-proliferation
To stop it, the nuclear powers need to act
Thirty-one countries, from Brazil to Sweden, have flirted with nuclear weapons at one time or another. Seventeen launched a formal weapons programme. Just ten produced a deliverable bomb. Today nine states possess nuclear arms, no more than a quarter-century ago. Yet the long struggle to stop the world’s deadliest weapons from spreading is about to get harder. In the past 20 years most countries with nuclear ambitions have been geopolitical minnows, like Libya and Syria. In the next decade the threat is likely to include economic and diplomatic heavyweights whose ambitions would be harder to restrain. China’s rapidly increasing regional dominance and North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal haunt South Korea and Japan, two of Asia’s largest powers. Iran’s belligerence and its nuclear programme loom over the likes of Saudi Arabia and Turkey (see article). Proliferation is not a chain reaction, but it is contagious. Once the restraints start to weaken they can fail rapidly.
The nuclear omens are bad. Arms control between America and Russia, which saw cuts of 38,000 warheads—a 79% fall—in 1991-2010, has dwindled. On January 26th Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin agreed to extend the last remaining pact, the New start treaty, for five years. That is welcome, but prospects for a follow-on are dim. China, India, North Korea and Pakistan are all expanding and modernising their nuclear forces. There is dismal progress towards global disarmament, the ultimate aim of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (npt), the cornerstone of the nuclear order. A new treaty banning the bomb, which was signed by 86 countries and came into force on January 22nd, channels the frustration among nuclear have-nots. It accomplishes little else. If nuclear weapons are not going away, and security threats are worsening, some states will be tempted to pursue a bomb of their own. In decades past America kept nuclear aspirants in line, threatening to withdraw security guarantees from errant friends, like Taiwan, and using sanctions and military force to dissuade enemies, such as Iraq. Yet the currency of American power is weaker today. Donald Trump’s tempestuous term has sown doubts about America’s appetite to defend allies and enforce rules. They will linger, however much Mr Biden seeks to restore an orthodox foreign policy.
Consider the nuclear umbrella that America extends over Asian allies. It amounts to a promise that, should North Korea or China strike Seoul or Tokyo, America would retaliate against Pyongyang or Beijing. For decades, America could issue that threat confident that its own cities were out of range of North Korean missiles. Now they are not. An American strike on Pyongyang would put San Francisco at risk. That may make Mr Biden reluctant to act—a calculation that could embolden Kim Jong Un to attack Seoul. No wonder that, particularly in times of crisis, most South Koreans say that they would like to see a return of the American tactical nuclear weapons withdrawn from their soil in 1991 or, failing that, an indigenous South Korean bomb. In democracies like South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, nuclear ambitions are tempered by political reality. The Middle East is different. The nuclear deal curtailing Iran’s nuclear programme is collapsing. Even if Mr Biden revives it, many of its provisions expire in a decade. Should Iran at any time look as if it is contemplating going nuclear, Saudi Arabia will not want to fall behind. Muhammad bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, has few domestic checks on his authority and ambitious plans for nuclear technology. Turkey could well follow.
If the nuclear order starts to unravel, it will be almost impossible to stop. Hence the importance of acting today. America, China, Europe and Russia share an interest in stopping proliferation. Russia does not want a nuclear Iran any more than America does. The prospect of a nuclear-armed Japan would be among China’s worst nightmares. The Iranian nuclear deal in 2015 showed that rivals can muster a response to proliferation. The nuclear states should start with the basics. America and Russia still have 90% of the world’s nuclear warheads, so any effort begins with them. Now that New start will be extended, they should begin work on a successor that would include other weapons, such as hypersonic gliders and lower-yield warheads, which Russia has in abundance. More radical ideas should also be discussed. America operates a triad of nuclear forces: silos on land, submarines at sea and bombers in the air. Retiring the land-based missiles would demonstrate genuine progress towards disarmament, without eroding deterrence.
snip
January 29, 2021
Progressive Yearbook 2021 (193 page free download)
https://www.feps-europe.eu/attachments/publications/progressive_4.pdf
January 28, 2021
https://twitter.com/WinterForMT/status/1354268369655107593
My rapist fought for custody of my daughter. States can't keep survivors tied to rapists.
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opinion/voices/2019/06/19/abortion-laws-bans-rape-parental-rights-column/1432450001/
Rape victims who gave birth to their attackers' children open up on the outrageous reality of CO-PARENTING with the sex predators who ruined their lives
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8514777/Rape-victims-fighting-change-laws-allowing-rapists-parental-rights-children.html
Republican bill in Montana may give rapists the right to co-parent the children of their victims.
https://twitter.com/WinterForMT/status/1354268369655107593
My rapist fought for custody of my daughter. States can't keep survivors tied to rapists.
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opinion/voices/2019/06/19/abortion-laws-bans-rape-parental-rights-column/1432450001/
I was Louisiana's first special assistant on women's policy, advising the governor and presenting the governor's proclamation for domestic violence awareness month. Then I was raped. It was 2003.
After I became pregnant as a result of the attack, I did not want to think of myself as a victim. I chose to carry my pregnancy to term. It gave me hope that I was not completely broken and destroyed. But it was my personal decision to have my daughter and raise her.
I did not expect to feel the horror and shock that came years later, in 2010, when my rapist tried to claim custody of my child.
My rapist was never convicted for what he did to me. When the day came that I was served with court papers on his behalf, I was terrified of the danger this posed for my child, who had no idea what I would have to go through to protect her.
After I became pregnant as a result of the attack, I did not want to think of myself as a victim. I chose to carry my pregnancy to term. It gave me hope that I was not completely broken and destroyed. But it was my personal decision to have my daughter and raise her.
I did not expect to feel the horror and shock that came years later, in 2010, when my rapist tried to claim custody of my child.
My rapist was never convicted for what he did to me. When the day came that I was served with court papers on his behalf, I was terrified of the danger this posed for my child, who had no idea what I would have to go through to protect her.
Rape victims who gave birth to their attackers' children open up on the outrageous reality of CO-PARENTING with the sex predators who ruined their lives
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8514777/Rape-victims-fighting-change-laws-allowing-rapists-parental-rights-children.html
January 28, 2021
https://twitter.com/WinterForMT/status/1354268369655107593
Republican bill in Montana may give rapists the right to co-parent the children of their victims.
https://twitter.com/WinterForMT/status/1354268369655107593
January 28, 2021
a normal person explains what’s happening on the stock market:
https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1354661472471818240
This deserves an award...
a normal person explains what’s happening on the stock market:
https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1354661472471818240
January 28, 2021
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
@AOC
Gotta admit it’s really something to see Wall Streeters with a long history of treating our economy as a casino complain about a message board of posters also treating the market as a casino
It isn’t just GameStop: Here are some of the other heavily shorted stocks shooting higher
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-some-of-the-other-stocks-seeing-gamestop-like-short-squeezes-11611687693
AOC FTW (GameStop short squeeze)
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1354536756033572864Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
@AOC
Gotta admit it’s really something to see Wall Streeters with a long history of treating our economy as a casino complain about a message board of posters also treating the market as a casino
ETA (my own words as explanation)
a bunch of small day traders on reddit organised to buy up GME (GameStop) stock as the giant hedge hedge fuds held huge short positions (betting the GME stock would go down). The Stock is up (or was) 8000%, meaning the hedge fund shorts are get massacred. The group is moving onto new targets in similar positions as well, like Blackberry, Virgin Galactic, AMC, Koss, Express, etc etc.
It is a war on the hedge funds by thousands of small day traders.
a bunch of small day traders on reddit organised to buy up GME (GameStop) stock as the giant hedge hedge fuds held huge short positions (betting the GME stock would go down). The Stock is up (or was) 8000%, meaning the hedge fund shorts are get massacred. The group is moving onto new targets in similar positions as well, like Blackberry, Virgin Galactic, AMC, Koss, Express, etc etc.
It is a war on the hedge funds by thousands of small day traders.
It isn’t just GameStop: Here are some of the other heavily shorted stocks shooting higher
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-some-of-the-other-stocks-seeing-gamestop-like-short-squeezes-11611687693
January 28, 2021
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/27/world/europe/europe-covid-vaccinations.html
BRUSSELS — Europe’s coronavirus vaccination woes snowballed into a full-blown crisis Wednesday, as Spain became the first country to partly suspend immunizations for lack of doses, and a dispute escalated with AstraZeneca over the drugmaker’s announcement that it would slash deliveries of its vaccine by 60 percent because of production shortfalls. The European Union has been beset by a litany of problems since it approved its first coronavirus vaccine, made by Pfizer and BioNTech, in December and rushed to begin a vast immunization campaign weeks behind rich nations like the United States and Britain.
While it is flush with cash, influence and negotiating heft, the bloc of 27 nations has found itself behind those countries, as well as others like Israel, Canada, and the United Arab Emirates, mounting similar efforts to get enough doses for their citizens, even as many countries across the world, particularly poorer ones, struggle to secure any at all. The European Commission, the bloc’s executive branch, last week set a goal to have 70 percent of its population inoculated by this summer, a goal that was dismissed four days later by the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, as “difficult.”
By this week, a mere 2 percent of E.U. citizens had received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, according to numbers collected by Our World in Data, compared with some 40 percent of Israelis. The figure in Britain was 11 percent, and just over 6 percent in the United States. In a rare bit of good news, the French drugmaker Sanofi said Wednesday that it would help produce more than 100 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, starting this summer, but those doses would likely come too late to salvage vaccination plans for the first half of 2021.
Pfizer informed the European Union and other countries outside the United States this month that it had to drastically cut its vaccine deliveries until mid-February to upgrade its plants in order to ramp up output, adding to the severe supply problems facing the region. But it was AstraZeneca’s sudden announcement last week that it would cut deliveries in February and March by 60 percent, that really upended European Union vaccination plans. Many countries had built their strategies around expectations of millions of those doses of that vaccine, which is cheaper and easier to store than others, in the first quarter of the year. AstraZeneca said it was having production troubles at one of its factories, but did not specify what those were or offer details on how it was addressing them and when.
snip
Vaccine Shortages Hit E.U. in a Setback for Its Immunization Race
Spain has suspended vaccinations in Madrid because of a shortfall of doses, as the European Union locks horns with the drugmaker AstraZeneca over vaccine delivery cuts.https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/27/world/europe/europe-covid-vaccinations.html
BRUSSELS — Europe’s coronavirus vaccination woes snowballed into a full-blown crisis Wednesday, as Spain became the first country to partly suspend immunizations for lack of doses, and a dispute escalated with AstraZeneca over the drugmaker’s announcement that it would slash deliveries of its vaccine by 60 percent because of production shortfalls. The European Union has been beset by a litany of problems since it approved its first coronavirus vaccine, made by Pfizer and BioNTech, in December and rushed to begin a vast immunization campaign weeks behind rich nations like the United States and Britain.
While it is flush with cash, influence and negotiating heft, the bloc of 27 nations has found itself behind those countries, as well as others like Israel, Canada, and the United Arab Emirates, mounting similar efforts to get enough doses for their citizens, even as many countries across the world, particularly poorer ones, struggle to secure any at all. The European Commission, the bloc’s executive branch, last week set a goal to have 70 percent of its population inoculated by this summer, a goal that was dismissed four days later by the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, as “difficult.”
By this week, a mere 2 percent of E.U. citizens had received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, according to numbers collected by Our World in Data, compared with some 40 percent of Israelis. The figure in Britain was 11 percent, and just over 6 percent in the United States. In a rare bit of good news, the French drugmaker Sanofi said Wednesday that it would help produce more than 100 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, starting this summer, but those doses would likely come too late to salvage vaccination plans for the first half of 2021.
Pfizer informed the European Union and other countries outside the United States this month that it had to drastically cut its vaccine deliveries until mid-February to upgrade its plants in order to ramp up output, adding to the severe supply problems facing the region. But it was AstraZeneca’s sudden announcement last week that it would cut deliveries in February and March by 60 percent, that really upended European Union vaccination plans. Many countries had built their strategies around expectations of millions of those doses of that vaccine, which is cheaper and easier to store than others, in the first quarter of the year. AstraZeneca said it was having production troubles at one of its factories, but did not specify what those were or offer details on how it was addressing them and when.
snip
January 28, 2021
https://www.thelocal.se/20210127/swedish-uk-startup-set-to-launch-urban-electric-truck-volta-trucks
Volta Trucks has developed what it bills as the world's first purpose-built fully-electric 16-tonne commercial vehicle which is designed to criss-cross cities for short journeys. The young firm, which was founded in Sweden in 2019, this week sealed a $20-million (16.5-million-euro) investment to help boost production of the Volta Zero which has a driving range of 150-200 kilometres (93-124 miles). And despite humble plans so far, the truck already has an order book worth $260 million – regardless of ongoing turmoil surrounding Brexit and the Covid-19 pandemic.
"We are a Scandinavian company with a UK operating base and we have presence in France as well," Volta Trucks chief executive Rob Fowler told AFP. "We operate in the UK because of access to automotive specialists and to be close to our target markets. "We intend to put between 12 and 20 vehicles onto the road at the end of the year and we intend to scale up manufacturing at the end of 2022." Volta targets distribution, logistics and removal firms that seek to switch away from diesel and gasoline-powered trucks that pollute city centres. France's Petit Forestier, which is Europe's biggest refrigerated lorry rental firm, has already signed a contract for 1,000 units.
However, Volta is still seeking to a permanent manufacturing partner to produce the trucks. The company has so far only produced one prototype, which was produced last year by UK automotive firm Prodrive. "We are in the final stage of negotiations with a number of manufacturing partners in different parts of Europe and the UK," said Fowler. Brexit has not yet had any short-term impact on the business but could still influence the choice. "As we are assessing our manufacturing partners we have considered trade barriers, logistics costs, labour costs – a wide range of factors – and the impact of Brexit is one these factors which we are assessing," he added.
The company must convince customers to place their trust in its electric vehicles, despite the higher price tag than traditional rival trucks – because fuel is cheaper, according to Fowler. "The total cost of ownership for owning that vehicle is comparable to that of a diesel vehicle now. That makes the transition much easier for our customers." Volta wants to benefit from the industry's ongoing shift towards greener and cleaner energy – and broader global efforts to slash carbon usage and combat climate change.
snip
Swedish-UK startup's urban electric truck set to hit the road in 2021
Anglo-Swedish startup Volta Trucks is set to launch its urban electric truck this year, and plans to scale up in 2022.https://www.thelocal.se/20210127/swedish-uk-startup-set-to-launch-urban-electric-truck-volta-trucks
Volta Trucks has developed what it bills as the world's first purpose-built fully-electric 16-tonne commercial vehicle which is designed to criss-cross cities for short journeys. The young firm, which was founded in Sweden in 2019, this week sealed a $20-million (16.5-million-euro) investment to help boost production of the Volta Zero which has a driving range of 150-200 kilometres (93-124 miles). And despite humble plans so far, the truck already has an order book worth $260 million – regardless of ongoing turmoil surrounding Brexit and the Covid-19 pandemic.
"We are a Scandinavian company with a UK operating base and we have presence in France as well," Volta Trucks chief executive Rob Fowler told AFP. "We operate in the UK because of access to automotive specialists and to be close to our target markets. "We intend to put between 12 and 20 vehicles onto the road at the end of the year and we intend to scale up manufacturing at the end of 2022." Volta targets distribution, logistics and removal firms that seek to switch away from diesel and gasoline-powered trucks that pollute city centres. France's Petit Forestier, which is Europe's biggest refrigerated lorry rental firm, has already signed a contract for 1,000 units.
However, Volta is still seeking to a permanent manufacturing partner to produce the trucks. The company has so far only produced one prototype, which was produced last year by UK automotive firm Prodrive. "We are in the final stage of negotiations with a number of manufacturing partners in different parts of Europe and the UK," said Fowler. Brexit has not yet had any short-term impact on the business but could still influence the choice. "As we are assessing our manufacturing partners we have considered trade barriers, logistics costs, labour costs – a wide range of factors – and the impact of Brexit is one these factors which we are assessing," he added.
The company must convince customers to place their trust in its electric vehicles, despite the higher price tag than traditional rival trucks – because fuel is cheaper, according to Fowler. "The total cost of ownership for owning that vehicle is comparable to that of a diesel vehicle now. That makes the transition much easier for our customers." Volta wants to benefit from the industry's ongoing shift towards greener and cleaner energy – and broader global efforts to slash carbon usage and combat climate change.
snip
January 26, 2021
Just now, MSNBC said that Sinema went to McConnell herself & assured him the filibuster would stay
waiting for a text news link
will update when I find one
ETA
here is a partial treatment of it (not exactly what I was looking for but for now it is what I found)
https://www.npr.org/2021/01/26/960621238/mcconnell-relents-on-senate-filibuster-stalemate
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