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Celerity

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Gender: Female
Hometown: London
Home country: UK/Sweden
Current location: Stockholm, Sweden
Member since: Sun Jul 1, 2018, 06:25 PM
Number of posts: 25,400

Journal Archives

IF Peters hangs on in MI, it looks like the best we can do is 50-50 (if Bullock wins, Collins loses

AL Jones lost (as expected)

so we are at 46

we won in CO and AZ

so we are at 48

now the bad news

SC Graham romped to a win (polls were dead wrong)
NC (AGAIN) Tillis looks to have eked out a win (Cunningham sex scandal fucked him, it look like, another one the polls were fucked on)
IA Pigfucker Ernst won
KS Bollier got beaten (sibelius would have had a much better shot, not happy with her at all)
TN we got blown away (so raging, as I have been for a year, that Tim McGraw has now TWICE turned down running for open seats in a 2 year period, after promising for a decade plus he would run when he is 50yo (he is 53 now)
KY Traitor McTurtle won
TX Hegar lost
GA Ossoff looks to have lost
GA Special. Warnock made the runoff, but only got 29% or so, he will get pounded in the runoff I fear by the criminal slag Loeffler

wild card

Gross in Alaska, but that is a real long shot


this leaves us needing Peters to hang on, and he is trailing atm (Detroit hopefully cares him over the top)



and then Bullock and Gideon need to win


to get to 50-50

AZ called for Joe, so as long as we win NV, MI, Wi and NE-2, Biden is POTUS, even if PA goes Rump



IF Biden wins PA, the only way Rump can win is to flip MI and either WI or NV







Fuck we lost FL-15, the only real chance to pull the Rethugs under 26 State delegations in the House

So if (ultra remote chance) it is a 269-269 tie, then Trump will be elected by the House (unless Pelosi courts a civil war via invoking Article 1 Sec 5 powers and refuses to seat certain State's Rethugs until after the House votes in January for POTUS)



Republican Scott Franklin Wins Election to U.S. House in Florida's 15th Congressional District

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/florida/articles/2020-11-03/democrat-alcee-hastings-wins-reelection-to-us-house-in-floridas-20th-congressional-district

We hold the House!!!!! (per MSNBC)

newest scenario, AZ looks good, if we hold NV, and flip (likely) NE-2, we can LOSE PA and still win

as long as we take WI, MN, and MI

bad news

it will be by ONE EV (faithless elector nightmare possible)


AZ, Maricopa, 77% in, mostly early votes (not same day) Biden up almost 10%

Win PA, we win the POTUS, it's that simple, barring any major surprises (FL & NC were not surprises)

this map is the WORST I can see us doing if we win PA

assuming NC goes Red (NYT now 81% chance it goes Rump) its looking like it is down to PA, NV and AZ

barring a huge surprise in TX or OH or WI or MI or MN or IA or NE-2

IF we win PA and the rest holds, Trump cannot win, even if he grabs NC, AZ, NV












Trump wins in the following







it may, MAY be down to 3 states PA, NC, AZ, w/ NV as a wild card (assuming we win NE-2. MI, WI, MN)

the same 3 I have been banging on for ages (plus NE-2, which I have said we would win) and then NV as a possible Rump flip (still doubtful in my book)

NC looks good atm, GA may be slipping away (I have never assumed we win that)

TX still with an outside chance for the KILLSHOT

my final picks again, just so you see where I am coming from

FL is 95%+ done, it went for the orange monster, the Latinx, especially the Cubans, carried the day

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=defaultŽion=TOP_BANNER&context=storyline_menu_recirc

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