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Celerity

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Gender: Female
Hometown: London
Home country: USA/UK/Sweden
Current location: Stockholm, Sweden
Member since: Sun Jul 1, 2018, 07:25 PM
Number of posts: 11,525

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The current state of the 13 flippable 2020 Senate seats (I was asked to make a reply an OP)

Here is my completely up to date, most detailed post yet on the state of the races.

We need a plus 4 net to flip the Senate to a 51-49 Dem advantage (so no power sharing agreements needed at all) as it stands, and a plus 5 net if Paedo Moore is not the Rethug Alabama nominee (and even that bastard will be hard for Jones to beat in a POTUS year in Alabama) and we lose Doug Jones. We should absolute hold all our other seats. Jeanne Shaheen in NH is the only one that is probably not a 99% lock, with the Rethugs choosing between Don Bolduc, former U.S. Army brigadier general, Bill O'Brien, former Speaker of the New Hampshire House of Representatives, Kelly Ayotte, former U.S. Senator and former Attorney General of New Hampshire, Scott 'Pickup' Brown, U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa, former U.S. Senator from Massachusetts, and 2014 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate from New Hampshire, and the lunatic Rump stooge (and Hope Hicks' ex BF/verbal abuser), Corey Lewandowski. Bolduc and Ayotte are probably their best shots there (with Bolduc worrying me the most), but I feel really good about our chances to hold it, due to Rump being between 11 and 17 points (depending on the poll) underwater overall in NH.


These are all the remotely possible races where we can flip, all 13 of them. Some are very much a stretch, and also we are having a lot of big names refuse to run, in fact, all the arguably best candidates in 11 of the 13 seats have all refused, so far, to run.


These are the only 2 states ATM with our strongest possible candidates running:

Arizona Mark Kelly has a great chance at beating McSally. This was (until Hickenlooper got smart) the only state so far that we had the best potential candidate already running.

Colorado Hickenlooper now running makes it 90-95% that we flip this. Even if you do not think he is the best on policy, he still is the most electable. All I ask is that he knocks it off with the red-baiting (saying progressives are bringing back Stalin and Marx's policies), which is asinine and plays into the Rethug's hands. I would much prefer Joe Neguse or Andrew Romanoff to Hickenlooper strictly on policy.


Now the ones who do NOT have our strongest candidates running as of yet:


Alaska (I hope Mark Begich, our ex US Senator there, runs versus Sullivan, he has said he was not, but now may change his mind.) If Begich ends up completely declining, then it will probably be between Ethan Berkowitz, the mayor of Anchorage, and Forrest Dunbar, Anchorage assemblyman and nominee for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 2014.

Maine (Susan Rice, who has said no quite emphatically, would have been the best to knock out the POS hypocrite Collins IMHO, but hopefully we can find another great one, it looks likely to be Sara Gideon atm, I think Gideon can take out Collins, just was more sure on Rice, but she is not going to run.)

Montana (The most glaring one, probably, grrrr as Bullock is basically the only one of ours who would have a great chance at beating Daines, I think Bullock would defeat him, but he has said dozens of times he will not run, I just heard him say it again today. Only redeemable way this works is if Biden makes him his VP pick, which I fully support, as that ticket is the hardest to attack for Rump and the Rethugs.) I think we MIGHT have a shot if Brian Schweitzer changes his mind and runs.

Tennessee (open Rethug seat, due to Alexander retiring, I so hope Tim McGraw (yes the superstar singer, who said for years he would run when he was 50, and he is 52 now) reconsiders his turndown, he would have the best shot from all I have seen, most of the other candidates we have are already one time losers, some just last year, or pretty unknown. The two I see who are the best should McGraw not change his mind are Jeff Yarbro and James Mackler)

Georgia With Isakson retiring (there will be an interim Repug appointed for the last year) There are now TWO seats we can flip. Stacey Abrams and Sally Yates would have had the best chances by far to beat Perdue and Rethug X, but each one has said no over and over, so it is going to be much harder I fear, even though Perdue is weak, and a shit campaigner. Jon Ossoff has now declared for David Perdue's seat. So far it looks like the best of the rest are Teresa Tomlinson, Stacey Evans, Sarah Riggs Amico, Jason Carter (Jimmy's grandson), Kasim Reed,and Michelle Nunn.

Kansas (open Rethug seat due to Roberts retiring, the right candidate for us has a shot, maybe Kathleen Sebelius, but she also just said no, and a big local paper says that really hurts our chances This is a carbon copy of Montana, just swap in Sebelius for Bullock, its a Red state and all the insiders say she is only Dem who can win.)

Iowa (Cindy Axne and Vilsack, probably our 2 best chances to beat Ernst, both have declined to run, but I have hope we can find another great candidate, Theresa Greenfield (I think she will be the Dem winner) or Chet Culver (not declared) look to be the best of the rest, this is similar Maine IMHO)

North Carolina (our two best candidates by far, Foxx and Stein, have both said no, grrr, I so hope one, especially Foxx, re-considers) Tillis is so ripe for the picking if we get one of those 2 to run, and still may have a shot if it is another, Cal Cunningham perhaps, or Erica Smith, but both will have a harder time that Stein or Foxx would have had. This one is so so irritating me.

now the two wishful thinking states:

Kentucky This is probably the 2nd toughest. Andy Beshear might have had a shot at dumping McTurtle, but he ran (and won!!!) the Governorship. Amy McGrath is who we are probably going to have to roll with, and it is not impossible, due to McConnell being truly hated even by some Rethugs, his overall approval numbers are worse than Rump by far, amongst the bottom in all the Senate. Overall a huge reach, but so hope Moscow Mitch goes DOWN. McGrath needs to make no more errors like the one she did right at kickoff (saying she would have voted yes for Kavanaugh for SCOTUS. The same thing crushed Bredesen in TN in 2018, it so depressed our base turnout.)

Texas Cornyn in Texas is the toughest reach, IMHO, even if Beto runs (which I doubt he will.) Cornyn is streets ahead of Cruz in terms of TX popularity. I like Amanda Edwards a lot, I hope she wins the Primary, but, I do not see a pathway to anyone beating Cornyn unless something massive breaks our way. MJ Hegar is the Democratic frontrunner atm.


We would need to win FIVE of those 13 to flip it to 51-49 IF Jones goes down in Alabama, and only CO is even close to one that I would say is a pretty good chance to label a semi-lock, and some are just downright so so hard, even if the best candidates change their minds and run. My true target is 6 flips, so we are at 52-48, and thus negate Manchin and Sinema, who vote with the Rethugs 55% of the time, far more than any other Democratic Senators. I SO hope Hickenlooper does not become the 3rd member of that posse, lolol.

Schumer and Cortez Masto have been so poor at recruiting the best candidates, it is one of the biggest stories of 2020 so far. I am going to give up on pulling the people who I think are strongest in ME, IA, (those two I can be happy with who we have) TX, and KY. We just have to roll with who we have there now. AZ and CO now have our best possible, so that leaves:

AK (Begich run!)
MT (Bullock run! or if he is VP, or if he refuses, Schweitzer run!)
TN (McGraw run!)
KS (Sebelius run!)
NC (Foxx and/or Stein run!)
GA (2 seats) (Abrams run! and Yates run! if Abrams is the VP or refuses still, hopefully we can find another strong candidate from that list above.)

IF all those above change their minds and run, I can say, with at least 60% or more confidence, we will hit at least 6 flips, and maybe, IF Rump just gets crushed, win 11 of the 13, and if he goes down with my biggest possible EC count giving us EVERY remotely possible EV, we may get all 13, plus keep Jones. If that happened we would have 60 seats, so a filibusterer proof majority.

Finally, one of the dead Red lock states is by far the best bet to be a huge surprise, that being Mike Rounds in SD going down, hopefully to ex-Senator Tim Johnson's son, Brendan Johnson. The max possible EC victory count by the way, that paved the way for a 13 out of 13 sweep plus Jones holding and SD even maybe flipped, was our Dem POTUS nominee 472 - Rump 66. A girl can dream!

Meet Fox's newest favorite climate misinformer, Mandy Gunasekara

Gunasekara appears on Fox and other right-wing outlets to put a positive spin on Trump’s disastrous climate agenda

https://www.mediamatters.org/fox-news/meet-foxs-newest-favorite-climate-misinformer-mandy-gunasekara

As President Donald Trump’s communication strategy begins to take shape for the 2020 election, his favorite network has been repeatedly booking a former Environmental Protection Agency official to gaslight for the president’s destructive anti-climate and anti-science agenda.

Since February, Mandy Gunasekara has appeared at least 17 times on both Fox News and Fox Business to talk about her past work with the Trump administration, promote his energy agenda, and criticize the Democratic presidential candidates. She has made numerous appearances on other right-wing outlets as well, including The Daily Caller and Bill Mitchell’s radio program. Gunasekara’s history of working with climate change deniers makes her the perfect right-wing pundit for Trump’s so-called “energy dominance” agenda.

From March 2017 through February of this year, Gunasekara was a top climate and air quality adviser at the EPA, where she played a key role in helping the Trump administration undo major environmental regulations. Her organization, Energy45, lists her as “chief architect of the withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord” and an orchestrator of the Clean Power Plan repeal. At a 2017 conference, she reportedly told coal company representatives that she was in a position at the EPA to “make a big difference and do things to help out and tear back the problems that stemmed from decisions of the last administration.”

Before joining the EPA, Gunasekara worked on Capitol Hill, where she served as counsel for Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK), “the grandfather of climate denial,” handing him the snowball during his infamous climate denial speech in 2015.

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McConnell offers fresh defense of Senate filibuster, warns Democrats could pass 'socialist policies'

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/mcconnell-offers-fresh-defense-of-senate-filibuster-warns-democrats-could-pass-socialist-policies-if-they-take-control/2019/08/22/c99b8ea0-c4de-11e9-b72f-b31dfaa77212_story.html

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) offered a fresh defense of the filibuster on Thursday, writing in an op-ed that Democrats could pass a “laundry list of socialist policies” if they took control of the chamber and the long-standing tradition was dropped.

“Our country doesn’t need a second House of Representatives with fewer members and longer terms,” McConnell wrote in a piece published by the New York Times in which he touted the strong role of the minority-party rights in his chamber. “America needs the Senate to be the Senate.


McConnell’s op-ed comes as many Democratic presidential candidates and others in the party have called for abandoning the Senate requirement to secure 60 votes to overcome a filibuster to advance most legislation. According to a Washington Post tally, five Democratic White House hopefuls have said they believe the Senate should be able to pass bills with a simple majority, while another 11 contenders have said they are open to the change.

They argue that the lower bar would make it far easier to enact plans such as Medicare-for-all that draw little or no Republican support, assuming Democrats take control of the White House and both chambers of Congress in next year’s elections. President Trump has also called for eliminating the filibuster, a fact left unmentioned in McConnell’s op-ed. Trump derided the “ridiculous filibuster rule” in tweets early in his tenure when Republicans struggled to repeal the Affordable Care Act.

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Government reassures voters post-Brexit ration books will also be blue

https://rochdaleherald.co.uk/2019/08/18/government-reassures-voters-post-brexit-ration-books-will-also-be-blue/

The government has taken bold steps today to reassure the public after a leaked Whitechapel report detailed how the UK is likely to face food, medicine and fuel shortages after Brexit.

Many experts are now certain that pretty much everybody will be forced to survive on canned peaches, spam, pets and neighbours’ children for the first four or five years after Brexit.

“We just don’t want people to panic.” A spokesman for Michael Gove told The Rochdale Herald.

“Yes there’s going to be shortages of stuff like the ingredients for all the food we eat and all the medicine we make, and electricity and diesel and other stuff we might not have even thought of yet.”

“But we have taken all the steps necessary to ensure that the ration books we’ll be issuing will be navy blue to match the passports we’re having printed in France. We’re going to put a flag on it and maybe a nice patriotic lion or something.”

Snip



Trump Baby

Jay Inslee on Why He's Dropping Out of the 2020 White House Race

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/08/jay-inslee-on-why-hes-dropping-out-of-the-2020-race.html

The Democratic field no longer has a climate candidate. Washington governor Jay Inslee, who made global warming the centerpiece of his long-shot campaign for the presidency, announced Wednesday evening that he was dropping out of the race, facing the prospect that CNN might stage a forum on climate change for Democratic candidates for which Inslee himself would fail to qualify.

The governor didn’t need to run on climate change alone — he’s a well-liked governor in a thriving state, with an enviable liberal record on job creation, economic growth, minimum-wage increases, and family-leave policy that seemed, in theory at least, to offer a powerful case study in how Democrats could move forward on climate change while accomplishing everything else they might want. But while his six-part climate policy may become the road map for a future Democratic administration, it isn’t going to be his, and, at the moment when Democratic voters tell pollsters they are unprecedentedly concerned about the environment (naming climate change as a top-tier issue in many state polls), they aren’t going to be nominating the one candidate who really prioritized it. Earlier Wednesday, we talked to him about what happened.

First, I just wanted to congratulate you on the incredibly principled and important campaign you’ve run. It’s so important that I’m personally pretty distressed and disheartened that it’s ending. How are you feeling?

Well, I’m not going to end up in the White House, which was the goal. But there have been several things that have been accomplished. Number one, we made a governing document on clean energy and the environment for the United States. Now that document is going to be open sourced, and I’m going to call on the other candidates to be more committed to the issue. I think you saw on the campaign trail that other candidates had to respond to our clarity and vision, and I think it was an accomplishment to get the other candidates to raise their ambitions. Going forward, I’ll be just as vocal about that.

I think we have set the stage for a genuine debate about climate change, in one form or another. We have the two forums coming up, and I’m hoping that there will be a proper debate, too — that will be voted on soon, and it was not going to take place otherwise. And I think it was significant achievement to get this on the country’s radar screen — that was an accomplishment, too.


snip

sorry to see him go, I so liked him, but he never caught fire

Charlize Theron, Nicole Kidman, Margot Robbie Portray the Women of Fox News in 'Bombshell' Trailer

Film dramatizes the sexual harassment allegations made towards Roger Ailes

https://www.rollingstone.com/movies/movie-news/bombshell-trailer-874678/

Charlize Theron, Nicole Kidman, and Margot Robbie star as the women of Fox News in the trailer for Bombshell, Jay Roach’s new drama about the network and the scandal surrounding its founder, Roger Ailes. The film hits theaters in December.

The trailer is a simple one, demonstrating the gendered hierarchy at Fox and the searing tension (and alliances) between its women employees through a tense elevator sequence. Theron, dressed up in convincing prosthetics, plays Megyn Kelly, and Kidman portrays Gretchen Carlson, the former Fox & Friends co-host who first filed a sexual harassment lawsuit against Ailes. Robbie co-stars as Kayla Pospisil, a fictional Fox News associate producer invented for the movie.

“Bombshell is a revealing look inside the most powerful and controversial media empire of all time: Fox News, and the explosive story of the women who brought down the infamous man who created it,” the film’s synopsis states.

Bombshell also stars John Lithgow as Ailes; Allison Janney as lawyer and Ailes legal counsel Susan Estrich; Malcolm McDowell as Fox CEO Rupert Murdoch; Mark Duplass as Kelly’s husband, Douglas Brunt; and Alice Eve as Fox & Friends co-host Ainsley Earhardt. Additionally, Kate McKinnon has been cast as a fictional producer, and Rob Delaney will play an undisclosed role.

Black teen 'humiliated' after school colored his hair with marker, parents say

Texas lawsuit says school personnel drew on the student’s scalp after it was deemed his haircut violated the dress code

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/20/texas-teenager-hair-colored-marker-school



Parents of a black teenager in Texas are suing their Houston-area school district after three white middle school personnel used a marker to blot out a design on their son’s scalp.

The federal civil rights lawsuit was filed Sunday against the Pearland independent school district (ISD) and the three staff members of Berry Miller junior high who used the marker to color the student’s scalp.

The three claimed that his “common African American ‘fade’ haircut violated the Pearland ISD dress code policy”, the lawsuit reads.

The school’s assistant principal threatened to suspend the boy if he did not have his scalp design colored. The design stood out even more when that was done, so school personnel proceeded to color his entire scalp with black marker.

“They laughed as they took many minutes to color 13-year-old J.T.’s scalp which took many days of scrubbing to come off. J.T. was immensely humiliated and shamed,” the lawsuit states.

“There are hardly any African Americans in America with jet black skin,” the court document reads.


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TRULY WTF!

'It's basic, basic, basic': Liz Plank mocks Trump's reality show behavior as recession looms.

President Donald Trump is distracting from the potential of his reality TV show behavior an MSNBC guest explained on Tuesday.

https://www.rawstory.com/2019/08/its-basic-basic-basic-liz-plank-hilariously-mocks-trumps-reality-show-behavior-as-recession-looms/

“The Beat” host Ari Melber reported, “the Trump Administration first pushing back on the criticism they have no plan for a recession. Emergency tax cuts is now something they’re offering or maybe rolling back Trump’s tariffs. And these reports, if nothing else, they concede there could be a downturn. This is important. Trump’s allies in the press have found some bizarre ways to spin the jitters claiming it’s rich coastal elites who want to lose money in a recession.”

For analysis, Melber turned to Vox Media’s Liz Plank, the author of the forthcoming book For the Love of Men: A Vision for Mindful Masculinty. Plank argued Trump was not unlike a “basic” female member of a reality TV show.

“And while this is happening, he’s talking about buying Greenland and Anthony Scaramucci. He’s clearly using his best sort of weapon which is distraction and he’s acting like a reality show star that’s about to maybe not get her second season renewed and so she’s picking fights with her friends, she’s picking fights with her enemies. And it’s basic, basic, basic,” she explained.

“But at the same time, I’m also not interested in this sort of like ‘Bachelor in Paradise’ morality edition of the Republican Party or some members realizing suddenly they want to be a good person and that they have a moral conscience two years after the president called Neo-Nazis fine people, two years after Heather Heyer was killed,” she continued. “Almost a year actually that will children have been separated [from] their parents.”

What’s going on here? You can say ‘Great, I’m calling the fireman and the firewoman,’ but you gave him the matches and so what are you going to do now? How are you going to fix it?” Plank asked. “It’s not about you. It’s about all the people harmed in this administration.”


Watch: (Video at the link above)

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