bluewater
bluewater's JournalHarry Enten on the Iowa Polling
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1186278741212880897Wow, looking at this graph we see how much both Warren and Buttigieg moved up in Iowa as Biden and Sanders moved down.
Mark Zuckerberg is offering hiring advice to Pete Buttigieg
https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1186239602002219009Amy Klobuchar says she's catching on at exactly the right time
https://twitter.com/cathleendecker/status/1186043796473237504Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) was in New York, finishing a speech to nearly 26,000 people. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) was on TV, carrying on an unexpected feud with the Democrats' last nominee for president. And Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) was getting a standing ovation from rural Democrats, an hour west of Des Moines, before sharing a story about a man she'd met in New Hampshire.
“He goes up to me, and he whispers: 'Don't say anything, but I voted for Donald Trump,' “ Klobuchar recalled. “So I go: 'Don't worry, I won't say anything.' And he goes: 'I'm not going to do it again!' “
Seventy put-upon rural Democrats laughed and burst into applause. “I don't want to overemphasize this,” Klobuchar said. “You know a lot of those Trump voters aren't going to change. But there are a segment of them, nearly 10 percent of them, who voted for Barack Obama, then voted for Donald Trump. There are a bunch of them in this state. There are a bunch of counties in this state that voted for Obama, then for Trump. We don't want to leave those counties behind.”
“If you want to peak in this race,” she said after a stop in Waterloo, “you want to peak now, instead of six months before [the caucuses].”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/paloma/the-trailer/2019/10/20/the-trailer-amy-klobuchar-says-she-s-catching-on-at-exactly-the-right-time/5daa096b602ff140839145ba/
More and more moderates are seeing Amy Klobuchar as an alternative to Joe Biden, especially after the 4th debate.
Healthcare: "how will you pay for it?"
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1186295075472629760Julian Castro announcing he needs to raise $800,000 in thede next 10 days
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1186299536836349958Buttigieg does best among Iowans who watched the 4th Dem debate
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1186249534961270784Hmmm, I didn't see the margin of error in the poll results, but margin of error for a sample size of 500 is ~ 4.3
Pete Buttigieg is definitely moving up! I would not be shocked if he wins Iowa, he's well financed, has moderate positions that appeal to Iowans, and is incredibly capable as shown in the last debate.
He might be the moderate alternative to Joe Biden. Time will tell.
Elizabeth Warren to outline how to pay for 'Medicare for All' plan
Following debate criticism, Elizabeth Warren will outline how to pay for 'Medicare for All' plan
U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren said she is planning to release information soon that outlines how she will pay for her "Medicare for All" plan.
"Right now, the cost estimates on Medicare for All vary by trillions and trillions of dollars. And the different revenue streams for how to fund it — there are a lot of them," she said to a crowd of about 475 at Simpson College. "So this is something I’ve been working on for months and months and it’s got just a little more work until it's finished."
Warren is a cosponsor of U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders' Medicare for All plan, introduced in the Senate more than. The senator from Vermont has said taxes will go up to pay for his plan, but all out-of-pocket expenses like co-pays, premiums and deductibles would be eliminated.
While Warren has been known to release robust policies and plans that details ways to pay for them, she has yet to outline how she’d pay for her public health care program.
The senator was asked pointedly by debate moderators last week whether taxes will go up to pay for her plan. Warren said her plan would reduce health care costs for middle class Americans but did not address how her plan would affect taxes.
"So, the way I see this, it is about what kinds of costs middle-class families are going to face," she said during the debate in Westerville, Ohio, last week. "So, let me be clear on this. Costs will go up for the wealthy. They will go up for big corporations. And for middle-class families, they will go down."
In Indianola on Sunday, Warren said she would not sign a Medicare for All bill "that does not reduce the cost of health care for middle class families."
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2019/10/20/iowa-caucuses-2020-elizabeth-warren-medicare-for-all-plan-costs-taxes/4046732002/
With about 4 months to go before voting starts, it's time for all the candidates to get more specific on their healthcare plans. Attention is focused on Warren though, and she needs to detail her proposal and put the funding issue to rest.
Why Warren is considered a front runner
Warren's performance in three important metrics makes her one of the front runners, possibly the front runner, in the Democratic Primary race:
1. Warren leads in the CBS News Early States Delegate Projections
Well, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee,and Arkansas ARE included in the CBS NEWS Early states projection.
2. Warren leads in one Polling Aggregate Tracking model and is second in the other.
https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/
The RCP POLLS Aggregate model has Biden +5.8 over Warren
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
Which aggregate tracker is correct? We'll have to wait for actual voting to know, but both are good tools to examine the primary polling results overall and not fixate on any single poll.
3. Warren Had Very strong 3rd Quarter Fund Raising.
OK, but how much cash on hand does Warren and the other candidates have going into the important 4th Quarter push to Super Tuesday?
Biden cash on hand sum of $8.9 million is so low that it’s almost four times lower than the $33.7 million banked by Sanders, nearly three times lower than Warren’s $25.7 million war chest and more than twice as small as Pete Buttigieg’s $23.3 million.
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/16/biden-fundraising-2020-049062
Buttigieg emerges as new threat to Biden after debate
Joe Biden faces a new threat from South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who is fresh off an eye-opening debate performance and positioning himself to be a top contender for the support of centrist Democrats if the former vice president falters.
Buttigieg has emerged as a fundraising powerhouse and will enter the final stretch before the Iowa caucuses in February flush with cash. Buttigieg has more than $23 million in the bank, compared to only $9 million for Biden, a shockingly low number for a front-runner.
The Buttigieg campaign says it raised $1 million from tens of thousands of donors in the hours after Tuesday's debate concluded.
Recent polls of Iowa show Buttigieg on the rise. The mayor has picked up 4.5 points in the past month in the RealClearPolitics average, and a Firehouse-Optimus survey released this week found him in third place at 17 percent in the Hawkeye State, within striking distance of both Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), at 25 percent, and Biden, at 22 percent.
And Buttigieg has stepped out as a fighter for moderate Democrats who feel marginalized by the left, putting him in direct conflict with Biden in the battle for centrist primary voters.
Buttigieg has aggressively gone after Warren over her "Medicare for All" proposal, accusing her of being evasive about how she'd pay for it. And he's clashed with former Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) over his mandatory gun buyback plan, which Buttigieg describes as an unrealistic and divisive proposal at a time when Congress might otherwise be able to achieve incremental gun safety reforms.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/buttigieg-emerges-as-new-threat-to-biden-after-debate/ar-AAIVbAb
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