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judeling

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Member since: Wed Nov 6, 2019, 11:33 PM
Number of posts: 1,086

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This is going to solidify the GOP split

Everybody is all in on how this is going to hurt the Democrats and put pressure on Republicans who voted with them. The Delay on Covid. The way Mitch will use it to hold up everything and drag it out.

This is wrong. The Republicans are anxious to get this behind them as fast as possible. Delay in no way helps. The more time the worse it gets for Trump. Much of the conventional wisdom is based on the media just now coming to grips with how much the power dynamics have changed. Far from working to the Republican's advantage the move to call witnesses is huge for the Democrats.

The pressure has moved to the Republican caucus, while the base is still mainly with Trump right now that is slowly changing. It isn't a rush but a constant trickle that will continue. Now with Biden pushing Covid relief and Trumps actions around the 6th the pressure to get past Trump will only increase.

Trump was Impeached while President.

What the Republicans are doing right now is denying him his chance to defend himself.
That should be our spin on their stupid argument.

And Amy had just called it a Coup

Then all hell broke out.

Lets all follow through on that language.

Senator Klobuchar seems really ready to go at Teddy boy.

She was just on Maddow and you could really see the gleam in her eye when she talked about Senator Cruz.

As ranking member on Rules she is leading our side.

Here's to a very wary christmas to you all, with the best wishes for a much happier new year.

Please all stay safe. This season it is going to get very rough.

Temperature, Shipping and distribution Pfizer

There are lots of questions about this and Pfizer has a fair fact sheet about it.

What it basically says id that Pfizer will hand off the packaging to UPS and FedEx to get to the states. Their packaging is good for 10 days and will be temperature monitored by internet enabled thermometers.

Once these packages arrive they can be stored in those ultra low temperature freezers for 6 months, or kept in the shipping containers for 30 days as long as the Dry Ice is replaced every days, or kept in a refrigerator below 45 degrees for 5 days.

You can see that with a rapid use vaccine these time constraints are really not all that bad.

Lazy or Incompetent? Why didn't Trump stop the steal?

Republicans are past masters of the "When did you stop beating your wife?" lines of attack.

We need to do better.

Trump failed, he cannot admit that so he makes an excuse. That's to be expected.

So the truth that he failed to win is unacceptable, lets make the excuse a failure also.

In the alternate reality in Trump world where he won the popular vote the first time, how is it that he let it happen again? Even with complete control of the national government he still allowed the Democrats to take the House and make major gains even in Red states. Did he lose focus? Did he leave it up to incompetent subordinates and never realized they were incompetent until to late? Did he put to much faith in allies who secretly wanted him to fail?
After that he seems to have failed to correct any of that and actually allowed to let it get worse.
He failed to stop the steal twice when he had the power to.

I'm been slowly dropping parts of that into my conversations with Trumper acquaintances and family. They make excuses, but usually after a pause. LOL it feels good anyway to argue when allowing them to start the terms. It is at least some relief.

Don't Know how I feel about Bob Dylan's big deal.

It looks like Dylan is about to sell his song catalog for somewhere around $300 million. While I understand that he is probably organizing his affairs and preparing for the end and this could help.
I really do not want to hear his tunes in commercials for indoor air conditioning. It was jarring enough to hear Elton John used to sell pants.

How will the Suburban shift effect Gerrymandering?

Concentrating your opponents votes and maximizing your own by spreading them out. In the last rounds the Republicans have been able to use their suburban bases to create a series of 55/45 districts that would support their rural base and dampen our more urban base. That has been minimized and indeed with the covid inspired work from home shift in many professions will actually begin to extend that even deeper into the ex-burbs (even just having to commute once or twice a week will have young professionals moving farther out).

Rural America has continued to lose population at least in proportion to more urban areas. Unlike the Country States do not have fixed borders for their Senates and so will be forced to shift, in addition the most powerful members of the caucuses will to a large extent come from the safest districts and so will be the first protected. That means that Rural districts will have to grow larger in area making it more difficult to slice the remainder into semi-safe districts.

Lets look at my home state Minnesota. Now we are likely to lose a CD (we are always on the cusp). We will have our districts drawn outside of the legislative process because the Republicans were able to hold onto their one seat senate majority. What has to happen is that the demographic center is going to move south and east into more Democratic favoring territory. We are now 4/4 what will happen is that we will shift to a 3 solid Blue 3 solid Red and 1 Purple with most likely a Blue tint. Looking deeper at the State races just a quick look at the results so far sees at least a 3 seat gain in the State Senate and probably more like 5. A 6-10 seat swing puts Minnesota solid blue. The House follows the Senate borders.

This dynamic will play out everywhere. As it does even in states with Republicans in total control like Georgia or even Texas the next part of the dynamic comes into play. That is in the gerrymandered districts favoring the Republicans using the Suburbs Republicans are going to have to run as more moderate candidates. They got by with it this cycle because they could be Trumpy enough to get past the Primaries. That wont be available in the next two cycles and so the battles will be played out. So even Republican legislators are going to be more cautious to protect their own seats. So the gerrymandering will in my opinion be much more subdued this time then last time.

Can we Buy Trump's Debt

Have to get the lawyers here on it. But it would be a wonderful counter narrative to set up.
As has been pointed out the bank holding the majority of it is shopping it so we could probably get it at a bit of a discount. Which of course would be huge politically.
The Debt is a huge national security risk and so the attempt would be able to highlight it, put that in the founding documents.

If we set this up right it would be a huge burr under the saddle. If we set it up in a way that monies raised would go to 2022 senate candidate challenge funds if it fails and/or the money realized from it does so, it could also generate a Red state response which would double the effect.

Lets not forget how much of his power derives from the successful businessman image, damaging that would have a huge impact.
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