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Member since: Wed Nov 6, 2019, 11:33 PM
Number of posts: 691

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I'm Happy for Amy, But sad for Cory and others.

This is not a political feeling. It is just we have had so many good candidates in the race that never got a chance in the sun.

All candidates can't hope to get is a chance to make their cases. I'm just happy for her that she has managed to get her chance even if the sun ends up burning.

Amy's Favorite Stat

Darn she is good

I love her campaign manager smiling once he see where she is heading.

Need a Job with Amy


So it seems that in the last week since the debate Amy is going to match all of her last quarters fundraising with online donations alone.

Amy may match 4th quarter fundraising this week alone

It appears that since the Debate Amy has raised &7-8 million in online fundraising. Last quarter she raised just over $11 million.

That $8 million doesn't include the rest of the money coming in from her professional/campaign fundraising efforts.

Because her campaign is running with so little overhead compared to all the others, this money can be applied almost directly to Advertising and Expansions.

It may be a lean operation, but right now it is a very Flexible one.

Amy has done what nobody else has, incorporated the HOW.

After watching the CNN town halls, it has become very clear to me I made the right choice in who I am supporting.

It is very clear she has thought the whole thing out not just the what but how to get it done and the how that meshes with the other. If that did work then we do this that leads to that the gives us what we wanted,

It is a beautiful web that is not composed of a peoples army or logical persuasion or moral persuasion or some return to a golden past of cooperation. Just normal self-interest. The real world in other words. Basically she is offering to be LBJ without the war.

I Like Mike but for SoS

As the tagline goes "With over 1700 reporters and analysts, in 120 countries, this is Bloomberg News".

People forget what a huge international player Mike Bloomberg is. Biden can talk about his relationships with world leaders, but Bloomberg can match him and is more current and wider spread.

In the jumble of Nation States, Corporate players ad Media that international relations is today there is probably no other person as well prepared. There is probably no other single individual that would be as reassuring to the world and the Foreign Service while at the same time announcing a break from the old ways as Bloomberg.

Repairing and rebuilding our standing in the world and the apparatus that supports that, will be as big a task for our next president as any. Having a man as capable of doing that and Mike Bloomberg should have him on all of our candidates short list for Secretary of State.

Emerson NH Tracker Pete +5 bump

Todays Tracking Poll showed Bernie staying o top with Pete moving up to second with a 5 point bump.

Biden, Warren and Klobuchar essentially tied in third.

This is a tracking poll and I only use it for trends,

Pre Iowa Numbers NH tracker

Sanders 32
Biden and Warren 13
Buttigieg and Klobuchar 12

Emerson Polling is running a tracking poll for ew Hampshire leading up to the Primary. The last one was in the field Feb 1-3, tomorrows will be in the field 2-today. This is essentially a 3 day moving average. So we should start to see any bump tomorrow.

The difference between yesterday and today was a 3 point bump for Bernie and a 4 point bump for Klobuchar.

Go ahead over the next couple of days to ignore the actual numbers. But the trends it shows will tell us a lot.

Ok Amy was having a pretty good night but now has even a better chance

It was clear early on last night that Amy was doing much better then her Poll numbers showed. But it didn't appear it was quite good enough to retain viability in a lot of precincts that the media was there for but it was really close. What is more it also appears that the numbers reported from various sources do not really show much of the Rural areas.

But most interesting from all the early coverage was that she was doing so well that the media really was paying attention.

With her getting out first with her speech she was able to really set a positive message. What is more Buttigieg played it wrong.

So ow with New Hampshire looming bigger Buttigieg by claiming victory has set expectations way to high without a real narrative to back it up and so plays right into the arrogance narrative that has been developing. That and the fact that it looked like Amy had caught Joe reshapes the experience narrative,

She actually will end up gaining from Iowa and the mess it has become.

Iowa Beware polls

Polling averages 4 days before Caucus and actual

2016 (R)
Donald Trump 31.2% 24.3% -6.9
Ted Cruz 26.5 27.6 +1.1
Marco Rubio 13.6 23.1 +9.5
Carson 9.0 9.3 +0.3
Jeb Bush 4.6 2.8 -1.8
Rand Paul 3.7 4.5 +0.8
Chris Christie 3.3 1.8 -1.5
Mike Huckabee 2.6 1.8 -0.8

2016 (D)
Hillary Clinton 49.4 49.9 +0.5
Sanders 45.8 49.6 +3.8

2012 (R)
Mitt Romney 23.8 24.5 +0.7
Ron Paul 23.0 21.4 -1.6
Newt Gingrich 15.8 13.3 -2.5
Rick Perry 12.3 10.3 -2.0
Rick Santorum 11.2 24.6 +13.4

2008 (D)
Hillary Clinton 31.4 29.5 -1.9
Barack Obama 27.3 37.6 +10.3
John Edwards 24.6 29.8 +5.2
Bill Richardson 8.0 2.1 -5.9
Biden 5.9 0.9 -5.0

There are big surprises all the time.
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