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Member since: Wed Nov 6, 2019, 11:33 PM
Number of posts: 719

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Pre Iowa Numbers NH tracker

Sanders 32
Biden and Warren 13
Buttigieg and Klobuchar 12

Emerson Polling is running a tracking poll for ew Hampshire leading up to the Primary. The last one was in the field Feb 1-3, tomorrows will be in the field 2-today. This is essentially a 3 day moving average. So we should start to see any bump tomorrow.

The difference between yesterday and today was a 3 point bump for Bernie and a 4 point bump for Klobuchar.

Go ahead over the next couple of days to ignore the actual numbers. But the trends it shows will tell us a lot.

Ok Amy was having a pretty good night but now has even a better chance

It was clear early on last night that Amy was doing much better then her Poll numbers showed. But it didn't appear it was quite good enough to retain viability in a lot of precincts that the media was there for but it was really close. What is more it also appears that the numbers reported from various sources do not really show much of the Rural areas.

But most interesting from all the early coverage was that she was doing so well that the media really was paying attention.

With her getting out first with her speech she was able to really set a positive message. What is more Buttigieg played it wrong.

So ow with New Hampshire looming bigger Buttigieg by claiming victory has set expectations way to high without a real narrative to back it up and so plays right into the arrogance narrative that has been developing. That and the fact that it looked like Amy had caught Joe reshapes the experience narrative,

She actually will end up gaining from Iowa and the mess it has become.

Iowa Beware polls

Polling averages 4 days before Caucus and actual

2016 (R)
Donald Trump 31.2% 24.3% -6.9
Ted Cruz 26.5 27.6 +1.1
Marco Rubio 13.6 23.1 +9.5
Carson 9.0 9.3 +0.3
Jeb Bush 4.6 2.8 -1.8
Rand Paul 3.7 4.5 +0.8
Chris Christie 3.3 1.8 -1.5
Mike Huckabee 2.6 1.8 -0.8

2016 (D)
Hillary Clinton 49.4 49.9 +0.5
Sanders 45.8 49.6 +3.8

2012 (R)
Mitt Romney 23.8 24.5 +0.7
Ron Paul 23.0 21.4 -1.6
Newt Gingrich 15.8 13.3 -2.5
Rick Perry 12.3 10.3 -2.0
Rick Santorum 11.2 24.6 +13.4

2008 (D)
Hillary Clinton 31.4 29.5 -1.9
Barack Obama 27.3 37.6 +10.3
John Edwards 24.6 29.8 +5.2
Bill Richardson 8.0 2.1 -5.9
Biden 5.9 0.9 -5.0

There are big surprises all the time.

Amy has Real Momentum

538 has a good story out right now.
Election Update: Is Klobuchar Having A Last-Minute Surge In Iowa?

Oh please Oh please let it be Amy

Watching the madness of the impeachment trail. I really, really want to punish these clowns. I mean really.
For as much as Klobuchar projects her Minnesota nice, and is actually a nice person, she has a mean streak also. Of all the candidates in the field right now she is the one I expect will take all the power just granted and use it to stick to the republicans and destroy them over the next couple of years.

She knows where to and who to apply the pressure on.

end of rant.

Amy in Iowa last night


Some really good local press and Katy Tur gushing on MSNBC.

With Polls showing a definite upward slope she is becoming a major factor and really can no longer be overlooked.

Lots of surrogate events and Governor Walz coming who had a Congressional district that shared the entire northern border and media for years that will only ramp up.

That and her home staff and volunteers are busing in for field support.

A big push.

Amy's in Iowa tonight

Are Warren and Sanders?

Good staff work to through that together.

Iowa: Emerson Poll real news Klobuchar in 3rd


This is only +3 for Klobuchar. Only one poll and of course this doesn't tell us much.

But if Klobuchar actually finished third in Iowa that would be a bigger story then a Sanders win. It would fundamentally reshape the race. First it would severely damage both Warren and Buttigieg. It would probably put Sanders in the commanding position to claim the progressive wing and with a win in NH put warren out of the race in practice if not in reality.

An earthquake actually.

Siena/NYT Poll just below the surface

With this poll it now looks like Bernie is going to win Iowa. The race will shift, and the order of finish will tell us how.

But if you look into the second choice crosstabs there are some clues.
First Bernie's second choice from Warren has dropped from 64% to 44%. That seems to show that the consolidation of the progressive wing will be a lot less robust then people are assuming.

Klobuchar has now overtaken Buttigieg in second choice. When you see that Buttigieg support is highly concentrated and that his second choice support is very weak there, It appears he will not be able to maximize those wins. That indicates he is likely to underperform his polls.

Warren and Klobuchar bot overperform in second choice. Both of their second choice is higher then their first that is not true of the other three. That indicates that both will overperform.

If I had to guess right now it would be Bernie, Biden, Warren, Buttigieg and Klobuchar. This will actually give Biden a good shot at NH.

Campaigning is fun also

People sometimes forget that there is lots of humor and joy for the candidates also.

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