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judeling

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Member since: Wed Nov 6, 2019, 11:33 PM
Number of posts: 717

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Oh please Oh please let it be Amy

Watching the madness of the impeachment trail. I really, really want to punish these clowns. I mean really.
For as much as Klobuchar projects her Minnesota nice, and is actually a nice person, she has a mean streak also. Of all the candidates in the field right now she is the one I expect will take all the power just granted and use it to stick to the republicans and destroy them over the next couple of years.

She knows where to and who to apply the pressure on.

end of rant.

Amy in Iowa last night

https://twitter.com/amyklobuchar/status/1222367807565897728

Some really good local press and Katy Tur gushing on MSNBC.

With Polls showing a definite upward slope she is becoming a major factor and really can no longer be overlooked.

Lots of surrogate events and Governor Walz coming who had a Congressional district that shared the entire northern border and media for years that will only ramp up.

That and her home staff and volunteers are busing in for field support.

A big push.

Amy's in Iowa tonight

Are Warren and Sanders?

Good staff work to through that together.

Iowa: Emerson Poll real news Klobuchar in 3rd

[link:https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1221613796487098369/photo/1|

This is only +3 for Klobuchar. Only one poll and of course this doesn't tell us much.

But if Klobuchar actually finished third in Iowa that would be a bigger story then a Sanders win. It would fundamentally reshape the race. First it would severely damage both Warren and Buttigieg. It would probably put Sanders in the commanding position to claim the progressive wing and with a win in NH put warren out of the race in practice if not in reality.

An earthquake actually.

Siena/NYT Poll just below the surface

With this poll it now looks like Bernie is going to win Iowa. The race will shift, and the order of finish will tell us how.

But if you look into the second choice crosstabs there are some clues.
First Bernie's second choice from Warren has dropped from 64% to 44%. That seems to show that the consolidation of the progressive wing will be a lot less robust then people are assuming.

Klobuchar has now overtaken Buttigieg in second choice. When you see that Buttigieg support is highly concentrated and that his second choice support is very weak there, It appears he will not be able to maximize those wins. That indicates he is likely to underperform his polls.

Warren and Klobuchar bot overperform in second choice. Both of their second choice is higher then their first that is not true of the other three. That indicates that both will overperform.

If I had to guess right now it would be Bernie, Biden, Warren, Buttigieg and Klobuchar. This will actually give Biden a good shot at NH.

Campaigning is fun also

People sometimes forget that there is lots of humor and joy for the candidates also.

[link:https://twitter.com/i/status/1220783326467784705|

I have a good feeling

First let me say that if Amy runs the government as well as she has her campaign she will rival Reagan/LBJ on reelection.

While I don't know what will happen, I really think she is about to over perform in Iowa. The question is by how much. If what was happening in Iowa and New Hampshire while she was stuck in Washington is any reflection of the strength of her organization on caucus night, then it may be even better then just a surprise finish. If that happens then all bets are off.

Understanding Realignment Second round is Sudden Death

There is a deeply embedded narrative about the Iowa caucus that is flat out wrong.
The first round does not eliminate a candidate.

(6) Only members of groups that are declared not viable shall be given sufficient time, but no less than 15 minutes, to realign with a viable preference group or to realign with other nonviable group members to form a viable preference group. Only one (1) round of realignment is allowed. Fig. 1, on the next page, shows sample calculations to determine the viability threshold for a caucus.

a) Members of groups that are declared viable may not realign.

b) Once a group has been declared viable, that groupís relative strength cannot decrease, regardless of the number of members who remain present throughout the rest of the caucus business.
bolding is mine.

Because this misinformation of the first round elimination narrative is so embedded now and reinforced almost constantly when the rules are discussed, the in person organizational strength of a campaign will play a big part in the final outcome. As will the firmness of candidate support.

Will Iowa have a Tribute/Protest vote?

The Iowa Democratic party has changed their rules and their reporting.

Instead of multiple rounds of realignment there will be a single round. It is this second round that counts. The party will also report three sets of numbers. The vote by candidate of the first and second rounds and the Delegate equivalent of the second round (think electoral college). It is only that delegate count that really matters.

But this actually allows supporters of former candidates even if they have since switch to have a final chance to show that support and or protest of the process. A Booker, Harris, Castro or even a Beto supporter could register that support in the first round before realigning in the second and actually have their vote count twice at least in narrative terms.

While I don't in any way think that this will be a large number, it could be enough on the margins to send an interesting message to the DNC.

Voting Starts Friday

The early Primary voting starts in[link:http://vote.minneapolismn.gov/voters/absentee| Minnesota on the 17th.
]
So it is now really on.
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