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Wavelight

Profile Information

Gender: Male
Hometown: Illinois
Home country: USA
Member since: Wed Dec 11, 2019, 07:27 PM
Number of posts: 333

Journal Archives

Wasserman on early FL voting

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323605625071407104?s=20

Less than A DAY AWAY: How are people feeling?

May find you fluctuate between choices, but pick where you are spending the *most* time lol

I'm cautiously optimistic...

Final Data For Progress National Poll: Biden +10

https://twitter.com/SeanMcElwee/status/1322990450760962052?s=20

Reuters/Ipsos: MI, PA, WI (good news)

Oct 27-Nov 1

MI
Biden 52%
Trump 42%

PA
Biden 51%
Trump 44%

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-election-battleground-poll

WI - 696 LV, MoE: 3.5%
Biden 53%
Trump 43%
Other 2%
Not sure 2%

With leaners:
Biden 53%
Trump 45%

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-11/topline_reuters_wisconsin_state_poll_w6_11_1_2020_.pdf

FL - AtlasIntel: tie

Oct 28-29, 786 LV, MoE: 3%

Biden 49%
Trump 49%
Other 3%

Trump approval: 48/51 (-3)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20201031_FL_AtlasIntel.pdf

PA-Muhlenberg: Biden +5

https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/contentassets/pdf/about/polling/surveys/pennsylvania/FINAL_PA_ELEC2020_LATE_OCT_REPORT%20(1)%20(1).pdf

Oct 23-28, 419 LV, MoE: 5.5%

Changes from Oct 13-20.

Biden 49% (-2)
Trump 44% (n/c)
Neither/other 4% (+2)
Not sure 2% (-2)

Trump approval: 45/49 (-4)

Favorabilities:
Trump - 41/52 (-11)
Biden - 38/45 (-7)

NC Polls - this will go down to the wire...

Survey USA: dead even (48/48)

https://wwwcache.wral.com/asset/news/state/nccapitol/2020/10/27/19356729/PollPrint-DMID1-5onuvxx1t.pdf

Ipsos: Biden +1
Public Policy Polling: Biden +4
RMG Research: Biden +1

I know we donít need it. I want it.

So now NC?

JFC. So heís not going to accept any results other than whatís counted on election night?

And Iíd like to be convinced why the courts wonít back himÖ

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1321149921270108162?s=20

PA: Insider Advantage (B-) Trump +3

https://twitter.com/thechrisbuskirk/status/1320772034469654528?s=20

Post-debate poll. The same poll had Biden in the lead less than two weeks ago. Not a trend I want to accept...

Why? InsiderAdvantageís Matt Towery explained why things have moved in Trumpís favor:

ďThese results indicate a stark shift in the contest. Our last survey of Pennsylvania showed Joe Biden leading Trump by three points. But that survey was before the last debate. Since the debate Trump has picked up support from younger voters, who based on our prior survey strongly oppose future lockdowns over Covid-19 spikes. Trump has also bolstered his lead among male voters by some twelve points. Biden continues to hold a seven point advantage over Trump among female voters. It would be nothing more than mere conjecture to attempt to correlate Bidenís statements on energy and fracking in the last debate contest with the shift towards Trump in this survey. However, Trump saw gains even among senior voters which have not been his strong suit this election cycle. That suggests that some issue or set of events has caused a late shift in the contest.Ē

538 Election Simulator

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/

This is really cool. Itís similar to the website 270towin.com, where you click a state to make it Red or Blue and compile an electoral count. But for this one, if you choose an outcome for a state, you see how it affects the odds of either candidate winning the election or it how changes the odds in other states.
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