October 31, 2020

FL - AtlasIntel: tie

Oct 28-29, 786 LV, MoE: 3%

Biden 49%
Trump 49%
Other 3%

Trump approval: 48/51 (-3)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20201031_FL_AtlasIntel.pdf

October 31, 2020

PA-Muhlenberg: Biden +5

https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/contentassets/pdf/about/polling/surveys/pennsylvania/FINAL_PA_ELEC2020_LATE_OCT_REPORT%20(1)%20(1).pdf

Oct 23-28, 419 LV, MoE: 5.5%

Changes from Oct 13-20.

Biden 49% (-2)
Trump 44% (n/c)
Neither/other 4% (+2)
Not sure 2% (-2)

Trump approval: 45/49 (-4)

Favorabilities:
Trump - 41/52 (-11)
Biden - 38/45 (-7)

October 27, 2020

NC Polls - this will go down to the wire...

Survey USA: dead even (48/48)

https://wwwcache.wral.com/asset/news/state/nccapitol/2020/10/27/19356729/PollPrint-DMID1-5onuvxx1t.pdf

Ipsos: Biden +1
Public Policy Polling: Biden +4
RMG Research: Biden +1

I know we don’t need it. I want it.

October 27, 2020

So now NC?

JFC. So he’s not going to accept any results other than what’s counted on election night?

And I’d like to be convinced why the courts won’t back him…

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1321149921270108162?s=20

October 26, 2020

PA: Insider Advantage (B-) Trump +3

https://twitter.com/thechrisbuskirk/status/1320772034469654528?s=20

Post-debate poll. The same poll had Biden in the lead less than two weeks ago. Not a trend I want to accept...

Why? InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery explained why things have moved in Trump’s favor:

“These results indicate a stark shift in the contest. Our last survey of Pennsylvania showed Joe Biden leading Trump by three points. But that survey was before the last debate. Since the debate Trump has picked up support from younger voters, who based on our prior survey strongly oppose future lockdowns over Covid-19 spikes. Trump has also bolstered his lead among male voters by some twelve points. Biden continues to hold a seven point advantage over Trump among female voters. It would be nothing more than mere conjecture to attempt to correlate Biden’s statements on energy and fracking in the last debate contest with the shift towards Trump in this survey. However, Trump saw gains even among senior voters which have not been his strong suit this election cycle. That suggests that some issue or set of events has caused a late shift in the contest.”

October 21, 2020

538 Election Simulator

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/

This is really cool. It’s similar to the website 270towin.com, where you click a state to make it Red or Blue and compile an electoral count. But for this one, if you choose an outcome for a state, you see how it affects the odds of either candidate winning the election or it how changes the odds in other states.

October 19, 2020

Are the polls wrong?

What to make of this... Provides some perspective outside of traditional polls

https://fortune.com/2020/10/14/polls-trump-biden-presidential-race-artificial-intelligence/?fbclid=IwAR3ro9cJm22aA8aN4wpkDC5fMBFKFsbZ4rxyVcXqEeCg1SUwWbOAlYfGX-Q