CalFione
CalFione's JournalHidden in the ABC Poll
Among white college-educated women (the group that delivered the 2018 midterm wave to the Democrats):
VS Trump:
Buttigieg +17%
Bloomberg +12%
Klobuchar +11%
Biden +10%
Warren +4%
Sanders +2%
https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1211a12020Politics.pdf
How much can the debate in NV tonight really impact the caucus results?
Considering more than half of the likely Nevada caucus goers have already voted?
This debate is more likely to impact South Carolina than Nevada.
Why does Briahna Joy Gray keep "misspeaking"?
First, she claimed there were 64 sexual assault allegations against Mike Bloomberg. There were not. There were 64 sexual assault allegations against Bloomberg Corp - meaning, the whole company of tens of thousands of employees.
Then, she claimed that Mike Bloomberg has had heart attacks in his past. He has not.
She's either incompetent and should be fired... or she is a pathological liar and should be fired.
The REAL "75% against Bernie" thing
Here's an easy analogy to follow.
It's 2016 and we put a representative sample of 20 voters in a room.
11 support Hillary Clinton
9 support Bernie Sanders
Now, it is four years later, and we put those same 20 voters in a room.
5 support Bernie Sanders
3 support Elizabeth Warren
3 support Pete Buttigieg
3 support Amy Klobuchar
3 support Joe Biden
3 support Mike Bloomberg
Five candidates have grown their support from 0 to 3. One candidate has shrunk his support from 9 to 5.
The candidate with 5 claims his campaign is a "movement that is growing and super-enthusiastic". Despite having a 4 year head start and a base of support, the campaign is not *growing* at all. It is shrinking.
A "movement" would have held those 9 supporters from 2016 at a minimum.
Bradley Whitford, of "The West Wing" fame
https://twitter.com/BradleyWhitford/status/1229997942787854337How the debate is going to go down tomorrow night
- The first question will be right to Bloomberg, and it will be about Stop & Frisk.
- He'll give a canned apology that he has practiced, and attempt to pivot to some things he says he is doing for people of color.
- Each of the other candidates, starting with Bernie, will chime in in response about how horrible Bloomberg is. This will play right into Bloomberg's hands by making him the focus of the debate, subliminally elevating him to a front-runner in the minds of the viewers. 6 against 1 almost *ALWAYS* plays well for the 1.
- The next question will be about Bloomberg's wealth... again, playing into Bloomberg's hands to make the debate about *HIM*. This is how Trump defeated a bunch of Republicans in 2016. They all tried to join together to attack him, and it only proved to elevate him.
- It will be at least 30 minutes into the debate before any question gets asked that isn't directly or indirectly about Bloomberg. This will be a massive win for Bloomberg - even though he is 5'8", it will make him look like a giant among dwarfs.
- Everybody trying to be the "not Bloomberg", including Bernie, on that stage will make voters see Bloomberg as more formidable than he is.
I believe this is the mistake that Bernie will make tomorrow, and the others might do it as well. They will elevate Bloomberg by griping about Bloomberg.
Gripe about Bloomberg's money?
The voters will get the message that Bloomberg has the cash to take down Trump.
Gripe about Bloomberg's former status as a Republican?
The voters will get the message that this guy can get stuff passed through a divided congress.
Gripe about Bloomberg's stop-and-frisk policies or off-color comments?
Bloomberg will be given many opportunities to apologize and ask forgiveness. Bill Clinton mastered the art of turning apologies into support.
I hope my candidate, Amy Klobuchar, doesn't fall for this trap.
My advice to Amy is this - take every opportunity you are given to speak and turn it back into how you contrast with Trump.
Talk like a front-runner and people will see you as one.
Talk *PAST* Bloomberg and Bernie and go directly to the voters. This is what worked so well for you in the NH debate.
Let people see you as a PRESIDENT - not as someone sniping and griping about Bloomberg.
One of the key moments of the 2008 debates is when Obama said "you're likeable enough, Hillary". It initially seems like a compliment, but it cuts to the core and reminds everyone of the opponent's weak spot. Bernie had a similar moment in 2016 with his "nobody gives a damn about your emails" comment to Hillary. Again, it initially looks like a compliment - but reminds viewers of the opponent's weak spot.
The candidate that spins the Bloomberg weak spots in such a way - "I don't believe Mike's 60 billion dollars are an issue" will help themselves.
The candidate that spins Bernie's age and health in such a way - "I don't think Bernie's recent heart attack is an issue, I trust that he is fine" will help themselves.
They'll be reminding voters of Mike and Bernie's weak spots, while sounding complimentary. This comes off magnanimous in the viewers' minds.
Pete's not my top choice, but he had a very good town hall on CNN
His answers were well-thought out, he was good off the cuff, and he showed wit and a sense of humor.
Hidden within the NBC/WSJ poll
In the states that will decide the election:
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1229896199181918208
ON EDIT: Warren is 47 to 46 vs Trump (+1). The original tweeter left her off inadvertently.
21 of our primaries are open primaries. That's insane.
It allows for complete ratf***ing by the GOP whenever there is not a competitive race on their side.
There should be no such thing as an open primary. We're inviting our opposition to pick our candidate for us.
And they're doing just that.
He is trying to distract from something REALLY big with these pardons
Otherwise, he would trickle them out one at a time.
He's trying to take away a news cycle from something else. What is about to drop?
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