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Shermann

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Member since: Sat Feb 22, 2020, 12:55 PM
Number of posts: 3,306

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Contracting a reported case of CV-19 is similar to aging this many years

I'm somewhat fascinated with actuarial life tables and have done a rough calculation here.

In 2018 there were 867.8 deaths per 100,000 population in the US. The average death probability is thus .87%. A 56-year-old male has a death probability closest to this based on the Social Security 2015 Period Life Table:

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6_2015.html

So this group can be thought of as the median. Half of the deaths will be younger people, and the other half will be older. So they will have similar mortality characteristics as the country as a whole.

The case fatality rate for CV-19 in the US is 1.7%.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

If you add the 1.7% to the median group death probability, the result is 2.57%. This is close to the death probability for a 71-year-old male.

Contracting a reported case of CV-19 is similar to aging 15 years in terms of mortality. I wonder...is it also similar in terms of long-haul symptoms? Perhaps those recovered don't get all of those years back.

The War on the Deep State

Trump is waging a war on the election process which has involved an all-out propagandistic media blitz, vague and not-so-vague allegations of fraud, and sixty lawsuits (and counting). He has attempted to impress the Republican governors, the Attorney General, and even the SCOTUS into service in this war. This is the War on the Deep State.

It is important to frame this struggle in this way. It takes all of the allegations of a Deep State made by the right wing and connects them to the outcome. There can only be three as I see it:

1) The massive election fraud is uncovered (the largest crime in US history) and the Deep State is revealed and defeated
2) The election is not overturned, however the high degree of scrutiny employed finally reveals the Deep State
3) No trace of a Deep State is found (the "nothing burger" outcome). This equates to evidence of absence. Spoiler alert: this is where we are headed.

Trump has had to enter falsifiable territory out of sheer desperation. His Republican lapdogs have had to follow along behind him.

The "War on the Deep State" talking point blows up the "Deep State" talking point. "Release the Kraken" does not.



MAGAnarok

The Ragnarök is a great battle in Norse mythology which is preluded by a mighty blow of the Gjallarhorn.

The MAGAnarok is a hopeless battle fought in modernity against the dark forces of the "Deep State" to overturn an election.

Trump blew the battle horn, but Bill Barr turned tail and ran from the battlefield! Giuliani is fighting viciously, but he is nothing more than a sellsword. Ted Cruz has offered his sword, but his motives are suspect. The Supreme Court refused to bend the knee.

Where I ask are the MAGA stalwarts charging fearlessly and selflessly at the enemy horde?

The kill shot from Warnock we didn't get

"Senator Loeffler tap dances around the very straightforward question of whether the election has been decided or not. This is over a month past election day. Georgians have cast their vote and I hear you loud and clear. Senator Loeffler, however, prefers to sit idly by while you are dragged through this charade of bogus investigations and sham court cases. Her fealty is with her party and with President Trump, not with Georgians. Vote for real leadership instead of shoulder shrugs after January 7."

Matt Dillahunty - What does the Bible say about Abortion?

Can the fallacy of conservative news be objectively demonstrated?

When it comes to the characterization of past events, it can be difficult to prove the talking heads on the conservative news are full of it. It all gets really subjective really quickly.

However, when it comes to the prediction of future events, it is a much different situation. While nobody can predict the future reliably, it is possible to maximize the times you are close and minimize the times you are way off by basing your predications on sound information to start with.

That said, 2020 has been a tough year for conservative news predictions:

- The virus will magically go away
- The virus will be like the flu
- Hydroxychloroquine will be a significant therapeutic
- Trump will win the election in a landslide
- Sweden is showing the way through herd immunity
- The media will forget about coronavirus after the election
- The Hunter Biden story will be a major scandal
- Six million fraudulent votes will be found in the presidential election (the greatest unprosecuted crime in American history as it sits today)
- The economy will make a V-shaped recovery

This is just off the top of my head. Can a comparable list of bad MSM predictions be compiled? These here aren't just bad, they are dangerously bad. Conservatives have mastered the art of the false equivalence, can their best and brightest possibly pull this off?

So Black Friday was a bust then?

Reports are trickling in that the brick and mortars saw small crowds today. This is no surprise really.

Wall Street seems unfazed by this with the Dow up slightly. So that's a bit surprising, the disconnect there continues.

There could be a blowout Cyber Monday, or perhaps people will preserve their cash right now.

Let's put the United States Electoral College to task!

I say we abolish the Supreme Court, and let the Electoral College vote on these cases. We go to great trouble to form this slate every four years, and they only perform a single function (and poorly at that).

This has a number of advantages over the current scheme:

1) These delegates will only serve for four years instead of having lifetime appointments
2) These delegates are volunteers, so we can lay off the nine justices and recoup all the employment costs
3) These 538 delegates provide their own remote offices, so we can repurpose the Supreme Court building for something better
4) The damage a single rogue or "faithless" delegate can cause is quite limited

The Supreme Court justices have been voting strictly along partisan lines of late, so their votes are entirely predictable. So to that end, we don't need all these fancy-schmancy Juris Doctor degrees. We can task Tom, Dick, and Sally with these cases and get pretty much the same majority rule outcome without all the fuss.

College-educated white men

Did Biden win this demographic in 2020? I can't seem to find conclusive data at the national level, just a mishmash of regional exit poll results.

Hillary's loss versus Trump's loss

Hillary (won popular vote): lost by landslide, key mistakes by campaign, out of touch with America, Democrats need to go back to drawing board

Trump (lost popular vote): tremendous turnout, grass roots campaign, rejection of Democratic agenda, Republicans need to build on momentum

I'm hearing these talking points on conservative news as well as the MSM. Am I missing something?
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